Guess how much snow will fall at Dulles airport in Washington DC tomorrow.
I'll go with 5.7 inches
New contest Deadline is Midnight tonight
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Stormsfury
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Hmmm.....this is going to be a toughie ....
RUC, ETA, and GFS moisture fields haven't done worth a crap in regards to QPF - see eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee snowfall reports for this ... However, the secondary low now developing off the South Carolina coast ... a definite quick hitting storm ...
Based on the data I have right now, I am only calling for 2"-4" snowfalls based on radar trends, and possible underdone QPF's fields.
RUC, ETA, and GFS moisture fields haven't done worth a crap in regards to QPF - see eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee snowfall reports for this ... However, the secondary low now developing off the South Carolina coast ... a definite quick hitting storm ...
Based on the data I have right now, I am only calling for 2"-4" snowfalls based on radar trends, and possible underdone QPF's fields.
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wx247
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I am going to say 4.5" of snow for Dulles.
Garrett
Garrett
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormsfury
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I don't know Rob, however, I knew I shoulda gone with my gut feeling. (even less than what I had up there: 2"-4" was too aggressive I believe in hindsight) Coastal Low took over and Washington, DC got dryslotted.
Last edited by Stormsfury on Mon Feb 10, 2003 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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Stormsfury
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The coastal low is taking over and going to "Bomb" rapidly off the coast. In evidence, a few thunderstorms broke out in my area with the temperatures in the upper 40's earlier this morning.
I did see a 5.0" report from a COOP -observer, however, I suspect DC Dulles got less ... temperature 34, light snow.
I did see a 5.0" report from a COOP -observer, however, I suspect DC Dulles got less ... temperature 34, light snow.
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Stormsfury
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And the winner is ....
Hmmmm ...... no one ..... Dulles only received a trace ...
I called for 2"-4" aggressively just solely on radar trends, and not the RUC/ETA/GFS models due to poor performance in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. However, by the time the 850mb low got into NC, the moisture was transferring to the new developing surface low in evidence of the thunderstorms that developed in Florida overnight. So the dynamically driven 300mb jet, and 850mb WAA-VKNT were greatest in North Carolina, the moisture was on the wane. I should have seen this coming, and went with the original thinking of 1"-3" in DC (Dulles) and more like 1"-2".
Pfffhh.... it was even worse!!!!. DULLES ONLY GOT A TRACE ....
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
436 PM EST MON FEB 10 2003
...................................
...THE WASHINGTON DULLES CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 10 2003...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1962 TO 2003
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 35 359 PM 63 1990 44 -9 48
2001
MINIMUM 29 326 AM -10 1979 23 6 30
AVERAGE 32 34 -2 39
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.05 0.65 1970 0.10 -0.05 0.08
MONTH TO DATE 0.84 0.95 -0.11 0.28
SINCE DEC 1 7.14 7.07 0.07 3.06
SINCE JAN 1 3.53 4.00 -0.47 1.50
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY T
MONTH TO DATE 6.1 2.6 3.5 T
SINCE DEC 1 19.4 12.9 6.5 2.6
SINCE JUL 1 19.4 13.8 5.6 2.6
SNOW DEPTH 2
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 33 31 2 26
MONTH TO DATE 327 322 5 273
SINCE DEC 1 2426 2231 195 1795
SINCE JUL 1 3408 3208 200 2598
COOLING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE DEC 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JAN 1 0 0 0 0
..................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SW (210)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 15 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (200)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 3.7
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
SNOW
LIGHT SNOW
FOG
FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 800 AM
LOWEST 69 100 AM
AVERAGE 85
..........................................................
THE WASHINGTON DULLES CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 44 67 1999
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 23 -7 1979
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
FEBRUARY 10 2003......SUNRISE 707 AM EST SUNSET 541 PM EST
FEBRUARY 11 2003......SUNRISE 706 AM EST SUNSET 542 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
I called for 2"-4" aggressively just solely on radar trends, and not the RUC/ETA/GFS models due to poor performance in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. However, by the time the 850mb low got into NC, the moisture was transferring to the new developing surface low in evidence of the thunderstorms that developed in Florida overnight. So the dynamically driven 300mb jet, and 850mb WAA-VKNT were greatest in North Carolina, the moisture was on the wane. I should have seen this coming, and went with the original thinking of 1"-3" in DC (Dulles) and more like 1"-2".
Pfffhh.... it was even worse!!!!. DULLES ONLY GOT A TRACE ....
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
436 PM EST MON FEB 10 2003
...................................
...THE WASHINGTON DULLES CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 10 2003...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1962 TO 2003
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 35 359 PM 63 1990 44 -9 48
2001
MINIMUM 29 326 AM -10 1979 23 6 30
AVERAGE 32 34 -2 39
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.05 0.65 1970 0.10 -0.05 0.08
MONTH TO DATE 0.84 0.95 -0.11 0.28
SINCE DEC 1 7.14 7.07 0.07 3.06
SINCE JAN 1 3.53 4.00 -0.47 1.50
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY T
MONTH TO DATE 6.1 2.6 3.5 T
SINCE DEC 1 19.4 12.9 6.5 2.6
SINCE JUL 1 19.4 13.8 5.6 2.6
SNOW DEPTH 2
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 33 31 2 26
MONTH TO DATE 327 322 5 273
SINCE DEC 1 2426 2231 195 1795
SINCE JUL 1 3408 3208 200 2598
COOLING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE DEC 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JAN 1 0 0 0 0
..................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SW (210)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 15 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (200)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 3.7
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
SNOW
LIGHT SNOW
FOG
FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 800 AM
LOWEST 69 100 AM
AVERAGE 85
..........................................................
THE WASHINGTON DULLES CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 44 67 1999
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 23 -7 1979
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
FEBRUARY 10 2003......SUNRISE 707 AM EST SUNSET 541 PM EST
FEBRUARY 11 2003......SUNRISE 706 AM EST SUNSET 542 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
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wx247
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Well I bit the dust on that one!
Garrett
Garrett
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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