Severe Thunderstorms/Hail/Tornado Possibility Down South

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

As this large system deepens and develops from this upper level Low, it will produce some lines of showers and heavier thunderstorms across TX, AR, LA and points eastward with its progression. Be advised, we may see our first tornado watch/warning of the year with this storm heading east and also the warmer air slamming already colder areas is destined to make some bad conditions exsist....possibly large hail as well. Sty Tuned later today as well. Some areas in central and eastern TX show a line where the front is carving through....keep your eyes and ears alert in areas affected from now until this evening.

[ColdFront77]

Yes, Jeff Morrow mentioned yesterday that we may see our first Severe Weather Watches tomorrow (meaning today).

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

South TX has a TStorm Watch out as we speak.

[ColdFront77]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

I also see Mike Seidel in Baltimore as well waiting for the snow....should be interesting and since they have him there and Kocin/Forbes monitoring all of this...should get tricky!

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
519 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM CST...
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DIMMIT COUNTY HAS JUST
EXPIRED...

AT 516 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FRIO COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT SEVERE AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT COULD CONTAIN
SOME SMALL HAIL.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
540 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003


.CURRENT...RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF CROCKETT COUNTY. THIS AREA DID NOT HAVE MENTION IN
THE ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO CROCKETT
AND SCHLEICHER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELPING OVER
MASON COUNTY...HOWEVER FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.

27/BRAZZELL

COLD FRONT WAS NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 19Z...WITH SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND LOW WERE SCOURING OUT
SOME OF THE MOISTURE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S. WITH HIGH
CLOUDS WERE MOVING OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES STILL HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID 70S.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...AND THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO COME IN...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THERE. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THIS REGION. SOME PVA
ALSO MOVES THROUGH WITH UPPER TROUGH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN HEARTLAND TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION SATURDAY MORNING. AVN HAS A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THAN THE ETA.
GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY COOLER. NOT REALLY CERTAIN WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT AT THIS TIME...THEY BOTH SEEMED TO INITALIZE OKAY. WILL DO A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NEW AVN
GUIDANCE INDICATING READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. WITH RAISE
THEM JUST A BIT TOWARD NGM AND ETA GUIDANCE...BUT WILL STILL FREEZE.
PEOPLE WHO HAVE SET POTTED PLANTS OUT WILL NEED TO TAKE THEM IN
SATURDAY NIGHT.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. INCLUDED CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

[StormCrazyIowan]

YES! Thunderstorm talk, whoo hoo!!! Not for here though, the snow has just begun! (Well, it was snowing earlier, but quit for bout an hour)

[wx247]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
708 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 705 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EDGERTON KS...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAWRENCE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GARDNER BY 720 PM CST.
SPRING HILL BY 725 PM CST.
OLATHE BY 730 PM CST.
LENEXA BY 740 PM CST.
OVERLAND PARK...STANLEY BY 745 PM CST.
LEAWOOD BY 750 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF COUNTRYSIDE AND FAIRWAY ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Woooooooooo Hail.....my favorite!

[wx247]

Rob, where do you do most of your storm chasing? You ever up my way?

Garrett

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

It depends on the 'season'. I wished I'd lived in the middle of it all...I'd never be on here! For the most part...North and east TX....central as well north to the KS border, east to SW MO....pretty close to you later in the months of say June/July...across the southern states for May like LA/AR/MS/AL/TN and then northward into IA/IL/IN/OH say later in the season...Jul-Aug.....it is tough to find a range of areas, but you can generalize where you can set up shop with models/trends and watching the Jetstream behavior and patterns. I'm willing to bet that this spring will be very active this year since we had a drought the last 2 months alone. I will be watching for sure even from afar!

[StormCrazyIowan]

Man, I had a nice Orange Eclipse, and I got SERIOUS hail damage on it and got rid of it for a convertible! LOL But now I have a Paseo. Gonna come pick me up when you come through Iowa? 8)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

lol Jacki...sure. I dont know if you've seen my car or not though.....check out the pics on my profile for my 'homepage'....I have shots of snows here recently and also me and the car of course on webshots. I have some hail dents in that car too! Its just over 8 years old and has 229,000 on the odometer....from being bought new...lol

[StormCrazyIowan]

OMG< I think I am in love with your car!!!!! hehehehe, I want to take that thing on a side road and see what it can do! Cars, my other obsession..... Anywho, your snow pics are really cool! I wish I could take some like that, but we havent had any snow! I am getting imaptient, we only have 1/2 an inch on the ground as of yet! Wheres it hidin?? hehe....

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

lmao....yeah that car has gotten me in more trouble with being hit by lightning and fines for everything under the sun! I told ya...you want snow...come on up! Some of those pics I didnt put on there had my car totally buried up to the mirrors at one point here. At one point we had 3 feet on the ground....now its still deep and drifted all over too...real mess! I want a few 60 degree days please!!!!

[StormCrazyIowan]

LMAO, I might have to unbury after tonight, we'll see. I have never been up there, how is it?

[southerngale]

Rob

I looked at some of those snow pictures....wow! And all I asked for was enough to make a snowball, maybe a small snowman.

Anyway, if I had your snow I would be outside playing in it all the time!

[StormCrazyIowan]

Can we say Snow Angels!!

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

lol southern....the snow has been here so long its all hard as a rock...all the new accumulations just blows all over since its so cold and stays cold up on the hills here....very crusty! I've been driving the car....handles great in the snow, but I have to jump it and carry a spare battery pack since I have a dry cell under the hood....they dont keep a charge when its like 10 in the day and -10 at night!