Positive NAO and Negative NAO outlook, and winter of 03/04..

[MidwestWeather]

This is what i really think might happen.

I know there's other factors than NAO, but here's what i think if a......

Negative NAO develops

I think the Eastern U.S. will have a Cold, and snowy winter, and most of the south a cool and somewhat wet winter. I also think the Western U.S. will have above to way above normal temperature's along with 30 to 50 percent below normal precipatation. Alaska will be warm south and cold north, and overall wet. Thats only what it looks like to me if we have a strong negative nao for most of the winter transiting to an el nino like conditions late winter or early spring.

or if a
Positive NAO develops
This can be a upset for snowlover in the Eastern U.S.(Northern area's) if we have a strong positive NAO for most of winter. This will mean the pattern will be more zonal and pacific air will be coming into most of the country and warming things up, and it will be drier than normal for the most part as well. Still can get storms in Positive NAO, but less likely in my opion. It all depends on how strong the positive NAO is.

Overall it will be a neutral winter transiting to en el nino conditions late winter or early spring. Cases such as that USUALLY result in cold and really stormy pattern for eastern U.S. including midwest and great lakes, and warm and dry in Western U.S.

Overall i hope we have a fairly strong negative nao most part of this winter,because i am a snowlover in Chicago il. Also is it true we been in a neg NAO and pos PNA for the past 11 monthes???

Last year winter of 2002 and 2003 Chicago had only one big snowstorm of about 5 inches, even that was a bust because they were predicting about as much as 10 to 12 inches of snow. Others were basically just clippers. Not that u all care but just saying how boring my winter was last year. Not only chicago got the effects of inadequete(however u spell it) snow. Most places in Midwest, and upper great lakes had it worse. They barely saw snow at all last winter. Holfoly and prolly we wont see something like that this winter like we all did last winter in Midwest and upper Great lakes.

Also some of the models continue to show a Artic Outbreak breaking out in the U.S. within next 2 weeks, but to far to tell if it is really coming for sure. (a sign maybe of whats winter gonna be like??? who knows).

Also this winter doesent LOOK like it will be a upset for the midwest/great lakes area like it was last winter (snowlovers). Infact midwest/great lakes usually get there biggest snows in neutral winter transiting to el nino conditions late winter or early spring that looks like it sure might do. The northeast u sure will get plenty of snow in my opion, but it will be indeed LESS snow than last year. Great lakes will prolly be extremely cold if neg NAO develops.

Overall i have a gut feeling will see a Neg NAO for most part of the winter, pretty stormy across eastern U.S. for most part of winter. Now what do u all think about this upcoming winter of 2003 and 2004. Now i know its still to early to predict such a winter outlook for 2003 and 2004 this far out, but its something to look forwood to.