NOAA 10 Day Outlook Nov 21 through Fri Nov 28

[CaptinCrunch]

3-5 DAYS (Fri Nov 21 through Sun Nov 23, 2003)

A low pressure center developing off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring fairly high onshore winds to much of the Northeast coast, from New Jersey to New England, on Friday Nov 21 and Saturday Nov 22, before moving farther offshore. High surf will be generated by these winds, and some coastal flooding or beach erosion is possible. This storm is the offspring of the vigorous system presently moving through the center of the country, which has produced severe weather, heavy rain, and some flooding. The next major storm is forecast to be organizing over the West as the East Coast deals with the first storm. By Friday Nov 21 a deep upper level trough is forecast to be digging into the Intermountain West, and strong surface low pressure will begin developing east of the Rockies. While the details are still somewhat uncertain, this storm system is expected to be very strong and, like the one preceding it, produce a wide swath of stormy weather across the center of the nation. High winds are expected across much of the Rockies, beginning with Montana on Friday Nov 21 and woking southward to the southern Rockies by Sunday Nov 23. The upslope component of these winds may help prooduce heavy snow, especially in orographically favored locations. However, initially the storm is expected to have somewhat limited moisture to work. As the storm moves out into the Plains warm, moist Gulf air is expected to be brought north ahead of it, providing moisture for locally heavy precipitation. In places where the air is cold enough, like the wrap-around region northwest of the surface low, the precipitation will be in the form of snow, while heavy rain will occur east and south of the low pressure center. The moisture should have some benefits across areas that are presently experiencing levels of drought, but from central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma eastward to the lower and middle Mississippi Valley the precipitation is likely to be accompanied by some severe weather in the form of severe thunderstorms and associated high winds, hail, and even tornadoes during this period. High winds from the synoptic scale pressure field will be coupled with dry fuels to create an enhanced wildfire hazard over much of New Mexico and west Texaes on November 21-22. Over other areas of the Plains and Midwest these winds may cause drifting snow and cold wind chill temperatures, and may reach speeds capable of additional damage even outside of thunderstorms. Storms over Alaska will bring high winds and precipitation to many parts of that state. Dry weather should prevail in southern California, reducing the threat of mud slides in the fire-scarred areas.


6-10 DAYS (Mon Nov 24 through Fri Nov 28, 2003)

The strong storm which is forecast to develop during days 3 through 5 is expected to continue moving eastward during Monday Nov 24 and Tuesday Nov 25. By Wednesday Nov 26 this storm is expected to begin weakening over southern Canada. Before it weakens significantly it is expected to continue to bring a variety of stormy, windy weather to the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Southeastern U.S. Some synoptic scale snow may be enhanced by lake effect snow to produce locally heavy snowfall in some places in the Great Lakes region, while severe weather is a possibility farther south. Stormy conditions are expected to continue in Alaska with another in the parade of storms to bring high winds to large parts of the state from Monday Nov 24 through at least Tuesday Nov 25. Some additional drought relief is indicated by the extended model runs for parts of the west, specifically the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

[JCT777]

Thanks for posting this, Chris.

[weatherlover427]

Oh boy, here we go again. Seems like this has been an active month, from the 18 inches of hail in LA to the 19 tornadoes in the Houston area...

[stu]

Next Sunday 23rd WILL see severe weather again in the southern plains - if the models dont do a complete turn around beforehand

[CaptinCrunch]

It looks like we may see our first freeze of the winter monday night here in the D/FW area. Our average first freeze is around Nov 21. Our highs for monday are only in the low to middle 40's.

Can't wait!!!!