SPC puts SE TX and LA in Slight Risk Area. Should not be anything like the previous event.......we hope.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST WED NOV 26 2003
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LAST NIGHT WE HAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT TEMPS ARE ABOUT 30 DEGREES WARMER WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST (POSSIBLY A WARM FRONT). DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TODAY/TNGT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND SOMEWHAT WETTER
OVER TIME...AND FOLLOWED ETA RUN WHICH GOES ALONG WITH TREND. MODELS
SHOW 35-40 KNOT LLJ RESULTING IN A TREMENDOUS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH PWS REACHING 1.6-1.7 INCHES ACROSS CWA THIS AFTN. AS FIRST
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO INITIATE ACROSS SE
TX AROUND 21Z. TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EARLY EVENING AS
SECOND DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR THE BAJA APPROACHES. WILL GO SCATTERED
POPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ERN HALF OF CWA.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MORE COMPLICATED. SHEAR PROFILE QUITE
FAVORABLE WITH HELICITIES INCREASING TO 180-230 M2/S2 AND
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM SFC TO 3000 FT. HOWEVER...THINK
THE ETA IS OVERDOING THE FCST INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...00Z LCH/CRP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE. IF SFC TEMPS CAN MAKE
IT TO THE 75-78 DEGREE RANGE...THINK THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK
CAP. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL
GENERATE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA. WILL MENTION SEVERE ALL ZONES THIS AFTN/EVENING BUT THINK BEST
THREAT WILL BE OVER THE ERN/SRN ZONES. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR
SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A SECONDARY
THREAT. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL ERN HALF GIVEN THE HIGH PWS
AND THIS BEING SUCH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.
Houston-Galveston Severe Weather Threat Today
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Houston-Galveston Severe Weather Threat Today
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Suzi Q
SE Texas severe weather
Heavens, we don't need another round like last week. Even as much as I love severe weather, I am not up to a repeat performance, not to mention the folks that are still trying to recover. Let's keep our fingers crossed that we stay in the clear this time. 
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-
GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
ACUS11 KWNS 261917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261916
TXZ000-262045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 261916Z - 262045Z
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY
BE REQUIRED.
18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MARINE/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR VCT NEWD TO S OF UTS AND THEN SEWD OFF THE COAST /W OF
BPT/. A N-S CONFLUENCE LINE WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM E OF PSX NWD INTO
E-CNTRL TX W OF TYR. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A SLIGHTLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS S OF WARM FRONT AND ALONG/E OF
CONFLUENCE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH 18Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP...MODIFYING BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WITH THOSE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE HOU VICINITY...REDUCES THE CIN
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER...CAP EROSION WILL LIKELY BE EXPEDITED THIS AFTERNOON
AS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
BIG BEND REGION OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE ELEMENTS OBSERVED
BETWEEN HOU AND CLL SHOULD TEND TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AS THE CAP
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO
ATTEMPT TO BUILD INLAND FROM THE GULF. IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED ON THE LEDBETTER
PROFILER WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
/I.E. MLLCL HEIGHTS AOB 800M/ AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2.
A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IF IT BECOMES
APPARENT THAT DEVELOPING CONVECTION HAS OVERCOME THE CAP.
..MEAD.. 11/26/2003
...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
29189641 30239632 30919612 31779573 32089486 31869404
30329379 28829542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261916
TXZ000-262045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 261916Z - 262045Z
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY
BE REQUIRED.
18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED MARINE/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR VCT NEWD TO S OF UTS AND THEN SEWD OFF THE COAST /W OF
BPT/. A N-S CONFLUENCE LINE WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM E OF PSX NWD INTO
E-CNTRL TX W OF TYR. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A SLIGHTLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS S OF WARM FRONT AND ALONG/E OF
CONFLUENCE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH 18Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP...MODIFYING BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WITH THOSE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE HOU VICINITY...REDUCES THE CIN
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER...CAP EROSION WILL LIKELY BE EXPEDITED THIS AFTERNOON
AS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
BIG BEND REGION OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE ELEMENTS OBSERVED
BETWEEN HOU AND CLL SHOULD TEND TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AS THE CAP
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO
ATTEMPT TO BUILD INLAND FROM THE GULF. IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED ON THE LEDBETTER
PROFILER WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
/I.E. MLLCL HEIGHTS AOB 800M/ AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2.
A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IF IT BECOMES
APPARENT THAT DEVELOPING CONVECTION HAS OVERCOME THE CAP.
..MEAD.. 11/26/2003
...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
29189641 30239632 30919612 31779573 32089486 31869404
30329379 28829542
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