Really cold weather

#1 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Dec 15, 2003 10:24 am

Any really cold air heading to the South between now and Christmas???
Anyone have have any info???

#2 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 15, 2003 10:41 am

No polar fronts are expected before x-mas, but there might be one between 1st-5th of January.

#3 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Dec 15, 2003 11:03 am

I'll take it

Thanks

Amanzi · #4 Postby **Amanzi** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 10:23 am

I have been wondering the very same thing Bon.. When oh when is a really cold airmass coming my way!

weatherlover427 · #5 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 2:49 pm

They say lows will hit the mid 30s in central FL Thursday morning.

PTrackerLA · #6 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 4:26 pm

Last year we got down to near 20/upper teens with an arctic outbreak at the end of january. I hope to see something like this again this year with wintry precip of course.

#7 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 4:42 pm

Our early Christmas day forecast looks like highs in the mid 40's and lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's

NO SNOW but at least it wont be 70 degrees!!

PTrackerLA · #8 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 12:42 pm

40's/20's would be perfect for me on Christmas. However from what I've seen I think it will be more like highs in the 60's, lows in the 40's

Amanzi · #9 Postby **Amanzi** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 12:49 pm

Looks like my own question was answered by NWS... Low of 28 for me tonight.. YAY break out the firewood

Sean in New Orleans · #10 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 2:32 am

Artic air is looking likely in the metro New Orleans area close to the New Year. What does this mean? It means lows near 10 to 17 in the Northern suburbs and 19 to 25 on the Southshore including the inner city. These temps could vary higher or lower by 5 degrees before all is said and done and it's too soon to predict any frozen precipitation for the metro New Orleans area. Stay tuned....

PTrackerLA · #11 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 12:18 pm

Sean where are you getting this information from? I sure hope you're right though.

Sean in New Orleans · #12 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 4:58 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Sean where are you getting this information from? I sure hope you're right though.

I'm watching a huge polar ridge develop over the Pacific all the way over the pole to Siberia (as are other local meteorologists and weather enthusiasts in the New Orleans area). Watch it develop---this ridge provides for the coldest weather scenarios possible for South Louisiana that exist. Stay tuned---it's still a ways away and we have time to watch. We are talking bitter cold, though. Keep watching...

#13 Postby **RNS** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:14 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Sean where are you getting this information from? I sure hope you're right though.

I'm watching a huge polar ridge develop over the Pacific all the way over the pole to Siberia (as are other local meteorologists and weather enthusiasts in the New Orleans area). Watch it develop---this ridge provides for the coldest weather scenarios possible for South Louisiana that exist. Stay tuned---it's still a ways away and we have time to watch. We are talking bitter cold, though. Keep watching...

Its unclear at least IMO where the core of the cold air with this arctic shot is going to end up...however its more likely to be the midwest at least initially.

Whats going to happen is a strong ridge will develop just off the west coast of north america stretching northward into alaska...however the strong pacific jet will undercut the ridge and force a block to develop along the arctic coast of AK around the new year. this would encourage the PV to become re-established in eastern canada the first week of JAN leading to a deep central/eastern US trough. The core of the cold will be much more expansive (further west) than it has been at least early on this winter (centered mainly in the EUS this month)...then shifts east from the plains into the eastern part of the country later on (toward the first weekend of JAN).

Sean in New Orleans · #14 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Dec 20, 2003 2:06 am

I agree, RNS. The expansiveness of the artic air provides for frigid weather into New Orleans and even further Southward. When we have these artic blasts in New Orleans, the northern winds over the Gulf of Mexico cause snow to develop, sometimes, over the warmer Gulf of Mexico waters. New Orleans will be clear and frigid, during these times, and offshore oil rigs will have light accumulations of snow. I always find that scenario quite interesting. Nevertheless, we do need to watch this closely. Last time this scenario developed properly during the 1980's, the temperature at New Orleans International Airport reached 14 degrees and at 3:00 PM the temperature was 19 degrees at the airport with a wind chill of -20. The Northern suburbs of New Orleans sunk to 3 to 8 degrees above zero. For those who wish for frozen precip. in the Deep South, the chances are better for frigid temps than snow, IMO. The scenarios for frozen precipitation are a little harder to come by in New Orleans, although, in 1989, we had a similar situation, where we had the city blanketed in snow for 2 days. Just watch the ridge for those in the metro New Orleans area and the picture will be much clearer after Christmas and beyond.

PTrackerLA · #15 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Dec 22, 2003 12:32 pm

Sean you've got me excited about the frigid air. I've never heard of the snows over the gulf of mexico but I'm sure it can happen and that's pretty amazing. I know sometimes the oil rigs experience freezing ocean spray from the rough seas and cold temps. I remember one year in the 80's they cancelled Mardi Gras in Lafayette because of the bitterly cold temps... I believe the daytime temp was in the low 20's with an awful wind chill. It's been a while since we've seen temps like that down here but I can't wait and hope we see them again.

Sean in New Orleans · #16 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:44 am

It appears that the frigid weather has been delayed just a little. It's beginning to make it's move in northern Canada. It does appear it will make a dive for the Gulf Coast and frigid air will arrive, indeed, in the Deep South. The timing does reflect frigid conditions more favorable to the second week of January. Stay tuned for those that enjoy frigid air and possibly some snow flakes......

Suzi Q · #17 Postby **Suzi Q** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 8:09 am

I can live with the delay as long as it actually gets here. Actually it's a good thing if it takes awhile, I gotta take down all those blasted Christmas decorations outside!

PTrackerLA · #18 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 3:31 pm

Well doesn't look like we'll have any arctic air anytime soon. This might just be the winter that wasn't for the south.

Sean in New Orleans · #19 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 2:25 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Well doesn't look like we'll have any arctic air anytime soon. This might just be the winter that wasn't for the south.

Some meteorologists are afraid to forecast against some of the models, but we have a couple of meteorologists here in New Orleans who aren't afraid to recognize that cooler air is imminent and that brutally cold air could come after the 10th of January. One local meteorologist (on local TV) is forecasting a high of 45 here in New Orleans for Tuesday---I respect him. He's not afraid to forecast the truth. The NWS will most likely be the last to jump on the chilly bandwagon. Trust--the cooler air is making its' move and we could keep getting colder and colder with brief warm-ups in between for the next two to three weeks....

#20 Postby **bfez1** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 7:33 am

Sean,
Which forecaster are you talking about? Bob Breck?

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