SE Texas Watch Out

[Suzi Q]

LATEST GFS RUN HAS SLOWED THINGS DOWN BUT IS STILL JUST A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE (AT LEAST LOCALLY PREFERRED) ETA/ECMWF/ECMWF/ CANADIAN MODELS. THINK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NE TX TO CNTRL TX WILL EVENTUALLY OUTRUN ITS MAIN PUSH TO THE WEST. EXPECTING TO SEE THIS LINE AND WINDSHIFT INTO THE CLL AREA TOWARD NOONTIME BEFORE REALLY SLOWING DOWN. THEN THE FUN BEGINS. FCST PW'S OF 1.3" INLAND & 1.5" COAST POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
EXIST FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON &
TONIGHT: SURFACE BOUNDARY PRESENT...AREA SITUATED IN RR OF
JET...PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND MODERATE LOW/MID LVL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SETTING UP TRAINING RAINFALL...AND 12+ HOURS OF SIGNIFICANT OMEGA OVER THE SE 1/2 OF CWA. WAS CONCERNED ENOUGH OF A FF POTENTIAL TO DO A DECISION TREE USING BOTH ETA/GFS. BOTH INDICATED LOCALIZED 6.5" WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAIN THING HOLDING ME BACK FROM PULLING THE TRIGGER ON AN FFA IS THAT MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING MOISTURE LEVELS WHEN COMPARING THEM
TO CURRENT GOES SOUNDER DATA. WILL NEED TO EXTEND HIGHER POPS FURTHER INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER MOVEMENT. THINK WE'LL SEE THE FRONT ALONG A LIVINGSTON-HOUSTON-EDNA LINE BY 6 PM AND OFF THE SE COAST BY 10 PM. GRADUAL CLEARING STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.
FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

Then the NWS issues this as of 5:09 this morning:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AUSTONIO TO PLANTERSVILLE TO BRENHAM.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR TRAINING PRECIPITATION.

THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL BEFORE NOON...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LAST LATE INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING HEAVY RAINS OCCUR.

THE FRONT TO BE IN THE COLLEGE STATION AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
IT SHOULD BE ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LIVINGSTON TO HOUSTON TO EDNA AROUND 7 PM...AND OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER IT PASSES. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

All of us SETX folk need to pay attention. With all the leaves and such in the streets, you KNOW those drains are gonna get clogged.
Just thought I'd give ya'll a heads up!

Marva

[Guest]

Rains seem to be holding off for the Houston area - its 10:23 and nothing here yet....Rain seems to be off to the west of us....

I don't see 6 inches unless this system stalls. A good day for me to stay indoors and do some baking...

[KatDaddy]

We are hoping the heavier rains remain to the W and hold for until after 5PM. Looking the latest radars this is a good bet.

Hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas.

[Stormsfury]

These are the latest GFS and ETA progs ... of course, if the training of thunderstorms does occur, localized higher amounts are quite possible ...

48 hour QPF's - GFS


48 hour QPF's - ETA