Central Florida threat gone..?

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Josephine96

Central Florida threat gone..?

#1 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Jan 26, 2004 8:14 pm

Is the threat for severe weather in Central Florida gone..? I just peaked at the Melbourne NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook graphics and they are no longer pin pointing to severe weather..

I can't believe I'm saying this. But I am beginning to get tired of getting hyped up for severe weather, and then some miracle happens to have it dissipate. {if this is again the case}

I know how bad severe weather is. I am a 1998 tornado survivor. But.. I also am beginning to get a little irritated with being told to "expect severe weather" and nothing happens.

Please excuse my rant if it is ludicrous lol :wink:

Someone please just answer my question about our current severe weather alleged "threat".

I would have put this in the severe weather thread.. But I had something there and it hasn't been answered all day lol
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Jan 26, 2004 8:50 pm

I hate to bump this to the top lol.. But I really would like to know if anyone has an opinion..

{please forgive me for the bump}
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ColdFront77

#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jan 26, 2004 8:53 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
615 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270500-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
615 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR NORTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THAT AREA. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AGAIN LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO RE-DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH WILL FUNNEL A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...BRINGING FREEZING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN CASE
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. SPOTTERS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE
REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY DELAYED REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

CARROLL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
812 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
271100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
812 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT:
A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THOUGH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING IS SMALL...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE ATTRACTIONS AREA TO THE CAPE.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS READINGS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEGREES.

LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FROST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO OCCUR.
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Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Jan 26, 2004 8:57 pm

Thank you Tom.. so I guess unless 40 mph winds are considered "severe". I guess the answer is yes.. we have dodged the bullet yet again lol
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ColdFront77

#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jan 26, 2004 9:01 pm

You're welcome, John.

A severe thunderstorm by definition is wind gusts in excess of 55 mph, (really 57.5 mph) or 50 knots, large hail and/or tornadic thunderstorms.

The upper level wind shear was said to be condusive for isolated tornadic thunderstorms tonight into the overnight hours; thus there is still a chance of some interesting weather even if it is wind gusts 25 to 40 mph.
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Jan 26, 2004 9:04 pm

Oh Ok Tom. Thank you.. So even though winds may not be "severe". It could still be interesting around here because of the upper level winds..?
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ColdFront77

#7 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jan 26, 2004 9:06 pm

Basically. My point is having thunderstorms of any intensity in January (during the dry season) is worth having, so wind gusts below severe weather criteria... that is strong thunderstorms are better than weak or no thunderstorms at all.
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