Warm front moving northward through Florida!

[ColdFront77]

Courtesy of the National Weather Service, Melbourne, Florida website:

[weatherlover427]

Where did the front start at, Tom? :-?

[ColdFront77]

The warm front was southwest and south of the state during the day on Saturday.

As of 10:22 pm EST, The Weather Channel has the front approaching extreme southern Florida. Unisys Weather has it just north of Miami at 11:00 pm EST.

[weatherlover427]

Oh OK, thanks.

[ColdFront77]

You're welcome, Josh. It appears as though it would have to move further up than it looks and expected because of the location of the surface low. The surface low is located west of southwestern Florida.

Winds are expected to shift to the east, not the southeast, south and/or southwest. Temperatures have warmed a few degrees along Florida east coast in the last few hours.

[FLguy]

yes, and we can also see a tounge of 50F or greater dewpoints nosing up the east coast of the pinnensula.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/ttd.html

however, the highest dewpoints of 65F + remain confined to the keys and extreme southeast portions of the state near MIA.

mixed layer CAPE remains rather weak acros sthe region, generally less than 250 J/kg, although an area of 250-500 J/kg CAPE values exist around the miami area and across the keys.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/mlcp.html

SFC-1 KM / SFC-3 KM Storm-relative Helicity values (LLVL shear profiles) are VERY impressive across the region. and given convective initiation with SRH values of up to 600 m^2/s^2 in spots would suggest that thunderstorms are allowed to readily rotate.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/srh3.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/srh1.html

this is supported by 1KM vertical shear values of greater than 15 KT across most of the pinnensula.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/shr1.html

3-KM EHI values are impressive in extreme SE portions of the state where ML CAPE values have elevated slightly in response to the development of the moist tounge along the atlantic side and slightly warmer temps.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/ehi3.html

overall however --- instability across the state is lacking, so even in spite of very favorable wind profiles (shear) for tornadic development, weak CAPE should preclude the potential for a large scale severe situation overnight.

the weak convective instability and strong shear is clearly seen in an comparison of BRN shear, boundary layer-6 KM shear and surface CAPE.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/shr6.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/brns.html

notice that strong shear is present, but convective instability is weak.

the overall severe threat is limited tonight, but NOT gone. the greatest threat for severe will be south of a line from west palm beach to cape coral where instability is the greatest. otherwise, further north some elevated or low topped convection is possible, but probably nothing exceeding severe limits.

[FLguy]

furthermore, since we are dealing with the potential for elevated convective development, MU (most unstable) CAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg off the coast --- east of MIA, which could help to enhance severe potential across the region.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/mucp.html

however, lapse rates are mostly moist adiabatic across SFL, (between 5.00 and 6.00 C/km) would imply relative stability. although strong UVM could compensate.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/lllr.html

[ColdFront77]

The surface low pressure located to the west of southwestern Florida must not be moving northeastward, if it does then the warm front would be pushed more northward and would bring the thunderstorm parameters with them. The temperature has risen 2 to 4 degrees here in the last twenty minutes to three and half hours... from 48 to 50 to 52 degrees.

During Saturday evening the low did move more easterly than northeasterly; but isn't necessarily a trend.

[FLguy]

The surface low pressure located to the west of southwestern Florida must not be moving northeastward, if it does then the warm front would be pushed more northward and would bring the thunderstorm parameters with them. The temperature has risen 2 to 4 degrees here in the last twenty minutes to three and half hours... from 48 to 50 to 52 degrees.

During Saturday evening the low did move more easterly than northeasterly; but isn't necessarily a trend.

its 58F here just off the beach on A1A. strong moisture advection should continue to boost dewpoints overnight as the warm front continues NWD. thus as surface heating takes place tomorrow, Destabilization will occur and the severe threat will increase. most likely severe mode should be DMG winds and isolated tornadoes given phenominal shear.

best severe threat tomorrow should be along and southeast of a line from cedar city to St. Augustine

[ColdFront77]

It makes sense to me FLguy.

South and east of a Cedar Key to Saint Augustine line puts all of central (and of course southern) Florida in the threat area. However, again, (like 24 to 30 hours ago) it doesn't seem like any of the three NWS offices (Jacksonville, Melbourne and Ruskin) are going with a severe threat later today.

The National Weather Service in Ruskin expects the surface low to move slowly northeastward, which as I said above would mean the warm front will have to move up the peninsula as mentioned.

They are also saying that the sun should come out by tomorrow afternoon.

[FLguy]

It makes sense to me FLguy.

South and east of a Cedar Key to Saint Augustine line puts all of central (and of course southern) Florida in the threat area. However, again, (like 24 to 30 hours ago) it doesn't seem like any of the three NWS offices (Jacksonville, Melbourne and Ruskin) are going with a severe threat later today.

The National Weather Service in Ruskin expects the surface low to move slowly northeastward, which as I said above would mean the warm front will have to move up the peninsula as mentioned.

They are also saying that the sun should come out by tomorrow afternoon.

the breaking up of the strato deck is important since as i said it would allow for surface heating to occur and destabilization of the airmass to take place.

[ColdFront77]

It would be nice... the official forecasts are calling for clearing (to continue) as the warm front moves northward through the state.

However, surface maps are showing the low moving more easterly, opposed to northeasterly; thus the frontal bounary is moving "sideways" rather than northward. Perhaps this isn't a trend and something may pop up. Temperatures across central Florida have jumped up in the last few hours.


Here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Melbourne NWS... sort of being contradictory.....

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
531 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
012100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
531 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE COMMON OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER SOAKED GROUND MAY ACCUMULATE
AND CREATE NUISANCE FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW SPOTS.

OVER THE MARINE AREA THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL CREATE A HAZARD FOR SMALL
BOATS. ADDITIONALLY SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE MARINE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WITH THE RAIN SOAKED GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW SPOTS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION
AND REDUCE SPEED IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR NORTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

$$

PENDERGRAST

[tropicana]

Heavy flooding forces people out of their homes, causes damage in Broward

By John Holland
Sun-Sentinel
Posted February 1 2004, 4:26 PM EST

FORT LAUDERDALE -- What a mess. Record rainfall Sunday morning left cars floating upside down in Pompano Beach, turned lives inside out in a poor Fort Lauderdale neighborhood and sent Broward County residents trudging through some of the worst winter flooding in years.

By the time the sun finally broke through, more than four inches of rain had pelted local homes, streets, softball fields and gardens. The bulk of the storm hit Sunday morning, dropping about three inches in a six-hour span, flooding apartments, houses and parking garages.


Damage was widespread. Fort Lauderdale firefighters helped evacuate about 50 people from their homes on the 700 block of Northwest 4th Avenue at 4 a.m., as heavy rains seeped into their bedrooms and living rooms. The water mixed with overflowing septic tanks, leaving a stench that had residents worried for themselves and their children.

Several cars broke down in the water, which reached waist-high in spots and subsided little by mid-afternoon.

"I've got raw sewage going into my living room; that's what's floating in the road right now,'' said Arrie McDonald, who has lived in his apartment since 2000. "This isn't healthy, and I know there are little babies in this (complex) who are sick right now. It floods all the time, but this is the second really bad one since I've been here.''

Similar problems plagued much of Broward County.

Dozens of people were evacuated from the Savoy East condominium complex near the beach at Southeast 10th Street in Pompano Beach after the unit's bottom-floor parking garage flooded, spilling gas and oil from the cars.

Fearing a possible explosion, firefighters shutoff electricity to the building and helped residents leave around 8:40 a.m., Fire Lt. Joe Campbell said. At 3 p.m., four feet of water remained in the garage as firefighters waited for a private hazardous material contractor to begin pumping the water into special containers.

Campbell estimated that it would be at least 48-hours before residents were allowed back in the building.

"It was like a waterfall right down this driveway and into the garage,'' Campbell said. "We got a call that there was a gas smell, which isn't unusual. But this has grown a life of its own and turned into a lot more.''

The rain also brought extensive flooding to the Hollywood Hills and Hollywood Lakes sections, which are usually hard hit during heavy storms. At the Stephen Foster Elementary School off Davie Boulevard, a 10-foot sinkhole had public works employees scrambling to stop the damage.

According to the National Weather Service in Miami, Saturday's rainfall of 1.16 inches set a record for the most rain on Jan. 31, smashing the previous record of 0.37 inches, set in 1994. Another three inches followed after midnight.

But the rainfall didn't beat the record for most rain in a 24-hour-period in the month of January, which was set on Jan. 14, 1997 with 5.82 inches.
-justin-

[ColdFront77]

The frontal boundary has "grown," if you will it now traverses southern Florida, westward and than northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico the Louisiana/Texas coastal border into central Texas.

With a frontal boundary over the region (Florida)... with a good amount of moisture and instability over the peninsula showers and thunderstorms should occur, the next real risk as of now is the end of this week, as NWS Melbourne mentions and I posted above.