Severe wx and flooding evening discussion

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. At 6 PM CST, a line of showers and thunderstorms have developed over western Texas and the Texas panhandle from Sudan to Denver City and Tulia as a shortwave disturbance approaches from the southwest. This line of showers and thunderstorms was moving towards the east at nearly 20 mph. The strongest portions of this line of thunderstorms could be accompanied by some occasional lightning, dim sized hail, torrential rains, and wind gusts up to 45 mph. Levelland, Brownfield, and Silverton will likely be affected by this line of storms by 7 PM CST. The Plainview and Lubbock areas may also want to keep and eye on this line of thunderstorms. While isolated severe weather is anticipated, I don't expect widespread severe weather with this system across westen Texas as the sun is setting. However with increasing dynamics, thunderstorms should maintain intensity for the next several hours across western Texas.

Further east, severe weather threat is not expected to be very widespread across southeast Texas into southwestern Louisiana tonight. However with the presence of an approaching shortwave and a southerly low level jet over the western Gulf Of Mexico and a frontal boundary offshore, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage later tonight across southeastern Texas. Widespread severe is not anticipated as instability will be marginal. However strong deep layer shear could be efficient enough to produce some severe hail north of the offshore boundary, which is anticipated to approach the Texas/Louisiana coast by sunrise on Monday. The severe weather threat will actually increase Monday into Tuesday as shortwave disturbances will interact with a very warm and humid gulf airmass across central and southeast Texas and into Louisiana as well. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible with this.

Meanwhile further west, a dangerous flood and mudslide threat continues tonight in southern California. Areas east of San Diego has received up to 1.1 inches of rain per hour earlier this afternoon. It only will take 1/2 inch of rain per hour to cause dangerous flooding and mudslides in the burned areas of San Diego County and into San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. All three counties are under flash flood warnings until 5 PM PST and that could be extended through later tonight as more showers and very heavy thunderstorms with blinding rains continues over the burned areas. 3-6" rain totals are possible in the burned areas before this storm is all said and done with. Do not drive through flooded roads tonight. Turn around and don't drown. Don't take any chances as water weighs 60 pounds a cubic foot. That combined with the swift current is not something you want to get involved in. This is a serious situation and travel is not reccommended through tonight across southern California as flooding at night is even more dangerous because you cannot see.

Los Angeles at last check has received 1.63" of rain and more is falling right now. Over 2 feet of snow has accumulated above 6000 feet in the mountains outside Los Angeles and up to 3 feet of snow is expected in southern California mountainous locations above 6000 feet by Monday morning. 2-3 inches of total rain can be expected in San Diego and Los Angeles with 3-6" totals in the burned areas east of those cities. A very dangerous situation and travel is not advisable tonight in southern California.

More updates will be given on this storm throughout the night.

Jim