SEVERE WX update 2-24-04

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon folks. Two areas of severe wx threats today. Area #1 is over south central Texas with lines of severe thunderstorms. Corpus Christi recently experienced a severe thunderstorm with damaging wind gusts. At 11:53 am central standard time, hail to 1 inch in diameter pelted Corpus Christi in Nueces County. There was also wind damage in Nueces County, TX at around 11:30 am cst this morning. A portion of a roof at San Pedro School did collapse due to straightline winds this morning. Some dangerous storms continue this afternoon east of Corpus Christi. A special Marine warning is in effect for the waters of Baffin Bay to Port Aransas and out 20-60 nautical miles and the waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel and out 20-60 nautical miles in effect until 2:45 PM CST. Strong to severe thunderstorms have moves out over the coastal waters of Texas near the coastal bend. This storm was 15 miles east of Baffin Bay and or 20 nautical miles east of port Aransas moving eat at 30 mph.

Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 50 knots, quarter sized hail, frequent lightning, locally high waves, and very heavy downpours. Boaters should have seeked safe harbor immediately until this line of storms passes.

Looking ahead, More severe wx potential does exist further east and northeastward into southeastern Texas and south central Louisiana as well later today into tonight. This does include Houston, Galveston, Beaumont, and Lake Charles. Lake Charles has received over 16.63 inches of rain for the year 2004 so far. That's 8.3 inches above normal for the year. So the potential is there for flash flooding as well in these same areas. The main severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds. However an isolated tornado is possible, especially over southern Louisiana where higher instability exsists.

Meanwhile the storm prediction center has issued a tornado watch for central Florida and the adjacent coastal waters in effect until 4 PM EST. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon across central Florida, some of which could be severe with large hail, high winds, dangerous lightning, and heavy downpours. However with the tornado watch in effect, conditions are favorable for tornadoes too. Tornadoes can develop suddenly from severe thunderstorms. If a threat exists for tornadoes or if a warning is issued for your area, seek shelter on the lowest level of your home, preferably a basement or a center room on the lowest floor, away from windows. Also covering yourself can protect you from debris.

Keep that in mind as severe weather season approaches.

jim

[ColdFront77]

The chance for tornadoes has decreased across central Florida. A sliver of the watch remains in effect from the Tampa to Orlando area to the Space Coast; at the rate the box has been cancelled, the watch may not be in effect for any location in central Florida until 4:00 pm EST.

[Josephine96]

Thank you for the update Jim.. I almost thought that was going to be the 2pm update from Noaa in Melbourne though lol

[ColdFront77]

John, I heard the 2:00 pm update... It was a live broadcast... the two meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Melbourne said that a Flood Watch will be issued for possible heavy rains for a portion of the forecast area.

We are currently in a lull, as the atmosphere heats up and the air becomes more unstable, strong to severe thunderstorms are again possible late tonight into Wednesday morning.

The activity will finally come to an end sometime on Thursday as the showers and storms from the Gulf of Mexico move toward and through the Sunshine State.

[Josephine96]

Ah ok.. so a flood watch is most likely in the works here.. We just had a quick "squall" or whatever it would be called, move through here.

Any idea on if there will be a reissuing of the tornado watch after 4pm..?

In my humble opinion they should consider it.

[ColdFront77]

The data they (and we) are looking at include the developing low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico and of course the surface boundary along with the afternoon heating and upper level dynamics.

They did mention that a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch may be needed late tonight or early tomorrow/some day on Wednesday.

Apparently the National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Norman, Oklahoma is still issuing Severe Weather Watches for the United States.

[Josephine96]

Thank you for that Tom.. I do think they may have to issue another watch.

I remember on 2/22-23 1998, they issued several watches.. 1 after the other once they expired.

I know this is not the same situation { I hope} but that was just a thought

[ColdFront77]

You're welcome, John.

With this lull in the heaviest activity now taking place and current indications showing that this exisiting watch box (the southeastern portion of it) in effect until 4:00 pm EST... I wouldn't be surprised this sliver is cancelled in the next 92 minutes.

[Josephine96]

So they may indeed reissue a watch later tonight..? I just saw that on part of your post about the threat for late tonight or early Wednesday..

My guess is also that they will be issuing another HWO around 5pm eastern. I could be wrong so don't quote me lol

[ColdFront77]

Here is the Flood Watch, well the Flood Watches.....


BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2004

...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE...
ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS LAKE...VOLUSIA AND ORANGE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 5
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING TO DEVELOP.
RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA...PARTICULARLY THOSE LIVING IN THE MORE
FLOOD PRONE...LOWER LYING LOCATIONS...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACT
QUICKLY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR
BECOMES IMMINENT. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS...AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE BY LISTENING TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

$$


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

CITRUS...HERNANDO...LEVY...PASCO AND SUMTER.

.MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...IN COMBINATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ENHANCE RAINFALL NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
STREAM ONSHORE OF THE WARNED AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. [u]MANY AREAS
HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED OVER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND...STREAMS...AND RIVER BASINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

RESIDENTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AS WELL AS
THOSE LIVING NEAR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$


BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH VALID
UNTIL 600 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...
GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...SAINT JOHNS...
SUWANNEE AND UNION.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS

NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. AVERAGE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SINCE 4 PM MONDAY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TOTALLED AROUND 2 INCHES
OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF A SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
GAINESVILLE LINE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS FURTHER RISES IN LOCAL RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK
PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK
ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES OR WARNINGS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

CARROLL/PC

[Josephine96]

Stuff about the Flood Watch but no new HWO yet. I have the feeling they will issue a new HWO around 5pm or so.

If I'm wrong.. I think they will anyway since they say nasty weather is still possible

[wx247]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...

VALID 241904Z - 242100Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL FL
AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SEWD ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 13. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORM TO WEAKEN...AND IF TREND CONTINUES A NEW WW
DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 13 WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL FL AHEAD
OF A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING ABOUT 1200 J/KG
OF MLCAPE PRESENT. HOWEVER...CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST
OF SC WHICH IS CAUSING THE SFC WIND TO SLOWLY VEER ACROSS CNTRL FL.
IN ADDITION...THE LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD INTO WARMER AIR ALOFT
WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2004


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

27488251 28298156 28548080 27268037 26688201

[ColdFront77]

The meteorologists on Melbourne, FL National Weather Service Live Broadcast at 2:00 pm ET mentioned that the Flood Watch would be issued because the vegetation across east-central, north-central and west-central is so dry that the ground cannot hold enough water... with the expectation of 1 to 3 more inches bringing totals in some places to 5 inches.

An interesting evening, overnight and Wednesday... with the chances of rain (and perhaps some embedded storms) through Thursday morning or into the early afternoon.

[Josephine96]

Yes..Tom I think it will be an interesting evening.. I believe they at the SPC may need to consider reissuing the watch. I know I have already said that lol.. But it's still pretty warm here plus I think we may still rock and roll a bit.

[ColdFront77]

There are other dynamics that come together for severe weather potential, not just the heating at the surface, which of course is important.

Like I thought, the entire Tornado Watch (the southeastern portion of the box that was in effect for the last 1 1/2 to 2 hours) has been cancelled.

[Josephine96]

Well the watch is only in effect for 10 more minutes anyhow.

I do know there are several other factors by the way lol

Heating at the surface
An approaching cold front
The current position of the jet stream
Current Dewpoints {for air moistness}

I'm not saying all these factors are coming into play.. but those are some of the factors..

Also remember... Storms from the Gulf are more dangerous from storms in the Atlantic. The water in the GOM is much warmer which gives the thunderstorms more energy as well. 1 of the main reasons I remember them being so worried about 2/23/98 was because of the GOM waters..

By the way Tom.. what do you think will happen severe weather wise around here..? Are we in for a rough night..? or is it again going to be a lot of hype and no action lol

[therock1811]

I do think that sometime later this evening a new threat will develop to the NW...and should push across C FL towards 1 or 2am early morning...do not believe that tornadoes are likely ATTM...as mentioned CAPES do remain high...and will for about 6-8 more hours...the cold front is not slated to push thru until tomorrow night at the earliest...so will have the threat for severe storms Wednesday as well. BTW the action isn't over for the daytime either...a new batch is pushing right into the western suburbs of Orlando now...and will move off the coast by around 8pm...

[therock1811]

Here's the Melbourne Long range radar:

[ColdFront77]

[Josephine96]

Hey Jeremy.. Thank you for the information. So you think the threat for twisters isn't that high right now..? Melbourne NWS has us at a moderate risk on their hazards graphics.

Do you think they will issue another tornado/severe storm watch in a couple hours..?