major storm for golden state, 50 foot rogue waves possible!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening folks. An amazing storm system is expected to plow into northern California starting later tonight, then slam into the rest of the state by later Wednesday into Wednesday night with huge seas with up to 50 foot rogue waves possible, coastal flooding, strong winds, heavy rains in the lower elevations and a tremendous amount of snow in the higher elevations. The following is a breakdown region by region as to the expectations from this major storm system across the golden state!!!

Starting in the coastal areas where numerous advisories are in effect tonight. From Point St George, California to Cape Mendocino, California and out 20-60 nautical miles, a storm warning is in effect tonight through Wednesday morning. A heavy surf advisory is in effect tonight through Thursday night. Expect increasing sustained winds from 40-55 mph with higher gusts tonight and this is expected to continue into Wednesday morning for the northern california coast. High wind warnings are in effect for coastal communities such as Crescent City and Eureka, California. This means expect sustained winds of 25-45 mph with gusts over 65 mph along the beaches and higher elevations also. Seas are expected to increase to over 20 feet tonight and 30-40 feet on Wednesday along the northern California coast.

Further south, winds and seas will increase gradually tonight and increase rapidly during the day Wednesday across central California including San Francisco and Monterrey Bay. Winds and seas will increase rapidly late Wednesday into Wednesday night for southern California coast. Breaking it down region by region, gale warnings are in effect for the entire central California coast tonight through Wednesday. This includes the San Francisco and Monterrey Bay areas. Coastal flooding is also a possibility as well, thus a coastal flood watch is in effect for the central California coast later Wednesday into Thursday. For tonight, expect winds to increase to 40-50 mph sustained with gusts over 60 mph. Seas are expected to increase to near 17 feet later tonight. By Wednesday, expect sustained winds of 25-40 mph with gusts over 60 mph along the central California coast with seas up to 22-28 feet. However by Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will gradually subside along with the precipitation. However combined seas with the wind and high swell is expected to be 25-40 feet with rogue waves possibly reaching an amazing 50 FEET along the north central California coast. As a result of this, coastal flood threat will actually be highest Wednesday night into Thursday for the north central California coast. In addition to that, there are high wind warnings in effect for San Francisco for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Across the bay into Oakland, a wind advisory is in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Further south into southern California, the danger is not over as coastal flood watches are up Wednesday night through Thursday for the San Diego beaches while gale warnings stretch all the way down the southern California coast to Long Beach for Wednesday evening. South of Long Beach, small craft advisories will be hoisted for Wednesday night into Thursday. However gale force gusts could be felt all the way down to the US/Mexican border along the coast including in San Diego. Seas could be in excess of 20-25 feet in southern California before we're all said and done with this.

In addition to the coastal impact, there is impacts expected courtesy of precipitation and heavy precipitation as well. A flood watch is up for Wednesday and Thursday for the central Valley of California including the Sacrmento, and San Joaquin Valley, and surrounding foothills including Lake Counties. Rainfall amounts will range from 1-2 inches in the valley locations to 2-3 inches in the foothills and surrounding Lake County. Significant rises of creeks, streams, and small rivers are expected and more rain is expected on thursday in this same area. Meanwhile in the higher elevations of the Sierra above 5000 feet, expect 2-3 feet of snow on Wednesday and 1-2 feet on top of that on Thursday. 3-5 feet of snow is likely in the Sierra's above 5000 feet. In the Mount Shasta area above 4000 feet, 2-3 feet of snow is likely to fall between now and Thursday. More snow is expected beyond this time period.

Further south into southern California, flood watches are up for Los Angeles and San Diego including in the burned areas of Simi Valley, the San Bernardino Mountains, and the San Diego Mountains. Burned ares will be most suspectible to dangerous flooding and potentially deadly rockslides and mudslides later Wednesday through Thursday. Rainfall total of 2-4 inches is expected for Los Angeles and San Diego with 4-8 inches possible in the burned areas and in orographically favored zones. This will only worsen the flooding and mudslides we have experienced over the past few days. We need precipitation, unfortunately it's all expected to happen at once across southern California. In addition to heavy rains, expect heavy mountain snows initially above 7000 feet on Wednesday evening, and 4000 feet by later Thursday. Up to 2 feet of snow is possible above 7000 feet in southern California. Wind gusts of 60-75 mph is possible in the higher moutnain peaks of southern California including in the Grapevine north of Los Angeles.

This is a dangerous storm system that should be taken seriously. Prepare to lose power and face the potential of property damage with this storm system in California. Travel is not advisable, especially near flood prone areas, in the ski resorts, and near the coast as well. In the case of flood prone areas, if you run into water covered roads, turn around and find another route. Turn around and don't drown. Along the coast, very high surf and coastal flooding could damage coastal property and make travel along the coastal roads impossible. In the mountains, heavy snows and blizzard conditions could potentially shut roads such as route 50 and I 80 in the Sierra over the next day or two. Snow chains are a must if you absolutely have to travel in the Sierra. However the best option is don't travel at all through the Sierra and in the higher elevated areas of I 5 near Mount Shasta!!! This is a dangerous storm system and more updates will be issued throughout the night and into Wednesday!!

Jim

[Guest]

50 ft waves!!!

Take care everyone out on the west coast.

[WXBUFFJIM]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
243 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2004

MARINE...ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND WIND THE GWW WAVE MODEL CONTINUES
TO FORECAST SEAS UP TO 40 FEET...WITH POSSIBLE ROGUE WAVES TO AN
AMAZING 50 FEET...TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE BIG
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SWELLS REACHING THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY (SFOCFWMTR...WMO
HEADER WHUS46 KMTR). THE MAX SWELLS ARE FOCUSED RIGHT ON SAN
FRANCISCO. THUS...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL NOT BE GOOD DAYS TO BE
OUT ON THE OCEAN OR ALONG THE BEACH. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (SFOMWSMTR...WMO HEADER FZUS76
KMTR).

and all of this is directing onto San Francisco Bay. This is a dangerous situation. Stay tuned.

Jim

[Josephine96]

Sounds like it could get nasty for the Californians.. I hope they're ok when it passes

[therock1811]

50 foot waves...what kind of impact will this mean for SF proper? Are we talking major roads into the city closed?

[Guest]

50 foot waves...what kind of impacxt will this mean for SF proper? Are we talking major roads into the city closed?

Unlike, say, New Orleans, flooding is probably not high on San Francisco's priority list. So, there could be some washed out roads. Earthquakes are more of the city's concern, most likely, than flooding.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Earthquakes are a daily part of life in San Francisco and across most of California. But 50 foot rogue waves near the central CA coast is dangerous and it doesn't happen everyday.

Jim

[Josephine96]

50 foot waves huh.. That's kinda high

[weatherlover427]

I'm watching this storm very closely here. Looking like our worst since maybe the last big El Nino. :o

[Guest]

Be safe, Josh!

[weatherlover427]

I will. I may not be online as much as I had hoped tomorrow though since I'm moving Friday.

[vbhoutex]

My mother just flew out to the San Francisco area today to visit my Aunt and Uncle!!!! I've talked to her this evening and she said they are indeed under all sorts of warnings for high winds and heavy rainfall. They are about 40 miles East of SF in Pleasanton. They plan to stay at home tomorrow because of it.

Sounds almost like a forecast for a strong tropical storm raking the coast from north to south.

[Guest]

NWS SFO has like about 4 or 5 headlines running now in the ZFP!

Very active warning map on California NWS offices as well!

[aveosmth]

I am really worried about this storm....I have several relatives that live in the burn areas of Southern California....as you all know, hundreds of thousands of acres were scorched last October and if the rainfall reaches the level that they predict....we could be in some serious, serious trouble....

Avery

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hopefully they stay safe and know what to do in the event that flash flooding and mudslides occur. The rain part of this is expected to begin over the burned areas by later this afternoon into early evening and last all night.

Three burned areas, all of which are huge. Simi Valley north of Los Angeles is the first area of concern. The next is San bernardino County Mountains, and the third is the San Diego County Mountains. This area will only need 1/2 inch an hour to start flooding and that will probably be exceeded easily with this storm system with 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates at times. Forecast rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches is possible in burned areas tonight through early Friday. Snow amounts could exceed 2 feet above 7000 feet in elevation. There is also a wind factor involved with this storm. The strongest winds will be over higher peaks of southern California with gusts near hurricane force at times. Lower elevations will likely see alot less wind, but still gusts 30-45 mph.

The intensity of this is only one element to this storm. It's the prolonged duration that concerns alot of folks and meteorologists!!! I being a weather watcher, I'm concerned as well and hope everyone in California stays safe.

Jim

[Aslkahuna]

just offshore indicate peak winds of up to 51kt occurred ahead of the front with maximum wave heights in the 18ft range. Further offshore the bouys were indicating 30+ ft waves off the NoCA/OR coasts. As far as SFO is concerned, most roads leading into the City are behind the coastal hills or up in them so for the commutes this would not be a problem. However, coastal flooding would be a problem for people living near or just behind the Beaches and the access roads there as well as Highway 1 in certain places along the coast. Coastal flooding is also a big concern in SoCA. One thing about the Left Coast is that unlike the East Coast, there is always a decent fetch so that swells can propagate a LONG way (high surf off the SoCA beaches can be generated thousands of miles away) whereas nor'easters have to develop their own.

Steve

[Guest]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
719 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2004


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ALAMEDA COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...LIVERMORE...DUBLIN


* UNTIL 745 PM PST


* AT 715 PM PST...SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
2 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLEASANTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.


HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.


REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA.


LAT...LON 3778 12177 3776 12199 3750 12196 3751 12168


$$
STROBIN/DYKEMA

[Anonymous]

Anybody up for some serious surfing? And I don't mean web-surfing LOL


-Jeb