Severe weather outlook for later today

[Josephine96]

As I get ready to go sleep for a few hours... What does everybody think the severe weather outlook here in Central Florida will be..?

I know the NWS doesn't issue it's HWO till around 5 am, but will I be waking up under a tornado/severe storm watch..?

If anyone is out there.. I'd like some opinions, even if I don't get them till morning lol

[Josephine96]

I guess none of you have any opinions lol ok

[Anonymous]

Watch Possible soon.... South Fla

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 AM CST WED FEB 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 251406Z - 251600Z

SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN FL LATER THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN GULF WITH A
STRONG CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS SRN FL FROM LEE COUNTY TO SRN MARTIN COUNTY. AN EXTENSIVE
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE VERY
MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG TSTMS HAVE BEEN
TRAINING ENEWD ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY ALL NIGHT WITH STORMS WEAKENING
UPON CROSSING THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING NEWD. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG AND PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED BOWING STORM MOVING
EWD TOWARD SANIBEL ISLAND. THIS STORM WILL TRACK NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INTO SRN LEE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN
LATEST CELL MOTION AROUND 30KT...ONLY A LIMITED WIND THREAT SHOULD
EXIST WITH THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM TRACKS
TOWARD THE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

HOWEVER...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL
THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE ASCENT
CONTINUING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION.

[MWatkins]

MIA NWS...which had been blowing off this event as they bought into the idea that the upper dynamics would be too far north...is on the opposite end today. the warm front sagging southward should be the focus of most of the severe weather...helicity values are plenty for severe south of the lake. Here's a note from the NWS AFD append from this morning:

MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH HELICITY VALUES QUITE HIGH ALREADY AND IF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND ABUNDANT HEATING WILL CREATE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRE-BOUNDARY ACTIVITY FORMING EVEN THIS MORNING.

I would expect to see a tornado watch in the next hour.

MW

[Anonymous]

WW #14 will be issued soon

WWUS30 KWNS 251529
SAW4
SPC AWW 251535
WW 14 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 251535Z - 252100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
80W MIA/MIAMI FL/ - 20NE MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM EITHER SIDE /50SSE FMY - 18NE MIA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
WWWW

[Guest]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1033 AM EST WED FEB 25 2004


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF IMMOKALEE


* UNTIL 1100 AM EST


* AT 1030 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF IMMOKALEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BUNKER HILL.


IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


LAT...LON 2649 8154 2649 8144 2652 8140 2652 8130
2634 8130 2634 8140 2631 8144 2631 8160


$$


PS

[Guest]

024
WWUS20 KWNS 251533
SEL4
SPC WW 251535
FLZ000-CWZ000-252100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 14
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EST WED FEB 25 2004


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF


SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS


EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1035 AM UNTIL
400 PM EST.


HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA TO 20
MILES NORTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE AFTERNOON. INFLUX OF RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 28035.


...DIAL/HART


;263,0814 264,0800 251,0795 250,0812;

[Josephine96]

But it has been an eerily quiet day here. We have had clouds and no rain. There hasn't even been much of a breeze here. Makes me wonder if the atmosphere is getting ready to pop a little bit here..

[ColdFront77]

I don't believe I heard "thunderstorms" in the forecast for central Florida on my NOAA Weather Radio this morning... for later today and tonight from Ruskin and Jacksonville, but here are the forecasts for three NWS offices (notice the rare update times):

Ruskin, FL (Sumter county) issued at 3:00 pm EST:

This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chance for precipitation is 50%. Partly cloudy, with a high around 70. East wind around 8 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chance for precipitation is 50%. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly before 1pm. Chance for precipitation is 40%. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. South wind at 8 mph becoming west.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low near 46. North northwest wind around 8 mph.


Jacksonville, FL (Marion county) issued at 1:01 pm EST:

Today. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday night. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the early evening. Lows in the upper 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.


Melbourne, FL (northern Lake county) issued at 9:00 am EST:

This Afternoon: Scattered showers. Chance for precipitation is 50%.
Mostly cloudy, with a high around 72. East wind around 8 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Chance for precipitation is 50%. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 59. East northeast wind at 8 mph becoming south southeast.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 75. Light wind becoming west southwest between 11 and 14 mph.


Showers and storms continue to move eastward from the Gulf of Mexico in association with this frontal system/storm system.

At this time (according to NWS as well as the NSSFC in Norman, OK, storms aren't expected to be severe, but nonetheless there is still some "weather left" with this storm system.

[Josephine96]

So as per usual Tom.. the storms are all talk and no action here lol..

I haven't seen a drop of rain today

[ColdFront77]

I wouldn't say the storms are "all talk and now action." If the forecast was indeed changed, adding thunderstorms... then this feature is still giving central Florida a chance of some action; severe weather isn't always "action."

[Anonymous]

All we have had is cold, drizzly windy-power went out for a bit.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL 9 PM...

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SUCH AS VANS
AND TRUCKS...ESPECIALLY ON AREA BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. DRIVE WITH
CAUTION AND KEEP BOTH HANDS ON THE STEERING WHEEL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHER ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

[Josephine96]

LOL true.. Severe weather isn't always action lol.. I guess I'm spoiled lol

[ColdFront77]

Surface and upper level low moving eastward from Texas, perhaps a bit of a southerly component, hence the chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight.


Gulf of Mexico Water Vapor Image:



Click -----> Gulf of Mexico Water Vapor Loop


Gulf of Mexico Visible Satellite Image:




Click -----> Gulf of Mexico Visible Satellite Loop


Gulf of Mexico Infrared Satellite Image:




Click -----> Gulf of Mexico Infrared Satellite Loop

[Josephine96]

Thank you for the satellite photos tom..

[ColdFront77]

You're welcome, John.


U.S. Visible Satellite Loop

U.S. Infrared Satellite Loop

U.S. Water Vapor Satellite Loop


Updated FOREcasts:

Northern Lake county issued at EST:

Tonight: Scattered rain. Chance for precipitation is 50%. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low near 58. East wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.


Northern Oseola county, FL issued at :

Tonight: Rain likely, mainly between 7pm and 1am. Chance for precipitation is 60%. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low near 61. South wind between 3 and 8 mph.


Sumter county issued at 4:00 pm EST:

Late Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chance for precipitation is 50%. Partly cloudy, with a high around 70. East wind around 8 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chance for precipitation is 50%. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.


Marion county issued at 4:10 pm EST:

Tonight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Breezy during the evening. Lows near 50. Northeast winds 15 mph. Diminishing to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.