I've Got T-storms Possible Sunday!!!!!

[Guest]

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 15
TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH..MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. WINDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
$$

Look at the OAX AFD from Saturday morning...mini supercells???????

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WHEN
TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WHAT
POINT WILL THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISPARITY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
WHERE THE DRY PUNCH WILL ULTIMATELY SET UP.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WE WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. STILL
LOOKING AT A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO UPPER
50S FAR SOUTH...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION...HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY FOR STRONG DYNAMICS AND
GENEROUS LIFT TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPRING CAN'T BE FAR
BEHIND. MESOETA INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE DRY PUNCH ALOFT BECOMES VERY APPARENT. THUS...FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...JUST THINKING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PATTEN LOOKS SIMILAR
TO A MINI SUPERCELL TYPE SYSTEM. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA...PLAN TO REDUCE THE POPS THEN ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND
WILL THEREFORE INTRODUCE A MIX OF PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...PLAN TO
RUN JUST CHANCE POPS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO HIGH LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AS SNOW END BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA.

ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SETTING UP AS WOUND UP
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE IN THE TIME FRAME OF
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE INDICATING 20 TO 25
KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS. IF THAT RINGS TRUE...WE'LL LIKELY NEED SOME
KIND OF ADVISORY AT SOME POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION WHERE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP. THE PREVIOUS ECMWF PUSHED THE PRECIPITATION
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE ECMWF FROM THE 27TH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.IA...NONE.

&&

$$

DEWALD

SPC Day 2...


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
CNK 30 SE BIE 30 E STJ 10 SW SZL 40 W TBN 25 SW UNO 55 N LIT 30 ENE
ELD 45 N POE 45 WSW POE 50 NW BPT 50 WNW HOU 50 SE AUS 15 ENE AUS 15
NE TPL 40 E DAL 40 NNW PRX 25 S MKO 20 NNE TUL 15 SE ICT 15 W RSL 50
WNW CNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W PSX 20 NE SAT 40
ENE SPS 45 ENE CSM 30 SW GCK 10 NE GLD 10 E BUB 40 SE FSD 25 WSW RST
10 W LNR 30 E MLI BLV 25 ENE MEM 30 WNW JAN 30 W 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVING E OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BEGINNING OF
FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS
NEXT STRONG S/WV DIGS SEWD ALONG PAC NW COAST. SURFACE LOW TO LEE OF
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NEB SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS KS/OK INTO CENTRAL TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL KS/OK AND N TX
EARLY IN PERIOD TO BE OVER LOWER MO VALLEY SWWD INTO NERN TX BY
SUNDAY EVENING. 70-80KT 500MB JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN TX
DURING DAY AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVES
RAPIDLY NEWD FROM SRN ROCKIES. BY EVENING MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL
EXTEND FROM NERN TX INTO WRN MO AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.

LIMITING PARAMETER PRECLUDING THE FORECASTING OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER DAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS IS THE
EXPECTED LACK OF INSTABILITY. WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF...THE TIME IS
INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW AIR MASS INLAND TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY
PRIOR TO THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THRU.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
12Z IN STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL KS SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. MODELS SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION PERSISTING AS IT MOVES E/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING DAY. BY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL HAVE
OCCURRED TO DEVELOP MUCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS NERN TX WITH
LESSOR INSTABILITY NWD INTO WRN AR/ERN OK. GIVEN THE STRONG SFC-6KM
SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND FAVORABLE SFC-1KM HELICITIES FROM 200-300
M2/S2...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SRN PORTION OF SLIGHT AREA DURING AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ATTM
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND FIELDS.

ACROSS ERN KS...STEEP LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
AND COLD AIR ALOFT ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF SURFACE AND UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND
OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING EWD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ETA/GFS FORECAST SFC LI/S OF MINUS 2-4 WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 8C/KM AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ONLY IN 40S AND TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 60F...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN CONVERGENCE
ON THE E/SE SIDE OF SURFACE LOW IN THE DRY SLOT ROTATING NEWD ACROSS
THIS AREA. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND EWD INTO WRN MO PRIOR TO WEAKENING AFTER
DARK AS AIR MASS LOSSES ITS INSTABILITY.

..HALES.. 02/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

[Anonymous]

Yall enjoy as it looks like the beginnings of your real severe weather season with the threat of storms as far north as the Kansas/Oklahoma border--storm season 2004 is: GAME ON Have to wait a bit longer here though till the summer to get our daily sea breeze storms--but they will come too