Severe weather outbreak potential today

[WXBUFFJIM]

The storm prediction center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed north central Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and most of west central Arkansas in a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms today into tonight. Hail to golfball sized, wind gusts to 80 mph, and possibly a few strong tornadoes could accompany this activity today.

The following communities have the potential to see severe thunderstorms including tornadoes this afternoon.

Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex
Abilene
Tyler
Plano
Waco
Austin
San Antonio
College Station
TexArKana

Later tonight, expect a squall line to develop and track rapidly east with possible widespread wind damage. The following communities need to be on the lookout for widespread wind damage potential and possibly isolated tornadoes as well.

Little Rock
Fort Smith
Shreveport
Lake Charles
Beaumont
Port Arthur
Houston
Galveston

An upper level disturbance is tracking east northeast towards west Texas at this time. Surface cyclogenesis should develop quickly in association with this. Trailing this surface low will be a cold front and a dryline surging into Texas. Along and ahead of these features, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop. While cloud cover will tend to limit heating a bit, even just alittle bit of sunshine will result in a significant severe weather episode given the strong dynamic forcing associated with this storm. Strong shear will be present with southwest winds aloft and southeasterly surface winds. That veering of the winds with height could result in storms rotating, becoming supercells, and possibly being tornadic. Another factor that will fuel severe weather is the presence of a huge subtropical moisture feed advecting in from the eastern equatorial Pacific. All areas from north central Texas eastward through eastern, southeastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana, eastern Oklahoma, and west central Arkansas need to pay close attention to the weather today. Severe storms are capable in producing large hail, significant and widespread wind damage, and a few strong tornadoes. Take shelter whenever a warning is issued for your area.

Finally in review: Notice the difference between a severe weather watch and warning. A severe thunderstorm or a tornado watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms and or tornadoes in and near the watch area. A severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued when severe weather or a tornado is immient, observed by either a person, or observed by doppler radar. Take shelter immediately whenever a severe thunderstorm or a tornado warning is issued. Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with little or no advanced warning. Mobile homes should be abondoned immediately. You want to be on the lowest floor of a sturdy structure. From there, you want to be in that center room of the house or business, preferably a basement. A hall, closet, bathroom are all good ideas, but stay away from windows. Also cover your head to protect yourself from flying debris. This is a potentially dangerous situation today.

More updates throughout the day guaranteed!!! Stay safe today in the south central United States.

Jim

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Jim. Hope there is no damage or injuries from these storms!