1630z OUTLOOK

[WXBUFFJIM]

A severe weather and tornado outbreak are expected across north central Texas and south central Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight.

There is a high risk of severe thunderstorms including potentially destructive tornadoes across north Texas and into south central Oklahoma including Wichita Falls, TX, Tulsa, OK and Oklahoma City, OK.

South and east of that, there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds being the main threats across north central Texas including the communities of Abilene, San Angelo, Dallas, Fort Worth, Plano, Tyler, Waco, and College Station, TX.

An upper level low is ejecting east from northern Old Mexico into west Texas. Abundant gulf moisture continues to advect in from the Gulf Of Mexico. Subtropical moisture continues to advect in from the southwest. There is also daytime heating ahead of the developing squall line courtesy of a dry slot. This is creating very unstable conditions. This instability combined with very strong dynamic forcing and high levels of shear will result in a dangerous and potentially deadly severe weather outbreak today into tonight. Deadly tornadoes are likely, especially in the high risk area from northern Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma and in other areas.

The tornadoes and severe thunderstorms are affecting a line from Abilene to San Angelo as of 12:15 PM CST. This line with embedded supercells will race northeast through northern anc central Texas and through much of east central Oklahoma through early evening. Widespread wind damage and strong tornadoes are likely within this location. Large hail is also possible.

Anyone that is underneath a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning should take action immediately. You need to abandon mobile homes. You want to be in the sturdy shelter on the lowest floor, preferably a basement. If you don't have a basement, then a interior room away from windows such as a hall, a closet, or a interior bathroom will work. This is a dangerous situation. Take shelter whenever you receive these warnings!!

Jim