Will March Roar Out Like A Lion?

[Guest]

Well we all know how the saying goes.
"If, March comes in like a Lamb, it will roar out like a Lion!"
Based on what I have seen, the second part of March should be stormy.
After looking at the MRF (10 Day Forecast Loop) and GFS (192-384 hours Loop) shows a quiet period till late in the month.
We will continue to see snows across the most northern portions of the Nation. This means, Michigan, and the Midwest, and Northeast will continue to remain in a Winter Patter. The colder Canadian air is still drifting south of the border, and this mixed with the northern jet stream bring moisture in across and along the Canadian/United States Border. This is seen in the MRF. Across the south, warm temps will be the norm.
As we move beyond the 240 hours of the MRF, we need to look at the GFS Long Term Loop. This will show a large area of Low Pressure pooling off the Pacific Northwest Coast. This is an indication that things will be changing. We could see a major longwave system enter the Nation late in the month, and possibly create a major Severe Weather Event to allow March to Roar Out Like a Lion!
Now, based on my experience with long term models, especially the GFS, this will be 2-3 days sooner, where the GFS has a longwave trough across the Nation on the 31st, and the potential of this developing or not is pretty much a coin toss. But, as quiet as the weather across the Nation has been, except the Severe Storm system that wreaked havoc across Texas early in the month, we should be vigil and keep an eye on this area off the Pacific Coast later in the month.
For now, it looks like we will have some nice Spring like weather across the South, above normal temps for the Desert Southwest, and cold winter like conditions from the Dakota's east through the Great Lakes, and Midwest, and into the Northeast.
Another problem I forsee occuring, is the potential for massive flooding across the North due to the amounts of snow that have accumalated. This of course will have to be monitored.
Till the next time, Keep an Eagle eye to the sky!

[Stephanie]

Well, with the potential for snow pretty much to the north and west of me, it seems like the "lion" has been delayed, but is now at the door step! It sure will be interesting the next few weeks as we officially hop into Spring and then into the heart of the Severe Weather season.

[Guest]

I am in agreement here with Bob. Everything he has said is true plus some other data i have seen suggest this active pattern will continue over the next couple of weeks with snow to the north and perhaps some severe wx episodes to the south.

Today it was almost 50 and tomorrow i am expecting temps to remian in the high 20s to perhaps 30 at best with a winter storm moving thru leaving the by far the most snow i have seen all season.

Areas out in IA and NE have already seen as much as 2 feet of snow from this system!

Steph i still think you may eek out a couple of inches before the changeover happens with another inch or so at the end.

[Rainband]

The rain we are getting is welcomed for this time of year. It's like El Nino conditions isn't it??

[chadtm80]

Yep Rainband.. MUCH appreciated rain here today and tommorow will be more of the same My grass is very thankfull lol

[therock1811]

As it should be...much needed rain down there and it will continue IMO for at least another 1-2 days...

[Guest]

Finally!!!! But. it will be little accumalations, mostly .5-1" with some isolated areas receiving up to 2".
But, with this rain system comes lightning! Yikes!!! The dry conditions are not a good mixture with lightning, especially up here where it's been the driest I've seen since 1998.
As for the systems up north, the northern jet stream will remain active, but the subtropical jet stream will remain quiet this week, and next. We may not see the next actual souther storm system till the last week of March. The heat will be building across the South, and as one post says, the Southwest is heating up!
This will be the fuel to feed the next longwave that develops across the nation, and this isn't seen in any of the medium or long range forecast models till the last week of March.

[Stephanie]

Steph i still think you may eek out a couple of inches before the changeover happens with another inch or so at the end.

That's pretty much what's happening this morning. The snow came down pretty heavily starting at around 7:00 am. By 7:40 when I was leaving for work, we had a good 1/2 inch on the ground and it was starting to mix with sleet. From what I heard on the radio before I reached Atlantic City, it was still snowing in Philadelphia (and hour later). I pretty much drove through sleet and then all rain as I got closer to the coast.

[Guest]

especially in March, as the SST;s warm a bit, and the warmer air is pumped inland.
The thing I'm learning about the Atlantic SST's will be mentioned in my 2004 Hurricane Seasonal predictions. Hehe can't even give a hint!!

[Rainband]

especially in March, as the SST;s warm a bit, and the warmer air is pumped inland.
The thing I'm learning about the Atlantic SST's will be mentioned in my 2004 Hurricane Seasonal predictions. Hehe can't even give a hint!!

Does it have something to do with the intensity of the Storms in years to come?? Has Global Warming finally reared it's ugly head hehe