Forecast Concern in Puerto Rico...Volcanic Ash?

[Stormsfury]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST MON MAR 17 2003

QUESTION MARK CONTINUES FOR UPCOMING WEATHER. GFS HAS BEEN WAVERING
ON TIMING BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. FROM WHAT I CAN TELL THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WILL LEAVE THE UPPER END OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ENTIRE PACKAGE WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
THAT THE MODELS HAVE BE PROJECTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...VOlCANIC ASH CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREAS. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING EMISSIONS FROM THE
MONTSERAT VOLCANO ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL BE CONSTANTLY MONITORING
THE VOLCANO AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TURN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MANY CHANGES. NORTH SWELL TO AFFECT
WATERS TODAY. SMALL SEAS SUBSIDE DRAMATICALLY REST OF WEEK. WILL
INTRODUCE ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WW3
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF 11 SEC NORTHERLY SWELLS WHICH ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING FRIDAY.