Excerpt from SPC's Convective Outlook (Day 1)

[ColdFront77]

FL PENINSULA EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN
GULF AND MOVES EWD ACROSS PENINSULA. PREDOMINANT THREAT WOULD APPEAR
TO AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

[Allexpert Mike]

Mid level lapse rates still conditonally unstable (7-9C/KM). Expect those to conctinue to get steeper with the sfc heating continueing in NORTHERN FL. RUC shows some activity getting started in the Northenr part of FL in the next 2-3 hrs. Sfc dew points near 70F!,,,,,strong lifting between -4 to -6C. LCL-LFC RH reaching 90% showing deep convection looking good through the next few hrs once activity picks up along the Western coast of FL. Low level stretching not impressive at all so that iso. tornadoe wording shouldn't be nottin to worry about....but with the moderate-strong wind fields and sufficent deep layer shear (35-50KTS). Strong DCAPE values also point to the main threat being damaging winds..........

BELOW IS MY FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY FOR TODAY FOR THE SE------

Moderate LLJ structure will increase instability with the ll waa/isentropic lift. Strongest dynamics will be ahead of the cold front with FL being the main target for this threaten area. Ample low level-surface moisture is evident with dew points reaching 70F at the sfc and 12C at H8. SBCAPE values will be rather weak but in some areas we could see SBCAPE reach 1500j/kg. With cloud cover holding strong for the day across most of the threaten vicinity this will prevent diurnal heating and limit instability. Strongest wind fields staying post frontal will only allow for moderate deep layer shear profiles (35-45KTS). Strong upper level wind fields combined with the ample low level moisture and unidirectional shear profiles we could see some small scale bow segments. Main threats are for damaging winds and flooding (training possible).