NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR TORNADO ALLEY

[WXBUFFJIM]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 90
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT MON APR 19 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTHEAST OF DALHART TEXAS TO 60 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...AIRMASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND STRONG
HEATING OCCURS. WEAKENING CAP AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS GREATEST IN VICINITY OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HART

[Rainband]

Stay safe guys and gals

[WXBUFFJIM]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 91
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT MON APR 19 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL 1000
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO TO 10
MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SANDERSON TEXAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 90...

DISCUSSION...WELL DEFINED DRY LINE FROM LEA COUNTY NM SWD TO
BREWSTER COUNTY TX WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND A VEERING SHEAR PROFILE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL BUT ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE LIKELY IN MOST INTENSE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EWD OFF DRY LINE DURING
EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...HALES

[wx247]

New watch possible soon... new Mesoscale Discussion...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT MON APR 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN KS...EXTREME NW OK AND EXTREME SERN
CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 192323Z - 200130Z

SEVERE TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO SW KS OR FAR NW OK REGION FROM NERN
PORTIONS WW 90 AFTER 00Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INVOF
NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MOVING NWWD ATTM ACROSS NWRN
TX PANHANDLE AND OK PANHANDLE. FRONT ALSO IS MOVING NWD OVER KS/OK
BORDER AND WILL MOVE OVER SRN 2-3 TIERS OF KS COUNTIES OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTENING AIR MASS OVER AREA. NEARLY
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT JUST ABOVE SFC IN HVL/VCI PROFILER
DATA...WITH COMPARABLE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES OF SRH AVAILABLE TO BOTH
LEFT- AND RIGHT-MOVING STORMS. THEREFORE SOME LEFT MOVERS
ORIGINATING OVER TX PANHANDLE MAY MOVE NNEWD INTO SW KS -- PERHAPS
CLIPPING PORTIONS HARPER/ELLIS COUNTIES OK -- WITH THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE NOT AS
STRONG OVER THIS REGION AS FARTHER S ACROSS WWS 90-91...SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING. APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH - NOW
EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS SWD ALONG NM/AZ
BORDER -- WILL STRENGTHEN GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. ALSO IT WILL ENHANCE
LEE-SIDE ISALLOBARIC FORCING...HELPING TO MAINTAIN BACKED FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2004


ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...