POST CURRENT SVR WATCHES/MESO DISCUSSIONS HERE

[USAwx1]

We have a thread for warnings and hazardous wx outlooks, might as well have one for watches and Md's also.

[Guest]

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT FRI MAY 7 2004


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF


NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA


EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1020 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.


HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF YANKTON
SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA.


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...


DISCUSSION...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG 850 MB WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WATCH AREA DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITH ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WIND.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...CORFIDI


;435,0981 443,0920 420,0920 412,0981;


523
WWUS20 KWNS 080322
SEL0
SPC WW 080320
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080900-


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

[Guest]

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF


CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA


EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.


HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEARNEY
NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA.


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 163...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 164. WATCH NUMBER 163 164 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 825
PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 165...WW 166...WW 167...WW 168...


DISCUSSION...ON-GOING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVOLVING
INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
PROPAGATION COMPONENT SHOULD TAKE NEB ACTIVITY MAINLY SEWD...AND
WRN/CNTRL IA STORMS MAINLY SWD. DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL JET MAY
ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ATOP CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN N
CNTRL AND ERN IA...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.


...CORFIDI


;405,0993 433,0910 411,0910 383,0993;