Is the Drought in the West more than just a phase?

[vbhoutex]

From the NY Times.

At five years and counting the drought that has parched much of the West is getting much harder to shrug off as a blip.

Politicians, scientists, business leaders, city planners and environmentalists who worry about the future fo the West are increasingly realizing that a world of eternally blue skies a nd meager mountain snowpacks may not be a passing phenomenon but rather the return to a harsh climatic norm.

Continuing research into drought cycles over the last 800 years bears this out, strongly suggesting that the relatively wet weather during the 20th century was a fluke....The period since 1999 is now officially the driest in the 98 years of recorded history of the Colorado River, according to the US Geological Survey.

Lake Powell is at 40 percent of it's normal capacity or about the size it was in 1973 when it was still filling up.

Comments?? This could have MAJOR MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ALL OVER THE WEST!!!

[Stephanie]

I know that Steve, Asklhuna (I always get the spelling wrong! ) has had numerous posts about this being a long-time phase. The last drought lasted 16 years and I believe that it has to do with the PDO being ?negative? (correct me if I'm wrong). The PDO phases last a long, long time. Unfortunately, IMHO, the time between this current drought and the previous one, back in the 70's began another Western movement of the population into those areas where I really think it was not meant to sustain that large of a population to begin with.

[Aslkahuna]

here in Sierra Vista as 540 homeowners in the Ramsey Canyon area were informed of major water use restrictions along with no new hookups being made as well. Violators will get one warning and if they continue to violate the restrictions their service could be cut off without notice. They also announced that if conditions do not improve then they might go to a 4 hour on/off for service. There wells in the area are not meeting the storage demand without restrictions.

The PDO negative phase does enhance the drought though it does not
cause it.

Steve

[azsnowman]

From what I've read at some of the USDA Forest Service sites, we are in the beginning of the 8th year of a 40 year cycle. No water restrictions as of YET but, talking to the water meter reader (say that 4 times fast LOL)....we COULD be on restrictions within a month.

Our latest tree ring studies (samples taken from the Fort Apache Indian Reservation at Reservation Lake, elevation 9200', Lower Log Camp grounds, Hawley Lake, Carizzo Junction, Cedar Creek) are starting to show some very sobbering signs. Last year the NWS declared this current drought was the worst in 1400 years, we're NOW seeing indications that this IS, possibly, the WORST drought to EVER strike the SW!

Dennis

[Stephanie]

Thanks Steve for that!

[vbhoutex]

One thing that the article also touched on was the fact that the "wet cycle" encouraged millions to move into areas that have been normally very dry and basically not very habitable for most of time(as Stephanie alluded to also). I guess now we see if this current dry cycle holds for decades and starts to force movement back to "friendlier climes".

[Aslkahuna]

would be nice to see a mass migration back out of here like the abandonment of the Pre Columbian settlements here-leaving behind those of us who don't mind a dry climate but I fear that such will not be the case-at least for CA which is the biggest waster of water of all the States in the West though NV comes close thanks to Vegas.

Steve