Next 4-5 Days still look active

[Brett Adair]

This trough is going to pick up some steam today guys in the high plains as it begins to dive southward. I am beginning to worry that we could get some type of outbreak over the next couple of days. Low level moisture profiles and veering with height suggests an enhanced risk of supercells and possibly tornadoes today across SD/NE by late afternoon as the area will be rather unstable with MLCAPE values AOA 3000J/kg. Storm Relative Inflow along with developing baroclinic zone will enhance low level SRH values across the region in localized areas and IMO some isolated strong tornadoes will be possible this evening. Moderate risk upgrade by SPC will more than likely be needed by afternoon.

The activity will be more scattered to the south as deep layer shear profiles are lacking. Abundant low level moisture fields and strong instability will allow for some storms to develop into short lived severe mode on today across OK/ N TX area.

Wednesday
Trof really begins to swing out and it looks like KS/OK/Wrn MO could be in the line of fire. Main factor will be from where activity from the day 1 period moves. Looks as if low level converngence will be strong coupled with SBCAPE to 4000J/kg and deep layer shear of 40+ knots. This will allow for storms to develop into supercell mode in the region with MCS/LEWP structures also possible. Slight curve in Hodo's this morning shows that tornadic potential could exist in the region. Hatched 25% area exists on Day 2 from SPC and expect the area to be upgraded to MDT on later outlooks.

Thursday
Rather significant event could unfold in the region. Deep upper trof will bring down wind energy from the upper levels into the southern plains and this could result in a southern plains tornado outbreak for OK/TX. 70+ Td's in place suggests rich boundary layer with 25 knots of SRI and 45-50 knots of deep layer shear. Moderate Risk upgrade likely on the day 2. Only thing that could inhibit would be activity from Day 2 that would stabalize the area. Destabalization could occur in the region before activity breaks again...MUCAPE's to 4000J/kg and MULI's to -7° C on lastest analysis.

Friday
Activity should continue to march on eastward as suggested by the SPC/HPC. Expect some form of severe storms. Isolated supercells look possible with Linear squall line being more prominent along the cold front. Wind damage and hail potential will be high across much of an area from Srn IL to the Gulf Coast.

[Guest]

Storm Relative Inflow along with developing baroclinic zone will enhance low level SRH values across the region in localized areas and IMO some isolated strong tornadoes will be possible this evening. Moderate risk upgrade by SPC will more than likely be needed by afternoon.

Brett, I will certainly be paying attention to the weather the next day or two in my area. There is a 5% probability of tornadoes from south-central SD to central NE, with 2% area entering the extreme western fringe of my NWS' CWA. Severe storms may continue during the daytime hours across eastern NE and western IA on Wednesday also; though, I believe KS and MO are in the direct line of fire then.

[wx247]

Thanks for the heads up. I haven't been able to keep real close tabs on the severe threat the last day or so due to so much to do!!!

Keep me posted. I am getting ready to head back out to the yard.

[Guest]

SPC has gone ahead and upgraded to Moderate risk for tonight. Much of central/eastern SD, central NE, and northwest KS are included, with a slight risk for the rest of the plains and upper Mississippi valley.

Favorable wind shear, especially over the Moderate risk, may result in an isolated STRONG tornado or two. Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

THe storms should form a convective complex and move through the northern/central plains overnight tonight.

If you are in western Nebraska or south-central South Dakota, I would keep an eye on the weather situation as the day progresses.

[wx247]

I just noticed that. Things are coming together... especially across the western high plains for some storms today. The threat moves several hundred miles SE tomorrow.

[Brett Adair]

Figured this would occur and it is a good call by SPC. I am wondering if this stuff down near the GoM will cut off alot of the low level inflow to feed cells this evening. I think the complex down there will eventually move offshore opening up the door for some active/tornadic supercells later on.

Stay tuned...

[Brett Adair]

Figured this would occur and it is a good call by SPC. I am wondering if this stuff down near the GoM will cut off alot of the low level inflow to feed cells this evening. I think the complex down there will eventually move offshore opening up the door for some active/tornadic supercells later on.

Stay tuned...

[Brett Adair]

Figured this would occur and it is a good call by SPC. I am wondering if this stuff down near the GoM will cut off alot of the low level inflow to feed cells this evening. I think the complex down there will eventually move offshore opening up the door for some active/tornadic supercells later on.

Stay tuned...

[wx247]

Must be important Brett to have posted it three times. LMAO!!!