Active Weather Day Ahead for OK/TX

[Brett Adair]

Looks like the tornadic potential is going to shift towards the south today. Extreme instability in the afternoon of 4500J/kg with LI AOA -10°C coupled with increasing moisture/surface convergence will not make for a good combination. Seems as if initiation will begin along the dryline by 23z or so. Low pressure will be located in NWrn OK which will aid in getting Surface inflow kicked up around 25 knots. Deep layer shear AOA 40 knots will aid in strongly rotating updrafts in the most intense storms. This is a situation that looks to get rather rough in the afternoon. Expect SPC to upgrade the SLGT to MDT for OK/N TX/S KS later in the period.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-132200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
445 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTH TEXAS TODAY.  THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
AN ATHENS TO CAMERON LINE.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM...FORT WORTH...TO GOLDTHWAITE
LINE. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL STILL PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON...HILLSBORO...TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 300 PM NORTHWEST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE AND NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM...FORT
WORTH...TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE AFTER 600 PM.