June 2004: Expect Heat from the Summer Queen

[donsutherland1]

With regard to the weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States, temperatures have been running even warmer than outlined in the <b>May outlook</b> even as a generally warm month had been foreseen. The warmth has been especially pronounced from New York City southward.

Mean temperatures through May 24 include:

Boston: 59.9° Tied for 31st warmest
New York City: 65.8° Tied for 8th warmest
Washington, DC: 71.6° 2nd warmest

The July 1, 1876 edition of <I>Harper’s</I> referred to June as “our Summer Queen” in a poem entitled “June And Her Roses.” Borrowing language from that poem, the question arises as to what the weather will bring when “Sunny-eyed June” awakens and whether the “Summer Queen” will bring a true taste of summer.

Based on a review of the evolution of past synoptic patterns similar to the current one and the latest computer guidance and ensemble data, it appears that June will bring generally warmer than normal readings from Washington, DC to Boston even as the month starts off with near normal temperatures. Rainfall should come out fairly close to normal.

Given the preponderance of analogs, one might reasonably expect the following:

• At least one bout of high heat, in which temperatures reach the middle and upper 90s throughout the region. This period will most likely occur during the June 20-30 timeframe.
• Monthly maximum temperatures should top out from 95° to 99° from Washington, DC to Boston.
• Boston will likely see 4 or more days with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90°; New York City and Washington, DC will likely see 6 or more such days.
• The lowest temperature will probably reach the lower 50s in Boston and New York City, but probably not fall below 56° in Washington, DC.

<b>Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region: </b>

<b>June 1-7:</b> Near normal temperatures; Below normal to near normal precipitation.
<b>June 8-14:</b> Near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.
<b>June 15-21:</b> Normal to above normal temperatures; Normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>June 22-30:</b> Above normal to possibly much above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.

<b>All-Time Extreme Temperatures for May:</b>

<b>Boston:</b> Highest: 100°, June 6, 1925 and June 26, 1952; Lowest: 41°, June 1, 1945
<b>New York City:</b> Highest: 101°, June 27, 1966 and June 29, 1934; 44°, June 1, 1945
<b>Washington, DC:</b> 102°, June 9, 1874; 43°, June 2, 1897

All said, look for above normal monthly readings throughout this region. Precipitation should be near normal.

In conclusion, the “Summer Queen” will likely bring abundant 90° days and some high heat during June.

[Stormsfury]

Well, pretty much, Don, spring sprung only briefly in South Carolina before turning into summer, quite early this year ... and I don't see much of a break for the region this week ...

In fact, later this week ... MAV guidance already is suggesting 96º WED-FRI across CHS ... basically with dry grounds (CHS hasn't seen measurable rain since May 3rd, although scattered thunderstorms have occurred just north and further inland from the CHS WFO), westerly component pinning the sea breeze along the coast, and the ridging well established both aloft and at the SFC, promises to bring mid-upper 90's (possibly 100º in the favored heat areas in South Carolina - Midlands (CAE, in particular) by the end of the week ... I know the record for May in CHS is 99º ... and we might make a run at it ...

[donsutherland1]

CHS has been quite warm (73.3° mean through yesterday) and the month's worst heat appears imminent, as you noted.

[Stephanie]

So far this year for Philadelphia, it has been the second hottest May on record. I guess it's evening out last year's below normal May temps.

It's been warm, but only yesterday and today were really "hot". Thank goodness the humidity hasn't really kicked in yet, though we finally broke down yesterday and turned the AC on for the first time.

[weatherlover427]

How about concentrating on the Southwest for a change, instead of those cities?

[azsnowman]

Well......we've been WAAAAAYYYYY below normal here in the White Mountains, no sign of summer this week or next.....hey, that's O'TAY by ME!

Dennis

[CaptinCrunch]

All I can say is TEXAS, where yesterday we had temps out west form Midland to Wichita Falls anywhere from 95 to 101, and later this week and weekend we will see the lower 90's here in the D/FW area.

[donsutherland1]

Joshua21Young,

Unfortunately, I don't have anything close to the data pertaining to the Southwest that I have for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. Otherwise, I would provide more detail pertaining to that region.

[donsutherland1]

CaptinCrunch,

I expect that June will see near to somewhat above normal temperatures where you live. Overall, it looks like a hot summer in Texas.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

At least for the next few weeks, you should experience relief from the early taste of heat. After mid-month, though, it does look like the heat will begin to return.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

If one also incorporates the old data from Philadelphia, May 2004 is on track to become the third warmest:

1826 72.0°
1991 70.8°
<b>2004 69.5°</b>
1880 69.0°
1889 68.1°

2004 data is through May 26.

What is even more remarkable about the 1826 mean temperature is that it was achieved at a time when the heat island effect was far less prominent than it is today. The normal mean temperature for June was 62.7° at the time vs. 63.5° today.

[donsutherland1]

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following has occurred:

Boston:
June 1-7: Temperature 5.9° below normal; 1.00" precipitation
June 8-14: Temperature 0.4° above normal; 0.13" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 49° 6/1,2; Highest Temperature: 93°, 6/9

New York City:
June 1-7: Temperature 3.2° below normal; 0.37" precipitation
June 8-14: Temperature 2.2° above normal; 0.01" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 56° 6/1,6; Highest Temperature: 91°, 6/9

Washington, DC:
June 1-7: Temperature 2.9° below normal; 1.24" precipitation
June 8-14: Temperature 0.0° above normal; 0.95" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 57° 6/6; Highest Temperature: 92°, 6/9

So far, Boston and New York City have seen one day on which the mercury climbed to 90° or above. Washington, DC has seen two such days.

Through June 14, Philadelphia has seen the monthly temperature average 68.8°. That is 0.4° below the mean temperature for May.
One should bear in mind that Philadelphia has never seen June come out cooler than May. The closest such occurrence was June 1903 on which the temperature averaged just 0.2° above that for May.

Looking at the historical record for Philadelphia that goes back to 1825, one can expect that the monthly mean temperature will likely finish no lower than 71.0°. Thus, history suggests a warmer second half of the month.

At this point in time, the models have not reached any kind of consensus for a prolonged stretch of much above normal readings for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, they don't suggest that the current 68.8° mean temperature will be sustained either.

In addition, there is some teleconnective support for warmer, and perhaps much warmer, readings for at least a time during the closing five days of the month.

Overall, if the monthly forecast is to verify, particularly with respect to the heat at the end of the month, one will need to see some big changes in the computer modeling. So far, the models are remaining stubbornly against such heat.

Who will win the battle between the models and analogs?

Stay tuned.

[elw]

Excellent Analysis! The 0z 6/14 GFS ensembles seem to be hinting at the development of a rex-blocking pattern (block near the Pole, and trough over central and Eastern North America) lasting through the 21st. This would probably keep the height Field down over the eastern part of the country. And, It seems to fit in well (teleconnection wise) with the trough in western Europe that the ensembles have at the same time.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

Oh, and I would take the analogs over the modeling

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following has occurred:

Boston:
June 1-7: Temperature 5.9° below normal; 1.00" precipitation
June 8-14: Temperature 0.4° above normal; 0.13" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 49° 6/1,2; Highest Temperature: 93°, 6/9

New York City:
June 1-7: Temperature 3.2° below normal; 0.37" precipitation
June 8-14: Temperature 2.2° above normal; 0.01" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 56° 6/1,6; Highest Temperature: 91°, 6/9

Washington, DC:
June 1-7: Temperature 2.9° below normal; 1.24" precipitation
June 8-14: Temperature 0.0° above normal; 0.95" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 57° 6/6; Highest Temperature: 92°, 6/9

So far, Boston and New York City have seen one day on which the mercury climbed to 90° or above. Washington, DC has seen two such days.

Through June 14, Philadelphia has seen the monthly temperature average 68.8°. That is 0.4° below the mean temperature for May.
One should bear in mind that Philadelphia has never seen June come out cooler than May. The closest such occurrence was June 1903 on which the temperature averaged just 0.2° above that for May.

Looking at the historical record for Philadelphia that goes back to 1825, one can expect that the monthly mean temperature will likely finish no lower than 71.0°. Thus, history suggests a warmer second half of the month.

At this point in time, the models have not reached any kind of consensus for a prolonged stretch of much above normal readings for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, they don't suggest that the current 68.8° mean temperature will be sustained either.

In addition, there is some teleconnective support for warmer, and perhaps much warmer, readings for at least a time during the closing five days of the month.

Overall, if the monthly forecast is to verify, particularly with respect to the heat at the end of the month, one will need to see some big changes in the computer modeling. So far, the models are remaining stubbornly against such heat.

Who will win the battle between the models and analogs?

Stay tuned.

[donsutherland1]

June 2004--Second half and quick monthly wrap-up

Overall, for the month, the region saw rainfall that came out somewhat above normal across the Mid-Atlantic region and somewhat below normal to below normal in New England. With the exception of New York City (+0.1°) temperatures generally averaged somewhat below normal to below normal.

The forecast proved too warm. Moreover, consistent with its proving too warm, there were also difficulties with respect to anticipated monthly highlights:

• Boston had one 90° reading, while 4 or more had been expected. New York City had one such reading and Washington, DC had three such readings; 6 had been anticipated in each of these cities.
• There was no outbreak of high heat during the June 20-30 period.
• Highest monthly temperatures came out in the lower 90s vs. the anticipated middle and upper 90s.

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following occurred during the June 15-30 period:

<b>Boston:</b>
June 15-21: Temperature 0.9° above normal; 0.10" precipitation
June 22-30: Temperature 1.7° below normal; 0.80" precipitation


<b>New York City:</b>
June 15-21: Temperature 3.5° above normal; 0.99" precipitation
June 22-30: Temperature 1.6° below normal; 1.65" precipitation

<b>Washington, DC:</b>
June 15-21: Temperature 1.5° above normal; 0.79" precipitation
June 22-30: Temperature 2.3° below normal; 1.62" precipitation

<b>Monthly Totals:</b>

<b>Boston:</b>
Temperature: 2.1° below normal
Precipitation: 1.93"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 93°, June 9
Lowest Temperature: 49°, June 1, 2

<b>New York City:</b>
Temperature: 0.1° above normal
Precipitation: 3.02"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 91°, June 9
Lowest Temperature: 56°, June 1

<b>Washington, DC:</b>
Temperature: 1.1° below normal
Precipitation: 4.60"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 92°, June 9, 17
Lowest Temperature: 57°, June 6

All in all, this was not a good forecast.