The HEAT IS ON

[Josephine96]

Warmest day of the early season for me here in sunny and dry Central Florida today.

It is after 5pm.. and the temp. at the local weather station is 97 DEGREES.

This is definitely our warmest day so far this season.. I almost wonder how many 100 plus degree days we're going to have.

I like the heat.. but we NEED SOME RAIN!

[Josephine96]

and the temp. just SHOT BACK UP TO 96 DEGREES! definitely our warmest day of the season so far, and summer is not even officially here yet.

[PTrackerLA]

You sure are baking down there in Florida! Today was warm but it only reached 88 degrees. We have yet to hit 90 here possibly because of all the rain we had earlier this month.

[Josephine96]

Ptracker.. I had a separate thread with a lot of the temps. from the local stations. Some of them cleared 100 today!

[Stormsfury]

You sure are baking down there in Florida! Today was warm but it only reached 88 degrees. We have yet to hit 90 here possibly because of all the rain we had earlier this month.

That's part of it ... plus the saturated grounds (and air for that matter) doesn't warm quite so readily as dry air and even worse, dry ground ... also, our flow is coming almost due WEST running across a long stretch of dry ground and downsloping which only heats up more ...

Down in Louisiana, I've noticed the flow is more southerly, which is doing two things ... 1) the humidity isn't burning off (and remaining high) and 2) seabreeze front moving inland rather rapidly giving the area a marine influence (which thusly doesn't tend to get too hot) ...

[Josephine96]

Made it up to 95 here today.. So at least it cooled off a degree or 2 lol

[USAwx1]

This afternoon's 18z run of the ETA still keeps 850H temps in the 18-20 DEG C category for tomorrow afternoon,



and low level thicknesses pretty high in the 1425-1430 M range over the state tomorrow afternoon between 18z and 21z. So under full sun w/ 500H heights > 588 DM, probably going to see another day with widespread low and mid 90s.



it is over lower SC, and SE GA, away from the coast that will bake tomorrow afternoon, under the LLVL thickness max w/ aid from the westerly flow and downsloping wind component along the lee side of the apps and already parched ground. Only problem may be clouds streaming in later on courtesy of upstream convection, which COULD put a lid on things.

[Stormsfury]

A couple of things of interest on the ETA are the upper disturbance swinging in from the Southwest, and a small discrete s/w over NC may be a factor tomorrow afternoon for portions of the Carolinas ...

1) IF sufficient moisture can return into the region ...
2) IF the strong subsidence and capping can be broken down enough
3) IF previous convection doesn't suppress maximum insolation with convective cloud debris ...

[Rainband]

20-30% chance of showers/storms the middle of next week. It's a start

[USAwx1]

even with lift being generated over the region by the s/w kicking out of Arkanas at 18z, convective temps per 18z ETA sounding at KCHS valid at 21z are still pretty high, and not reached, with instability marginal at best (Total totals in the mid 40s, mid level lapse rates 5.5-6.0 DEG C/km, and SB CAPE only running around 1500-1600 J/kg, and borderline deep layer vertical shear). LCL's and LFC's are elevated as well, above 875mb.

At CAE its another story. Convective temps are only in the low 90s, instability (w/ weak but nonetheless Negative LI and SI values ) is somewhat better although SB CAPES at CAE at 21z are actually lower than they are at KCHS and BRN shear of 80 m/s could help with maintaining convection further west

[USAwx1]

the sounding at CAE also revealed INC moisture mainly between 950 and 650mb as evidenced by lowering Dewpoint depressions, although the boundary layer remians pretty dry with RH's < 50%

for better convective efficiency, and more importantly when looking for downburst and DMG wind potential you would want to see the reverse with dry air intruding around 700mb overtop of a moist boundary layer.

[Stormsfury]

the sounding at CAE also revealed INC moisture mainly above 950 and 650mb as evidenced by lowering Dewpoint depressions, although the boundary layer remians pretty dry with RH's < 50%

Which pretty yields only about a 20% chance of convection, at BEST... but what, if any, development does occur ... will likely be severe, with frequent to continual lightning, and drier air at the mid-levels conducive for damaging microbursts with pulse activity.

SF

[USAwx1]

the sounding at CAE also revealed INC moisture mainly above 950 and 650mb as evidenced by lowering Dewpoint depressions, although the boundary layer remians pretty dry with RH's < 50%

Which pretty yields only about a 20% chance of convection, at BEST... but what, if any, development does occur ... will likely be severe, with frequent to continual lightning, and drier air at the mid-levels conducive for damaging microbursts with pulse activity.

SF

ummm, well thats the problem, the best moisture is located inb the mid levels w/ dry air closer to the boundary layer per the CAE sounding. The more moisture in the mid levels, the better the potential for heavy rainfall, which you would see manifested in higher K indices, but for convective instability, one would want to see dry air overtop of a moist boundary layer, (which albeit is not as great for heavy rianfall, although heavy raifall CAN still occur given abundant LLVL moisture) but a MUCH better CI signal --- favoring downbursts and wind damage.

I dont forsee the potential for sevrere tomorrow with whatever might develop in response to lift generated by that s/w.

[Dan]

A couple of things of interest on the ETA are the upper disturbance swinging in from the Southwest, and a small discrete s/w over NC may be a factor tomorrow afternoon for portions of the Carolinas ...

1) IF sufficient moisture can return into the region ...
2) IF the strong subsidence and capping can be broken down enough
3) IF previous convection doesn't suppress maximum insolation with convective cloud debris ...

By looking at the models and current trends, I feel like moisture will be sufficient enough for some weather. I also believe high and mid level debris will be only a small limiting factor. Jet stream winds are fast enough along with late may sun angle to erode the clouds. I just hope the short wave is strong enough to break the cap.

Since Charleston and Columbia has been mentioned, what does it look like for GSP and areas up towards the mountains? What's your take, SF?

[USAwx1]

By looking at the models and current trends, I feel like moisture will be sufficient enough for some weather. I also believe high and mid level debris will be only a small limiting factor. Jet stream winds are fast enough along with late may sun angle to erode the clouds. I just hope the short wave is strong enough to break the cap.

Since Charleston and Columbia has been mentioned, what does it look like for GSP and areas up towards the mountains? What's your take, SF?

I agree with you when it comes to the cloud debrits, a 70 KT 500H speed maximum will be present over N SC, and SRN NC, during the late afternoon hours, which yes would help tremendously, and upper level divergence in the left front quad of an 85 KT 300H jet max approaching from the west over NC during the late afternoon should help them also in relationship to firing off convection.

As far as GSP is concerned, it looks MUCH better, as CT's are lower and by late in the afternoon (per the 18z ETA) are reached. Instability isnt that great though, Weak negative LI and SI values with BLYR CAPE less than 1000 J/kg. still enough to get convection going, though probably nothing severe w/ weak mid level lapse rates, and limited overall instability.

[Stormsfury]

By looking at the models and current trends, I feel like moisture will be sufficient enough for some weather. I also believe high and mid level debris will be only a small limiting factor. Jet stream winds are fast enough along with late may sun angle to erode the clouds. I just hope the short wave is strong enough to break the cap.

Since Charleston and Columbia has been mentioned, what does it look like for GSP and areas up towards the mountains? What's your take, SF?

Western NC looks better for chances of convection as a s/w enters the region with the upper low currently in the SW ejecting ENE.. a little better moisture to work with, good upper divergence indicated with the ETA/GFS (with a jet maxima somewhere around the OV), and roughly 40 kt LLJ being indicated ... I believe the mid-levels should begin to cool down somewhat which may allow for some activity late, but tomorrow looking potentially more active.

[Stormsfury]

ummm, well thats the problem, the best moisture is located inb the mid levels w/ dry air closer to the boundary layer per the CAE sounding. The more moisture in the mid levels, the better the potential for heavy rainfall, which you would see manifested in higher K indices, but for convective instability, one would want to see dry air overtop of a moist boundary layer, (which albeit is not as great for heavy rianfall, although heavy raifall CAN still occur given abundant LLVL moisture) but a MUCH better CI signal --- favoring downbursts and wind damage.

I dont forsee the potential for sevrere tomorrow with whatever might develop in response to lift generated by that s/w

Downslope component ... forgot about that ... setup is much better up in Western NC. I don't foresee a widespread outbreak either, but I can't exactly rule out a couple of severe cells in NC...

SF

[USAwx1]

The GSP sounding at 21z tomorrow also showed MUCH bettrer boundary layer and mid level moisture with RH's > 75%, helping to elevate K indices into the lower 30s and support a better POTENTIAL for heavy rainfall.

BTW, nice catch on the LLJ, SF. I didnt have a chance to check out BUFKIT soundings from across the region yet so it slipped me.

[USAwx1]

ummm, well thats the problem, the best moisture is located inb the mid levels w/ dry air closer to the boundary layer per the CAE sounding. The more moisture in the mid levels, the better the potential for heavy rainfall, which you would see manifested in higher K indices, but for convective instability, one would want to see dry air overtop of a moist boundary layer, (which albeit is not as great for heavy rianfall, although heavy raifall CAN still occur given abundant LLVL moisture) but a MUCH better CI signal --- favoring downbursts and wind damage.

I dont forsee the potential for sevrere tomorrow with whatever might develop in response to lift generated by that s/w

Downslope component ... forgot about that ... setup is much better up in Western NC. I don't foresee a widespread outbreak either, but I can't exactly rule out a couple of severe cells in NC...

SF

Yes, In NC, there is a chance--- which should be enhanced or helped along somewhat by the upper level divergence, but with limited instability, questions regarding the erosion of the CAP over the region, and weak Mid level Lapse rates, its unlikely that anything organized or widespread SVR would occur.

[PTrackerLA]

According to weathebug, we finally hit 90 today for the first time this year. It was a hot one but the southerly breezes take some of the bite out of it.