Severe wx threat today

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good Monday, hopefully it ain't too manic where you are. I just love that manic monday tune from the Bangles being the 80s music geek I am. Anyway severe weather is most definitely a big problem we're going to have to deal with over the next few days, but especially today across the upper Mississippi Valley area.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon across the arrowhead of Minnesota and extending southwestward through most of south central Minnesota and into northern Iowa and eastern South Dakota. A cold front will approach the region this afternoon. This combined with a jet stream disturbance and great instability due to daytime heating will enhance the threat of severe weather. These storms will likely produce very large hail, and damaging winds. However with west wind aloft and south wind at the surface, a 90 degree turning of the winds with height will maximize the tornado potential today with these storms, especially across north central Minnesota. There could be a significant tornado or two with these storms later today into this evening.
More updates will be given on these storms throughout the afternoon.

Further south, the remnants of the MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX, which was over north Texas continues to rain itself out over southern Oklahoma. This MCV produced isolated severe wx and 6-8 inches of rain across north Texas including the DFW area. Parts of Interstate 35 north of Dallas had to be shut down due to flooding last night. This MCV could reignite later this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and possibly into north Texas again. Areas from OKC to DFW need to keep an eye on this possibility.

Looking ahead to tomorrow reveals a threat of severe wetaher from the upper Mississippi Valley through the western Great Lakes area. The main threat tomorrow will ba hail and damaging winds.

Once again as stated yesterday, midweek will reveals more pulse type aftrnoon and evening thunderstorms from the central Plains eastward towards the eastern seaboard. Not everyone will see the rain and storms as they will be more hit and miss type. However isolated severe is not impossible with old thunderstorm outflow boundaries combined with daytime heating and humidity and great instability in place. However the biggest severe weather threat Wednesday and Thursday appears to be in the northeast and middle atlantic area as a cold front punches on through the area.

More updates on today's severe wx as the day progresses.

Jim