Southeast, Texas and Louisiana gully washer....observations

[Johnny]

I decided to start a new thread on the rains in Southeast, Texas and Louisiana since the other one is pretty long. I figured we could post our observations here on what is going on in the areas we live in. Forecast discussions are welcome also.

I work off of West Hardy road on the North side of Houston and everything is quiet for the time being. Greens Bayou was on the rise and if this area gets pounded again then it could come on out of its banks. It doesn't take much for Greens Bayou to overspill. We have been flooded out twice in the past 2 1/2 years.

It looks like we will have more storms converge over the area shortly. We got the coming in from the Northeast and the Southwest.



http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/weather/doppler.html

[opera ghost]

Quiet in the Heights- we've gottten a break in the clouds and it's actully sunny for the time being. The minor flooding has abated completly.

If we get a couple more hours of relief we'll probably be able to avoid flooding that would strand me here.

[Johnny]

Per radar trends it looks like the convection that was coming in from the West is falling apart. I'm sure that was due to the earliar storms in the area. It looks like we will be in a break until the next round hits.

[vbhoutex]

It rained most of the morning where I am between the H in Houston and the Beltway on the straight line that Houstonians know as Westheimer. Weatherbug stations in the are recorded 3/4-1" of rain for that time. It is still cloudy and drizzly here, but not like it was this morning. Hopefully, we well get a long break, though I am not holding my breath.

[Johnny]

The Houston Metroplex is experiencing a break but as usual, their is something right on the heels of the one that has cleared the area. If you look out towards Austin, lots of showers and thunderstorms are firing up moving our way as far as I can tell.


http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/weather/dop ... mated.html

[GalvestonDuck]

More images from Galveston







This is the Home Depot...and behind it.

[KatDaddy]

Wow this is become a very serious situation.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG SURPISES IN THE OFFING THIS FORECAST PACKAGE - WE ARE GOING
TO SEE SOME RAIN. THE CWA LARGELY CLEAR OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS THIS
AFTN AS MOST OF THE STORMS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY.
SOME LIGHT/MODERATE RAINS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR NERN ZONES BUT THEY ARE NOT CAUSING THAT MUCH CONCERN
ATTM. SFC ANALYSES INDICATING THAT A SFC LOW MAY BE TRYING TO FORM
OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST. THIS MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW
AS THIS COULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY INLAND AS THE NEXT STRONG
S/W MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORRW. WITH THIS FEAT-
URE ACTING AS A FOCUS AND THE GROUNDS OVER MOST OF SE TX SATURATED
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FLOOD SITUATION LATER
TONIGHT/TOMORROW SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY. FURTHER TO THE WEST...
MORE KINKS IN THE MACHINERY ARE LOOMING. STRONG STORMS (SPURRED BY
AFTN HEATING) DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY THROW A FEW MORE
BOUNDARIES THIS WAY. FFA WILL REMAIN UP AND ABOUT THROUGH TOMORROW
6 PM NEEDLESS TO SAY. BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THE FFA
WILL BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AS PROGS CONTINUE WITH THIS SAME (AND
NOW QUITE FAMILIAR) WX PATTERN - UPPER TROFFINESS LINGERING AS PWS
HOVER AT/ABOVE 2" AND ADDITIONAL S/WS MAKE TRACK ACROSS THE STATE.
GUIDANCE HINTING THAT WE COULD MAYBE START TO SEE SOME DRYING LATE
MONDAY (PWS ACTUALLY PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 2"!) BUT THE UPPER TROF
LOOKS TO HANG ON JUST A BIT LONGER. EXTENDED GFS DOING A FLIP FLOP
FOR NEXT WEEKEND (AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF APPEARS TO DEEPEN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS) BUT ECMWF PAINTING A MORE SERENE PICTURE WITH FLATTISH
UPPER RIDGE BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE. 41/47
&&

[vbhoutex]

Gee KatDaddy, you bring such good news!!!!!!

Unfortunately radar is beginning to verify the AFD too. I can see the start of the Low and the impulses coming in from the West. SE TX residents need to be sure they have their boats and oars ready!!!

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...TODAYS THEME SONGS TO DESCRIBE "YELLOW SUBMARINE" AND
"RAIN RAIN GO AWAY". LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PUSHED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE THE RESULT
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY SEE ONE FOR TOMORROW. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LOOKING TO SEE MORE RIVER
LOCATIONS MOVING INTO FLOOD.

THE OUTLOOK SHOWS A TENDENCY TOWARDS THINGS DRYING OUT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

[GalvestonDuck]

Gee KatDaddy, you bring such good news!!!!!!

Unfortunately radar is beginning to verify the AFD too. I can see the start of the Low and the impulses coming in from the West. SE TX residents need to be sure they have their boats and oars ready!!!

Got my oars ready -- they're webbed.

Aren't you guys jealous?

[Johnny]

I e-mailed Frank Billingsley about the flooding potential and he said what the NWS is now saying. This has the potential to be a very dangerous flooding situation. I have already been flooded here at the office twice. I just got through putting alot of things up high and I will pray that I will come into a dry office Monday. Lots of storms firing up out West like VBHOUTEX pointed out. This doesn't look good at all.

[tomboudreau]

I hope you guys down there don't get any tropical storm or hurricane action if anything does develop. Or else, you might all just float away, and we don't want that to happen.

[crazy4disney]

It doesn't take much to float my little flyweight Echo... I think I'll stay in this weekend. We really are lucky, considering the time of year, that nothing tropical has been thrown in this mix!

GD, those are some amazing pictures... WOW


-gina-

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
243 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
A sustained lift will be found once again across Louisiana and
southeast Texas. A cool Missouri HIGH will build south; sending a
continental surge south into northern Louisiana. Meanwhile, a LOW
across south Texas will deepen; sending a marine surge north toward
the Louisiana coast. The meeting of these two surges will squeeze
(and lift) the conditionally unstable air mass across the forecast
area. The rains will return. A "Flood Watch" will remain in effect.

Also, the rains will be more vigorous and long-lived across southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana. Group waves emanating out of old
Mexico will bring divergence across the aforementioned area.

.DISCUSSION...
Cloudy skies and rain-cooled air will keep the afternoon temperatures
unseasonably cool; the afternoon maximums will be running about 10
Fahrenheit degrees below normal.

[KatDaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE
DAY. THE GFS AND ETA WERE SIMILAR FOR TODAY EXCEPT FOR QPF AND PW/S.
THE GFS WAS ABOUT 2 INCHES GREATER IN QPF AND 1/2 INCH GREATER IN PW.
ACTUALLY LIKE A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS...EVEN WITH THE GFS CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...AND WILL UTILIZE THE GFS FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
RATHER OMINOUS IS THE FACT THAT HPC PUT ALL OF SE TX UNDER AN AREA FOR
RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE 24-HOUR
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SE TX WAS ON THE LOWER EAST AND BUSINESS SIDE
OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN THAT AT 00Z WAS SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ETA DO NOT BREAK THE PATTERN
DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF DOES TREND AWAY FROM
THE GFS IN TRYING TO CHANGE THE PATTERN. OVER THE UPPER TX COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS A WEAKENING CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN FROM
500 TO 200 MB AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY CENTER
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AT THE BIG BEND. DURING THE DAY A WEAK LOW
SHOULD FORM AT 500 MB AS THE VORTICITY CENTER MOVES TOWARD NE TX. AM
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE 5 TO 6 INCHES BY 00Z...
WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z. THE ETA GIVES WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LIKELY
TURN OUT TO BE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED (OR
ISOLATED) AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. NOT A PRETTY PICTURE CONSIDERING
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

[donsutherland1]

GalvestonDuck,

Thanks for the photos. Hopefully, the rain-stricken city will begin to dry out after this weekend and preferably a little sooner.

Yesterday Galveston saw 5.14" of rain (GLS) while Galveston Coast Guard Station saw an incredible 6.00". Houston had mere sprinkles by comparison with "just" 0.75".

Unfortunately, more substantial rainfall looks likely today.

[vbhoutex]

Well the rains continue, just in different areas of SE TX. Major rain going on right now about 70 miles North of Houston Metro with flood warnings for several areas.

Yesterday I got 0.30" at my house, the lowest daily total all week. That 0.30" left standing water in my yard! That is how saturated things are. Basically, more is expected to develop to our SW and move over metro Houston this afternoon. The problem is that even though with less rain than expected yesterday, if we get a 1/2" we will probably flood due to the saturation. That is not from me, but from several of the local mets.

[stormcloud]

What has me a bit concerned are the forecast models showing another trof/cut-off low developing over Texas the July 4th weekend. It's so much fun eating Bar-B-Q in the rain!

[southerngale]

Yesterday afternoon we got a lot of rain in a short period of time. There was flash flooding in and around Beaumont. Torrential rains that lasted a good while. This was the heaviest I'd seen since we started our week long routine of flood watches.

stormcloud...are the forecast models predicting that low to hang around for long? The rivers here are already well above flood stage.

[GalvestonDuck]

Kelly, there's another line moving in from the west. Ya ready for it?