August 2004: Warmth Back; Little ‘Burthensome Heat’ for N.E.

[donsutherland1]

With the exception of the Washington, DC area, cities including New York City, Providence, and Boston have been enjoying a cooler-than-normal July. No high heat has burned any of the region and July 2004 at Central Park has a shot at achieving the lowest ever maximum temperature for the month (courtesy of Unclew’s research: July 1888, 1889 and 2000 had a monthly maximum temperature of 89°), though the ECMWF may be trying to change this in its recent runs. All said, the July outlook fared poorly for much of the region. A more detailed discussion of the July forecast and its gory postmortem will be provided once all the results are in.

On August 4, 1777, John Adams wrote to his wife Abigail and described the weather in Philadelphia as follows: The hot weather grows burthensome.

Based on a review of the evolution of past synoptic patterns similar to the current one and the latest computer guidance and ensemble data, it appears that August will see a return of more summerlike warmth to the Washington, DC-Boston region. A strong development in favor of such an outcome is the recent substantial depletion of the pool of anomalously cool water that has lingered off the New England coast for much of the spring and into the middle of July.

However, it does not appear that perhaps outside of Washington, DC one will need to worry about poet Kathleen Sutton’s description of a heat wave where she wrote:

Dawn lifts a brazen head above the hill,
Its scorching tongue licking the listless trees
And darting like thin flame into the still
Slumbering valley.

All said, it appears that August will see somewhat above normal temperatures but nothing resembling extremes. Rainfall should be near to somewhat above normal, as well. The heaviest rainfall should occur in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Given the preponderance of analogs, one might reasonably expect the following:

• Possibly no heat waves (3 consecutive days of 90° or above heat) except in Washington, DC
• Boston and New York City will likely see 3 or more days with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90°; Washington, DC will likely see 6 or more such days.
• No 100° heat throughout the region.
• Boston will likely see the coolest temperature fall into the middle or upper 50s. NYC and Washington, DC will probably see lower 60s.
• The monthly mean temperature for Boston will likely come out under 73°.

One quick tidbit for New Englanders: If Boston sees August 2004 come out with a mean temperature at or above 72.5° with rainfall of 6” or more, it could be a hint that some of the snowier analogs might be gaining an upper-hand on the less snowy ones.

Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region:

August 1-7: Near normal temperatures despite a possible warm start; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
August 8-14: Normal to above normal temperatures with the warmth being focused mainly on the Mid-Atlantic region; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
August 15-21: Near normal to above normal temperatures with the warmth again being focused on the Mid-Atlantic region; Below normal precipitation.
August 22-28: Above normal temperatures; Below normal to near normal precipitation.
August 29-31:Near normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation except above normal across the Mid-Atlantic region

All-Time Extreme Temperatures for August:

Boston: Highest: 102°, August 2, 1975; Lowest: 46°, August 25, 1940
New York City: Highest: 104°, August 7, 1918; 50° August 27-28, 1885, August 29, 1986, August 30, 1965, and August 31, 1976
Washington, DC: 106°, August 6, 1918; 49°, August 29, 1986 and August 31, 1934

All said, look for somewhat above normal monthly readings and near normal to somewhat above normal rainfall.

[Stephanie]

John Adams would've been right in any other year except for this one. It has been a very ENJOYABLE summer temperature wise so far.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

While I expect August to be warmer than July and probably somewhat above normal in temperatures, I don't expect it to turn out to be a hot month. All in all, the summer is quite pleasant.

[donsutherland1]

Through July 25, the June-July period has averaged 74.0° in Philadelphia. However, since 1970 there have been a number of years which saw similar or cooler readings during this period:

Year.........June-July Mean Temp.
1972.........72.9°
1974.........73.6°
1977.........73.2°
1979.........72.6°
1982.........72.8°
1984.........73.5°
1985.........72.1°
1996.........73.8°
2000.........73.3°
2004.........74.0°

For what it's worth, June-July 1836 was the coldest such period with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The coldest such June-July period since modern recordkeeping began was 1903 with a mean temperature of 71.1°.