*shiver* it's going to be a rough day for TX. Keep an eye to the sky and take along a shovel and umbrella,,, heheheh *visualizing Ticka digging a quick tunnel to escape dorthy's fate*.....
Tx Shivers
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- Garnetcat5
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Tx Shivers
Hello All,
*shiver* it's going to be a rough day for TX. Keep an eye to the sky and take along a shovel and umbrella,,, heheheh *visualizing Ticka digging a quick tunnel to escape dorthy's fate*.....
*shiver* it's going to be a rough day for TX. Keep an eye to the sky and take along a shovel and umbrella,,, heheheh *visualizing Ticka digging a quick tunnel to escape dorthy's fate*.....
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- Garnetcat5
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- mf_dolphin
- Category 5

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- TexasStooge
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- PTrackerLA
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Looks like it might get rough in southeast texas and louisiana late tonight.
NWS Houston says possiblilty of bow echo moving through.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003
CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE REGION. THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND EXPAND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS FCST PW'S TO REACH 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SE TX
WILL LIE IN THE LFQ OF AN APPROACHING 120 KNOT JET MAX OVERNIGHT AS
THE DRY LINE PUSHES EAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE DRYLINE
WILL GET HERE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...FEEL DRYLINE WILL GET
PRETTY CLOSE. THINK A NOCTURNAL BOW ECHO EVENT MAY BE IN THE CARDS
OVERNIGHT AS A LINEAR MCS RACES EAST. WILL KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN THE ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH PW'S BUT
THINK TRAINING ECHOS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING IS LOW. AM CARRYING HIGH POPS
THURSDAY MORNING BUT FEEL PRECIP WILL END AREA WIDE BY 15Z. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND THE AREA
REMAINING RAIN FREE. CURRENT FCST IS CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MON-TUE. ALTHO CURRENT MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH AS EARLIER
RUNS...THERE IS A WEAKNESS AT 50H AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
WILL ISSUE A NEW HWO FOR TONIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
SCA FOR TONIGHT DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT. WIND FIELD RELAXES QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY AND WIND FIELDS LOOK RATHER VARIABLE.
NWS Houston says possiblilty of bow echo moving through.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003
CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE REGION. THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND EXPAND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS FCST PW'S TO REACH 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SE TX
WILL LIE IN THE LFQ OF AN APPROACHING 120 KNOT JET MAX OVERNIGHT AS
THE DRY LINE PUSHES EAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE DRYLINE
WILL GET HERE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...FEEL DRYLINE WILL GET
PRETTY CLOSE. THINK A NOCTURNAL BOW ECHO EVENT MAY BE IN THE CARDS
OVERNIGHT AS A LINEAR MCS RACES EAST. WILL KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN THE ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH PW'S BUT
THINK TRAINING ECHOS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING IS LOW. AM CARRYING HIGH POPS
THURSDAY MORNING BUT FEEL PRECIP WILL END AREA WIDE BY 15Z. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND THE AREA
REMAINING RAIN FREE. CURRENT FCST IS CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MON-TUE. ALTHO CURRENT MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH AS EARLIER
RUNS...THERE IS A WEAKNESS AT 50H AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
WILL ISSUE A NEW HWO FOR TONIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
SCA FOR TONIGHT DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT. WIND FIELD RELAXES QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY AND WIND FIELDS LOOK RATHER VARIABLE.
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- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive

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Current radar shows a dissapating bow echo moving E from the DFW area, but nothing for SE TX. That is not to say it can't/won't happen, but it sure appears less likely than it did earlier when the dry line was almost solid with heavy storms. The southern portion of that line has now disapated. If any happens in the Houston area I would not expect it till sometime near sunrise or later. Since the progs show the weather clearing this area by 10 am I see it as much less likely at this time.
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- southerngale
- Retired Staff

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- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
- southerngale
- Retired Staff

- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Well, since I posted that last message a few minutes ago I checked radar and there is a squall line just starting to develop and head this general direction. Still several hours away though.
Keep an eye in the sky my Houston area friends...it looks to be developing pretty rapidly and may get ugly if the forecast holds up.
Keep an eye in the sky my Houston area friends...it looks to be developing pretty rapidly and may get ugly if the forecast holds up.
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- Garnetcat5
- Tropical Storm

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- Location: Richmond, Tx
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- southerngale
- Retired Staff

- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
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