KPIT MENTIONS "FLAKES" IN AFD

[meso_jr]

Probably won't amount to much, but it's still wonderful to see. I can't believe fall came so quickly!


FXUS61 KPBZ 010717
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2004

.AVIATION
VFR XCP FOR MRNG FOG. LOWER CLDS ARRIVE AFT 04 OR 06Z TUE.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FIRST CF MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY TOMORROW.
GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH ONSET OF PCPN AND SPEED OF FRONT.
ETA HAS ALSO CONTINUED ITS TREND OF SLOWLY THINGS DOWN. TRIED TO
FIND A HAPPY MEDIUM AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...ALTHOUGH LEANING TOWARD
ETA TIMING MAY WORK AS AIR IS VERY DRY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST EARLY SAT MORNING AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY DIRECTLY AHEAD OF
FRONT...
HOWEVER TDS REMAIN LOW AND THERE WILL BE LIMITED TO NO SUNSHINE.
WENT WITH MENTION OF CHC FOR TRW IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS
SIMILAR IN MOVING FRONT QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LEAVING POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS. THIS WOULD BE CONNECTED WITH 50H TROUGH DIGGING IN AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR RAPIDLY FILLS IN BEHIND FRONT AS
WELL AS SUBSIDENCE WITH STRONG MIDWEST SFC HIGH. SAT NIGHT WILL BE
THE BEGINNING OF A FALL LIKE STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
COOL TEMPS. STRONGER CF MOVES THROUGH LATER MONDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE
WITH FRONT...BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPS. IF LAKE EFFECT PCPN CAN BE
GENERATED MON NIGHT MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES IN MY NORTH. SECOND STRONG
HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

$$
AVIATION...07
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22

[Josephine96]

snow already huh..? a little early don't ya think

[meso_jr]

I know its accuweather, but just the mention of snow for my hometown (Wheeling, WV) is exciting! I can't wait until our local media begins forecasting for the first big one...at this rate it will be Halloween? LOL....

http://www.freewebs.com/daytonwx/snow.html

[meso_jr]

three days later and it's still there.... hmmm..... i wonder what they are seeing?!

[therock1811]

Looks like it was pushed back to the 17th. I see I may have a shot on the 16th, but it predicts only rain and 35°.

[Guest]

its been showing cold for a while. Right now it gives me lows of around 41 for days 10-15, and 42-42 for 9 and 8. Also has me very rainy (we actually do need rain).

[Guest]

Now lets see they have Wheeling, WV which is about 400+ miles to the SW of here getting snow on that day and night yet here they have temps in the 50s during the day and near 34 or so at night??????
Just doesnt add up! hmmmmmm.

btw here is the forecast for here! http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/local_index_11to15day.asp?zipcode=49068&metric=0&partner=accuweather&traveler=0

Its no wonder i stay away from accuwx.

[therock1811]

I'm not big on them either. Truth be told, that's more of a guess than anything.

[therock1811]

Now lets see they have Wheeling, WV which is about 400+ miles to the SW of here getting snow on that day and night yet here they have temps in the 50s during the day and near 34 or so at night??????
Just doesnt add up! hmmmmmm.

btw here is the forecast for here! http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/local_index_11to15day.asp?zipcode=49068&metric=0&partner=accuweather&traveler=0

Its no wonder i stay away from accuwx.

That don't add up...accuwx also has the same for Wheeling. Hmmm...

[meso_jr]

I know it's accuweather, but like I said in the post its just cool to see the first forecast snow (even if we know it could be crap). We all know that accuweather shouldn't be trusted that far out, but they have been somewhat consistant...doesn't that count for something?! Wonder what they're seeing out there for that date...

Jay

[therock1811]

If I hadn't seen this myself I wouldn't have believed it. Indeed I'm not counting on it, since it IS accuweather. BUT, snow for day 11??? At least early in the day according to this, the previous night's forecast low is 34°:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/local_index_11to15day.asp?zipcode=41042&metric=0&partner=accuweather&traveler=1

Will likely change later today BTW.

[tomboudreau]

This was in this afternoon's State College discussion...

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WL INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD 10-20 PCT FOR THE MID AND
LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...AS THE GUIDANCE IS NOW CENTERING ON A
SOLN THAT WOULD PRODUCE A GREAT LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES BY LATE WEEK. A WAVE LOOKS TO ROLL UP THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE REGION FOR WED...BUT WE MAY BE COOL-AIR DAMMED. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A COLD RAIN. THEN...COLD AIR TRIES TO ESTABLISH A
FOOT HOLD IN THE REGION FRI AND SAT (DAY8). 8H TEMPS MAY DIP TO -2
OR EVEN -6 IN THE NW MTNS FRI/SAT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ESP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS OF FORECASTERS AND KEEP OUT MENTION
OF SNOW FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES AT THIS TIME. FOR SURE THIS COLD AIR
CROSSING THE LAKE ERIE WATERS WILL CRANK UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
MAKE SHOWERS OF SOME TYPE. AS WE GET CLOSER THE OLD S-WORD MAY CREEP
IN TO THE FORECAST.