NWS FORT WORTH TX....AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...10/6

[CaptinCrunch]

EXTENSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM WEST TEXAS...WILL
AFFECT WESTERN REACHES OF CWA THIS MORNING. FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED
WITH ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS. WITH RECENT PRECIP AND LIMITED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PAST FEW DAYS...BELIEVE SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. DO NOT FEEL FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND DURATION OF PRECIP AFTER
DAYBREAK. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY.

NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN DIFLUENT ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND FURTHER
LOW-LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
CONTINUALLY MORE UNSTABLE...WITH SIGNIFICANT QG FORCING. TEMPS THRU
FRIDAY BELOW MOS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDCOVER.

COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM DISTURBED WEATHER IN BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND WESTERN GULF...TCP WATCHING BUT NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. INDUCED N/NE FLOW THAT WILL RESULT SHOULD LIMIT
REFUELING MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO END...DESPITE MODELS LINGERING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OUR TROUGH NOT QUITE CUT OFF AS NEXT LOW DIGGING INTO DESERT SW
SQUEEZES OUR TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT LOW APPEARS TO PINCH OFF
A BIT...KEEPING RIDGING IN PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...00Z
GFS HAS MORE OPEN TROUGH...THOUGH 00Z CANADIAN RETAINS INTENSE
CUT-OFF. 00Z EURO MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH...GIVING NORTH TEXAS
A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP ZERO POPS
AND WARMING TREND TEMPS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.