Midwest and Ohio Valley severe threat

[Indystorm]

The Midwest and Ohio Valley seem to be under the gun starting Monday Oct. 18 and again on Thursday Oct. 21 as two potent systems with strong dynamics come through. The first system will develop a warm front across Mo. Southern Illinois and Indiana. LLJ is forecast to be strong and helicity favorable for rotating storms. SPC currently has a large area under a slight risk for Monday as of Saturday afternoon. I think most favorable risk area from this system will be from central Illinois and Indiana on south. Thursday system will be off to northwest with much of the Midwest in the warm sector and could lead to an active day. What are your thoughts?

[PurdueWx80]

Ya beat me to it! It's hard to believe after how cold it is today, but a heck of a warm front will set up and as the low-level jet impinges on this gradient, it looks like some good nocturnal storms will fire up on the 850 front. It looks like we're going into a mini-severe weather season a bit early this fall. I see the SPC is outlining the possibility of an upgrade to moderate risk, although I think the biggest severe threat will occur once the western trough moves east. By then there should be very favorable flow off the Gulf so moisture and heat will be plentiful. It will come down to a matter of timing shortwave features, convective triggering on outflow and fronts, and the eastern push of the Western trough. Still, Monday and Tuesday should be pretty active along the warm front, especially ahead of the low and cold front on Tuesday. I'm glad we're going to get some rain out of this too - it has been far too dry since the end of August.

[therock1811]

This could be interesting! I hope we don't see that! And BTW speaking of cold wx I have a freeze warning here tonight. Down to 32. BRRRRR....

[NWIASpotter]

I wouldn't mind seeing some thunderstorms next week, but all I have in the forecast is chances of showers.

[Guest]

I wouldn't mind seeing some thunderstorms next week, but all I have in the forecast is chances of showers.

Here in Omaha, we have a slight risk of severe weather for the metro east area (sw IA) Monday, and then come Thursday, we have another chance of storms. It is too early to tell on the severity, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but at this time of year with seasons changing, it can't be ruled out!

[ohiostorm]

We had a big frost last night and I wake up to thunder this morning. Big contrast.

[Wnghs2007]

There is a big potential for some highly devestating storms this afternoon Unfortunatley

[therock1811]

Well we have a flood watch but no severe wx here and I don't think we'll see any.

[CaptinCrunch]

A warm to hot week followed by sever weather for the central U.S. The warm wx will push north all the way to the great lakes area and east by mid week, with a storm system pushing down the west coast and expected to move east across the southern states will meet up with the warm moist troptical jet stream and cause sever weather from central Tx to the Ohio river valley out ahead of the cold front and low presure system by the coming weekend. High's are expected to reach the upper 80's to lower 90's in Texas and parts of OK, with mid to lower 80's and upper 70's from OK northward.

[Wnghs2007]

A warm to hot week followed by sever weather for the central U.S. The warm wx will push north all the way to the great lakes area and east by mid week, with a storm system pushing down the west coast and expected to move east across the southern states will meet up with warm moist troptical jet stream and cause sever weather from central Tx to the Ohio river valley out ahead of the cold front and low presure system by the coming weekend. High's are expected to reach the upper 80's to lower 90's in Texas and parts of OK, with mid to lower 80's and upper 70's from OK northward.

Sheesh No wonder it is going to get nasty.