Be interesting to see what the latest Day 2 Outlook shows in a couple of hours. Tornadoes possible in the upper Midwest (Is it me or is there alot more tornado activity in the Midwest and Great Lakes LATER in the year these days)
634
ACUS01 KWNS 280607
SWODY1
SPC AC 280605
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AXN 40
W MSP MCW 25 ESE DSM LWD 35 S OMA YKN 40 WNW HON ABR AXN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 10 S CMH 10
SSE CRW 15 S SAV ..CONT.. 30 SE JAX 60 N PIE ..CONT.. 35 SSE MOB
20 WSW GWO 15 SW LIT PGO ADM 40 WNW DRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GDP 50 ENE DHT
RSL EAR 35 E MHN SNY 40 SE ALS GUP EED 60 NE DAG EKO 55 SSW BOI 80
SSE S80 BZN 50 NW MLS 70 NW MOT.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SD...EXTREME ERN
NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE MEAN PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CONUS THROUGH
PERIOD...BUT WITH IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE ADJUSTMENTS. LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CA/NV
-- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH PERIOD. ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL ASSUME POSITIVE TILT ACROSS
WRN CONUS...AS UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT
SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS INVOF NERN WY AND MOVES GENERALLY
EWD TOWARD SERN SD/NWRN IA. SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN
CO AND N-CENTRAL TO SERN KS...WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY EARLY
IN PERIOD AND ACROSS PORTIONS UPPER AND LOWER MI BY 29/12Z. DRYLINE
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED EARLY IN PERIOD FROM SERN NM TO ERN
CO...THEN MOVE EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF VERTICAL MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO ITS
W.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CORRIDOR FROM
E-CENTRAL SD SEWD ACROSS WRN IA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHILE AVAILABLE BUOYANCY INVOF WARM FRONT STILL WILL BE
SFC-BASED. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z WILL BE IN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL
AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
60S TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH MOIST SECTOR BEHIND SFC WARM
FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. FCST HODOGRAPHS
NEAR WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY BACKED SFC FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED 0-1 KM SRH ON 150-250 J/KG RANGE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS
40-50 KT. SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGIME MAY PRODUCE ANY FORM OF SEVERE
INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHARPLY DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NEWD
OVER DAKOTAS/MN/IA...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG IT IS
UNLIKELY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FCST THETA CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SLOPE...AND AREA WILL BE UNDER
OR JUST W OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AROUND 21Z. THEREAFTER CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAY ALLOW SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT INVOF WARM FRONT
AND AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION. 45-55 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT
CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER DARK WITH OCCASIONAL
HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE FARTHER S NEAR DRYLINE AS WELL WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING...COVERAGE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN ABOUT27/21Z AND 28/03Z.
..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/28/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
Latest SPC Day 1 looks a little interesting
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michaelwmoss
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:56 am
- Location: New Whiteland, IN
- Contact:
-
michaelwmoss
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:56 am
- Location: New Whiteland, IN
- Contact:
Yep even more so!!
ACUS02 KWNS 280733
SWODY2
SPC AC 280732
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
PLN 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10
W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 10 E OTG 30 NW RWF
15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25
ENE AQQ 10 SE TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD
..CONT.. 75 SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40
ESE OFK 15 N BUB 45 NNE VTN 35 ENE PIR 20 E FAR 35 E INL ..CONT..
30 NNW PBG 30 WNW MSV 30 SE MRB 10 S DAN 25 E CHS.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES SSWWD TO THE ERN OK/NW AR AREA....
...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A SURFACE LOW INVOF NE NEB/SE SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD UPPER MI WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND REMNANT LEE TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS DURING
THE DAY AND THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION.
...MS VALLEY REGION...
A BROAD/RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE GULF STATES AND AS FAR N AS KS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NWD TODAY AND TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR TOMORROW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST.
WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA WITH AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE MORE PROBABLE
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE WI AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
FARTHER S...A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO MO.
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.
..THOMPSON.. 10/28/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
ACUS02 KWNS 280733
SWODY2
SPC AC 280732
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
PLN 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10
W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 10 E OTG 30 NW RWF
15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25
ENE AQQ 10 SE TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD
..CONT.. 75 SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40
ESE OFK 15 N BUB 45 NNE VTN 35 ENE PIR 20 E FAR 35 E INL ..CONT..
30 NNW PBG 30 WNW MSV 30 SE MRB 10 S DAN 25 E CHS.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES SSWWD TO THE ERN OK/NW AR AREA....
...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A SURFACE LOW INVOF NE NEB/SE SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD UPPER MI WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND REMNANT LEE TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS DURING
THE DAY AND THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION.
...MS VALLEY REGION...
A BROAD/RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE GULF STATES AND AS FAR N AS KS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NWD TODAY AND TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR TOMORROW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST.
WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA WITH AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE MORE PROBABLE
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE WI AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
FARTHER S...A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO MO.
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.
..THOMPSON.. 10/28/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
0 likes
-
michaelwmoss
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:56 am
- Location: New Whiteland, IN
- Contact:
Still looks probable, maybe even more so. Day 2 this time around will also be interesting!!@
657
ACUS01 KWNS 290605
SWODY1
SPC AC 290603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
MTC MBS 45 NNE GRR MKG CGX 45 WSW ARG 45 NNE HOT 40 ENE PGO MLC OKC
FLV DSM FOD SPW FSD MHE HON ABR HIB 40 NNE CMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 20 W CTY
..CONT.. PFN 0A8 HOP 35 SSW PAH 35 SSE SHV AUS 40 SSE DRT
..CONT.. 75 SSW P07 FST 65 WSW SPS MHK 40 SE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 ESE
YKN 30 NNW BUB MHN DGW 30 SE SHR 40 NNE 4BQ BIS 15 WNW INL
..CONT.. 25 N ART ABE DCA CLT 40 SW CHS.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER GREAT BASIN -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE TRACKING TOWARD
SRN MN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER CENTRAL/WRN
NEB -- WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MOST OF DAY AS IT CROSSES SERN SD AND SRN
MN. THIS CYCLONE MAY OCCLUDE BEFORE END OF PERIOD ACROSS ERN
MN/NWRN WI AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SURGES EWD OVER NRN MS
VALLEY. COLD FRONT ALSO WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
MERGE IN NNE-SSW ALIGNED ZIPPER PROCESS WITH WEAKER COMBINED PACIFIC
FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER ERN KS AND OK.
DRYLINE/FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN TX.
RESULTANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT -- SIGNIFYING WRN EDGE OF MOIST
SECTOR -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA SWWD INVOF MKC-OKC-ABI LINE
DURING 29/23Z-30/00Z TIME FRAME...BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE FROM LATEST SREF MEMBERS AND 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. WARM
FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN IA SEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND SRN IL --
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES STATES AND MI THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...REACHING SRN AND CENTRAL ONT BY 30/12Z.
...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK...
ARC OF SEVERE TSTMS -- CONSISTING OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS --
IS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT...AND BENEATH AND N OF NOSE OF MIDLEVEL DRY SURGE. A FEW
SUPERCELLS ALSO MAY FORM IN WARM SECTOR OR ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN
CINH. STORMS MOVING N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL
THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS
HAVING SFC-BASED INFLOW IN WARM SECTOR. STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION...RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...AHEAD OF DEEPENING CYCLONE. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS BETWEEN COLD AND WARM FRONTS
-- WITH 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG. CORRIDOR OF MOST FAVORABLE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW BUT MLCAPES UP TO NEAR
1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS ALLOWING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
FARTHER S...PROBABLE COLD FRONTAL ALIGNMENT ACROSS SRN IA AND MO IS
MORE PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND AND PROJECTED STORM MOTION VECTORS THAN
FARTHER N. THIS...COMBINED WITH STEEPNESS OF FRONT BASED ON PROGGED
LOW LEVEL CROSS SECTIONS...SUGGEST QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH EMBEDDED
OR EARLY STAGE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL SRH AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DISCRETE SUPERCELL PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN FARTHER SWD INTO WRN MO...ERN KS AND NERN OK...WHERE
1. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE WLY AND ACROSS FORCING
BOUNDARY AND
2. CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON...AND
3. BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE WITH UPPER 60S/70S F SFC DEW
POINTS SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.
CAPPING...HOWEVER...MAY ALSO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
COVERAGE AND THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. STILL...ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS WHICH FORM MAY PRODUCE FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE.
LINEAR FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK INVOF
FRONT...RESULTING IN THREAT BECOMING PRIMARILY DAMAGING GUSTS.
CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT
THROUGH CENTRAL/SERN OK AND WRN/CENTRAL TX WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH
CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
...NERN WI...UPPER MI...NRN LOWER MI...LS AND NRN LM...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION INVOF NOSE OF 35-45 KT LLJ. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING THETAE ABOVE RELATIVELY COOL...PRE
WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECT MUCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG AWAY FROM
EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...INCREASING WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC WARM
FRONT. SUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT EPISODES OF TSTMS WITH
HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN. AFTER DARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED MODE CLOSELY WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
657
ACUS01 KWNS 290605
SWODY1
SPC AC 290603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
MTC MBS 45 NNE GRR MKG CGX 45 WSW ARG 45 NNE HOT 40 ENE PGO MLC OKC
FLV DSM FOD SPW FSD MHE HON ABR HIB 40 NNE CMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 20 W CTY
..CONT.. PFN 0A8 HOP 35 SSW PAH 35 SSE SHV AUS 40 SSE DRT
..CONT.. 75 SSW P07 FST 65 WSW SPS MHK 40 SE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 ESE
YKN 30 NNW BUB MHN DGW 30 SE SHR 40 NNE 4BQ BIS 15 WNW INL
..CONT.. 25 N ART ABE DCA CLT 40 SW CHS.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER GREAT BASIN -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE TRACKING TOWARD
SRN MN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER CENTRAL/WRN
NEB -- WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MOST OF DAY AS IT CROSSES SERN SD AND SRN
MN. THIS CYCLONE MAY OCCLUDE BEFORE END OF PERIOD ACROSS ERN
MN/NWRN WI AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SURGES EWD OVER NRN MS
VALLEY. COLD FRONT ALSO WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
MERGE IN NNE-SSW ALIGNED ZIPPER PROCESS WITH WEAKER COMBINED PACIFIC
FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER ERN KS AND OK.
DRYLINE/FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN TX.
RESULTANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT -- SIGNIFYING WRN EDGE OF MOIST
SECTOR -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA SWWD INVOF MKC-OKC-ABI LINE
DURING 29/23Z-30/00Z TIME FRAME...BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE FROM LATEST SREF MEMBERS AND 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. WARM
FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN IA SEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND SRN IL --
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES STATES AND MI THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...REACHING SRN AND CENTRAL ONT BY 30/12Z.
...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK...
ARC OF SEVERE TSTMS -- CONSISTING OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS --
IS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT...AND BENEATH AND N OF NOSE OF MIDLEVEL DRY SURGE. A FEW
SUPERCELLS ALSO MAY FORM IN WARM SECTOR OR ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN
CINH. STORMS MOVING N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL
THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS
HAVING SFC-BASED INFLOW IN WARM SECTOR. STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION...RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...AHEAD OF DEEPENING CYCLONE. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS BETWEEN COLD AND WARM FRONTS
-- WITH 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG. CORRIDOR OF MOST FAVORABLE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW BUT MLCAPES UP TO NEAR
1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS ALLOWING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
FARTHER S...PROBABLE COLD FRONTAL ALIGNMENT ACROSS SRN IA AND MO IS
MORE PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND AND PROJECTED STORM MOTION VECTORS THAN
FARTHER N. THIS...COMBINED WITH STEEPNESS OF FRONT BASED ON PROGGED
LOW LEVEL CROSS SECTIONS...SUGGEST QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE AND PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH EMBEDDED
OR EARLY STAGE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL SRH AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DISCRETE SUPERCELL PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN FARTHER SWD INTO WRN MO...ERN KS AND NERN OK...WHERE
1. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE WLY AND ACROSS FORCING
BOUNDARY AND
2. CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON...AND
3. BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE WITH UPPER 60S/70S F SFC DEW
POINTS SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.
CAPPING...HOWEVER...MAY ALSO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT
COVERAGE AND THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. STILL...ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS WHICH FORM MAY PRODUCE FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE.
LINEAR FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK INVOF
FRONT...RESULTING IN THREAT BECOMING PRIMARILY DAMAGING GUSTS.
CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT
THROUGH CENTRAL/SERN OK AND WRN/CENTRAL TX WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH
CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
...NERN WI...UPPER MI...NRN LOWER MI...LS AND NRN LM...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION INVOF NOSE OF 35-45 KT LLJ. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING THETAE ABOVE RELATIVELY COOL...PRE
WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECT MUCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG AWAY FROM
EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...INCREASING WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC WARM
FRONT. SUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT EPISODES OF TSTMS WITH
HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN. AFTER DARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED MODE CLOSELY WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
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