Cut-off Low in SoCal

[aveosmth]

Looks like we are going to deal w/the weatherman's worst nightmare this weekend; the cutoff low....depending on the track we may either have breezy & partly-cloudy conditions or thunderstorms w/waterspouts & hail....the cold core of this system is -26 degrees & steep lapse rates are projected....the only variable that is yet to be decided is location....Tornado_Chaser or Joshua, any preliminary thoughts on this system??? BTW, last weeks system just missed me here in Santa Monica....we got a couple bolts of lightning & some thunder....

[weatherlover427]

Well I just looked at some of the latest computer projections for the low (which by the way if you are interested can be found here at http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ ). They show the cold core to have modified (i.e. warmed up) slightly, but since it will still be passing near or directly overhead our location, that is what is good for showers and thunderstorms. Also good for showers and thunderstorms is the fact that the vorticity center (which we look for at 500 Vort) will be very nearby our area as well, and rather strong (25-30 at least) at that. So this, coupled with the fact that there will be some 250 mb winds there, should make for at least a slight chance of thunderstorms this weekend. I haven't looked at the rest of the models yet but I will update if anything changes.

[weatherlover427]

To update on this system ...

It is moving in as we speak. Some lightning is being observed just offshore of my location, and there is a large area of showers with embedded thunderstorms not too far from where I am at according to radar. Hail has occasionally been detected by a special radar software that I use, but it is not showing any at this time. The National Weather Service in San Diego expects the first showers with possible thunderstorms to move onshore here between 5 and 7 AM, which is not too far from now (I show 4:33 AM on my compy clock right now.) We will see what happens.