A dangerous severe weather outbreak possible Tuesday....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the situation on Tuesday and Tuesday very well compares to the November 22nd, 1992 tornado outbreak with the bulls eye likely over southeastern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and Mississippi points eastward. Unseasonably warm, moist, and unstable air will be in place in these areas Tuesday afternoon upon the arrival of a very sharp cold front associated with a deepening cyclogenesis. Capes should be well over 1000 j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. In addition Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana will be in the right front entrance region of a 120 knot jet and in the left exit region of another 120 knot jet as a coupled jet plows into the region. In the mid levels, southwest winds will likely be 75-85 knots along and just behind the cold front while the low level jet is expected to come in from the south at 60 knots. There is also mid level dry air intruding in with this event, which will make for more breaks in the clouds and a better chance for surface heating prior to and leading up to this event.

The main concerns will be for a dangerous squall line developing with this system along the cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday night with isolated tornadoes, heavy rains and flooding due to moist soils, and wind gusts easily over 65 mph, possibly stronger. Multiple bow echoes are possible with this event meaning wind gusts could reach hurricane force. The bigger concern will be if supercells develop ahead of this dangerous squall line. The potential does exist for strong dangerous tornadoes and very large hail with supercell storms Tuesday afternoon from northeastern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and Mississippi.

This setup as described by the NWS at Jackson is being termed unprecedented and very similar to that of the dangerous and deadly tornado outbreak of November 22nd, 1992. The following below is part of a discussion describing the event of November 22nd, 1992 just within the Jackson, Mississippi NWS warning area. It must be emphasized that an outbreak similar to this is possible late Tuesday and into Tuesday night. NWS in Jackson will be on conference call with emergency managers tomorrow due to the nature of this event. Folks living in Louisiana, Arkansas, and especially in areas in and around Jackson, Mississippi need to be on vigilant alert Tuesday afternoon and night and have a severe weather plan in place to save your life.

THE ANTICIPATED ATMOSPHERIC SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERNS MIMIC
THE PATTERN THAT WAS OBSERVED ON NOVEMBER 21, 1992. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN VERSUS THE PATTERN
BACK IN 1992 IS THAT THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MORE MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL JET
IS COUPLED OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS. BY THE WAY...THE EVENT OF NOVEMBER
21, 1992 PRODUCED 15 TORNADOES...INCLUDING 2 F4'S...1 F3...AND 6
F2'S OVER THE JACKSON COUNTY WARNING AREA ALONE.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE A CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED WITH
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TOMORROW.'


More updates will be issued on this violent outbreak potential tomorrow. Stick around.

Jim