Calm before the storm

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 270208
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
915 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...

.DISCUSSION...RATHER QUIET EVENING WITH JUST SOME ISOLD SHRA OVER
OUR CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SRN AREAS. WARM FRONT IS DIFFUSE OVER
EXTREME S FL PENINSULA BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING NORTHWARD...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DOWN SOUTH. PLUME OF MOISTURE COVERS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN GULF...AND CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE WRN GULF E OF KBRO. EXPECT DEEPENING LOW TO MOVE ACROSS N FL SOME
TIME IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. NAM
HAS THE LOW TRAVELLING SLOWER...AND MOVING ASHORE IN THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE LATE AFTN SUN. GIVEN CURRENT FASTER PATTERN...AM GOING WITH
THE GFS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION.

GIVEN THIS TIMING...EXPECT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL
BNDY...AND MAY SEE SOME ISOLD SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. SPC CURRENTLY HAS ENTIRE CWA UNDER SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...AND WILL CONTINUE MONITORING TO SEE IF A WATCH IS
NECESSARY.

TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL GO WITH THE WARM FRONT...SO
EXPECT THE MORNING HOURS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FOR OUR SRN ZONES...
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN CENTRAL...AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR
THE NATURE COAST. ISSUED A LATE AFTN SPS DETAILING THE OVERALL THREAT
TO GIVE AS MUCH 'HEADS-UP' AS POSSIBLE FOR A WEEKEND EVENT.

COULD SEE A SECOND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU
LATER IN THE AFTN. GFS INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND
1000 MB. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AND
BETTER DYNAMICS...A LOW LEVEL JET OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS...SHUD SEE
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO ORLANDO IN THE
AFTN.

ALL THIS BEING SAID...CURRENT ZONES HANDLE THE ABOVE FAIRLY WELL.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES FOR TIMING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS UP
NORTH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT RAIN TO START UP SOON...AND MAKE FOR MISERABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NRN WATERS
SUN AROUND NOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER AROUND. AT THIS POINT
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW IS MOVING TOO FAST TO CREATE A HIGH SEAS EVENT...
BUT SHUD THE LOW DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST COULD SEE SOME
COASTAL FLOODING. WILL ADD A HEADLINE FOR SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...THOUGH MAY ALSO BRIEFLY GET INTO SCA RANGE SUN AFTN CLOSER
TO THE LOW CENTER. ALSO WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
1030 UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

RJS/BSG

[Aquawind]

Radar is starting to pick up some colorful cells already.. Maybe some training rains later..looks like a major soaking..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/ ... ta+Springs

Paul

[SouthernWx]

I agree with KTBW.....this appears to be a classic severe wx setup for the peninsula; won't be surprised if SPC upgrades much of Florida to a moderate risk on the SWODY1...either later tonight or tomorrow a.m....shear profiles look very potent

PW

[Ed1]

It started raining in my area at 12:45am and has continued to rain nonstop. So far we've gotten .65" of rain with more to come.

Not much of a heavy rain..just steady rain.