Locally heavy rainfall continues in a band from N of CC to Matagorda Bay. 88D estimates indicate 1-2 inches with isolated 4 inches has fallen since 300am across Bee, Goliad, and Aransas counties and 2-3 inches across Calhoun and Jackson counties since 600am.
Water vapor images along with surface data indicate deep moisture through 500mb and a stalled or slowly northward moving warm front from the central GOM to Victoria to Alice. Convection continues to fire along and south of this boundary and train ENE from 45 miles SSW of Victoria to near Bay City. A low level jet continues to feed into the SW side of the convection maintaining good low level inflow and moisture. Heavy rains will conitnue through the early afternoon over the Matagorda Bay area and then shift ENE or NE into SE TX later this afternoon and tongiht. Mesoscale effects may result in a backbuilding of convection to the SSW into the low level jet and cut off inflow for storms further inland. If this happens all the heavy rains will be along the coast and offshore.
Monday looks active as a cold front and upper level storm over NW Mexico combine over the state. There is some concern that winds will veer WSW or SW and scour some of the moisture. Looking at the NAM and GFS they are on totally different planets with respect to convective developments with the NAM showing widespread MCS Tuesday and the GFS showing much of the action Monday. I have a feeling the mesoscale will take over and most guidance will be poor after Monday midday.
TX Rain
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TX Rain
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Stormsfury
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Model guidance has had a major problem regarding timing of s/w's and the strength of such features ... yesterday's severe weather outbreak from a line of convection through SC which produced a slew of strong and damaging wind gusts ... including a 67 MPH wind gust in Pineville, SC (Berkeley County) ...
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Active morning already over C and SC TX with S/W heading ENE out of Mexico.
Expect deep convection to continue to increase in coverage and intensity this morning. Parameters are in place for severe modes including tornadoes, especially south of a Lake Charles to Conroe to College Station to Austin line.
Expect deep convection to continue to increase in coverage and intensity this morning. Parameters are in place for severe modes including tornadoes, especially south of a Lake Charles to Conroe to College Station to Austin line.
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Active severe weather ongoing across SC and C TX, Cell just south of San Antonio looks very nasty on 88D. Cell heading for areas N of CLL has had a history of producing hail and strong winds.
Additional activity will be developing over SC and C TX this morning and into the early afternoon.
Main threats will be damaging winds and hail, although a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Additional activity will be developing over SC and C TX this morning and into the early afternoon.
Main threats will be damaging winds and hail, although a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
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Nasty severe cells over SC TX and developing over SW parts of SE TX. SPC weather watch is possible within the next few hours as storms become increasingly surface based.
Clearing already over SW and NC TX ahead of dry line and surface cold front. Could be a very active evening after current activity presses eastward
Clearing already over SW and NC TX ahead of dry line and surface cold front. Could be a very active evening after current activity presses eastward
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Thanks for the update Jeff....I'm here in the Northside of Houston near the Beltway and I-45N. I've got my Kodak 6490 digital camera with me today in case a good storm gets close to me. If you don't mind, let me know about any good storms moving into my area and I will get out and get some pictures and post them here.
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Quite the severe event across SC and SE TX today with lots of hail reports. Hail covered the ground 3-4 inches deep around the San Antonio area this morning.
We shall get a break tonight and most of Tuesday before a potent S/W crosses the state Tuesday night and Wed and the Baja low opens and shears E across the state.
Surface obs show much drier air filtering E behind the C TX dry line this evening with dewpoints in the 30's and 40's. Guidance shows winds swinging back around to the SE by midday Tuesday over C and N TX with modest moisture advection. Main question is how deep we can get the moisture before the arrival of the strong dynamics associated with the next S/W. Consensus is that enough moisture will work into C, N, and SE TX for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture return is strongly dependent on penetration of dry air into the NW Gulf and how fast upstream S/W approaches. A slow moving S/W will give more time for air mass modification.
Given the current progs., it appears enough moisture will be available especially over E and N TX for showers and low topped thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wed (although this is leaning more on the GFS than the NAM). Mid level temps. are once again very cold (-21 to -23 C) so the main threat will be hailers. This system is not all that different from the one last week which gave N TX some HAIL, however dynamics may be a little stronger with this system.
JL
We shall get a break tonight and most of Tuesday before a potent S/W crosses the state Tuesday night and Wed and the Baja low opens and shears E across the state.
Surface obs show much drier air filtering E behind the C TX dry line this evening with dewpoints in the 30's and 40's. Guidance shows winds swinging back around to the SE by midday Tuesday over C and N TX with modest moisture advection. Main question is how deep we can get the moisture before the arrival of the strong dynamics associated with the next S/W. Consensus is that enough moisture will work into C, N, and SE TX for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture return is strongly dependent on penetration of dry air into the NW Gulf and how fast upstream S/W approaches. A slow moving S/W will give more time for air mass modification.
Given the current progs., it appears enough moisture will be available especially over E and N TX for showers and low topped thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wed (although this is leaning more on the GFS than the NAM). Mid level temps. are once again very cold (-21 to -23 C) so the main threat will be hailers. This system is not all that different from the one last week which gave N TX some HAIL, however dynamics may be a little stronger with this system.
JL
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GalvestonDuck
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Record Rainfall Report ... (PRESS RELEASE)
Issued by the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
7:15 AM CST Tuesday, March 8, 2005
...Record rainfall amount of 3.81 inches set at Jamaica Beach on Monday...
A new rainfall record was established at the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
(JBHT2) on Monday, March 7, 2005 when a total of 3.81 inches fell during the period
from Midnight to Midnight CST. Obviously, the previous daily record amount of 0.10 of
an inch on March 7, 1998 was obliterated.
More importantly, yesterday's rainfall total also established a new record for the entire
month of March at Jamaica Beach. The previous record of 3.17 inches was set on
March 25, 1997. The all-time record at Jamaica Beach for a single day during any
month is 10.73 inches which occurred on August 15, 2002.
Official weather records have been kept at Jamaica Beach since December 1, 1990.
In addition to the heavy rainfall yesterday, one-fourth inch in diameter (pea size) hail
fell from 8:44 AM until 8:46 AM CST. Last but not least, a peak wind gust of 30 knots
(35 mph) occurred at 8:46 AM CST during the torrential thunderstorm.
The monthly rainfall total at Jamaica Beach is now 5.12 inches and the year to date
rainfall since January 1st is now 11.17 inches.
Yesterday, Scholes International Airport in Galveston recorded 1.67 inches of rainfall
but this did not establish a new daily record there. The record for the date remains
1.83 inches on March 7, 1970. Official weather records in Galveston began in 1871.
The monthly rainfall total at Galveston is now 2.89 inches and the year to date
rainfall since January 1st is now 7.81 inches.
Jim O'Donnel
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
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Johnny wrote:Hey Jeff, not too much came out of this latest little showery line that moved through Southeast, Texas this morning. Why weren't things able to get going? What was the culprit?
Moisture. Not enough. Dewpoints were only able to rebound into the low to mid 40's. Much of the .9in PW was based above 700mb with a very dry layer below that which evaporated most of the rain. Not to mention it appears the strongest dynamics passed over NE TX and LA where showers have developed with afternoon heating.
Dry and sunny for the next 5 days at least.
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