SE TX - Possible Severe Monday 3/21/05

[JenBayles]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
630 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE AND WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE AND THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR
PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HOWEVER...THE THREAT AREA INCLUDES ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MID-DAY. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END LATE THIS
EVENING AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WHERE TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION. SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT....
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND/OR THIS EVENING.

$$

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... er+Outlook

[vbhoutex]

Looks like I could be busy this afternoon/evening if I can get out of the office.

[Johnny]

I'm here on the north side near Bush Intercontinental. I'll be getting out of here with camera in tow when the storms move into the area.

[Shoshana]

Heavy rain in Austin. Lightning earlier, just rain now.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looks like a busy day for Houston weather wise. The only small mitigating factor, especially for the arklatex region is cloud cover and a few showers now. There is only a narrow swath just ahead of the dryline in central Oklahoma and north Texas of sunshine and daytime heating promoting more instability. This is key for the Arklatex region later since the severe threat is likely significant. This threat extends down into Houston with main threats of large hail and tornadoes.

Jim

[vbhoutex]

Just from looking at radar, and nothing else, including going out and looking at the sky, it appears that the threat to SE TX has lessened somewhat. Can anyone update on this? When we had the severe the other day it was obvious when the cap broke and it doesn't look like that is happening here in Houston, at least not yet.

[KatDaddy]

Mesoscale Discussion 321 for SE TX and S Central TX.

The clear to pc skies are allowing for continued heating between VCT and HOU. This add to the energy available for supercells. Looking to be a very rough afternoon and evening for all of SE TX.

From the SPC:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0321.html

[JenBayles]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211644
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SPC'S MORNING DAY 1 UPDATE STILL HAS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN MODERATE RISK. HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT A MORNING UPDATED PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY
AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 42/46
&&

[george_r_1961]

Looks like thunderstorms have increased across Texas with some of them looking quite healthy. Bet on a tornado
watch for SE Texas and possibly parts of Lousiana as well soon.

[CaptinCrunch]

[jeff]

Supercells starting to develop over SE TX. One over S Austin County and another over SW Walker County.

Dry line still well to the west over C TX with rapidly approaching jet streak.

Stroms over C TX should continue to develop and intensify through the early afternoon while shifting slowly E into SE TX.

Cu outside the window is getting very puffy, and capping is getting weaker by the hour. Suspect it will not be long before cells start popping over a good part of SE TX.

Shear remains favorable for tornadic supercells and very large hail

[KWT]

Yes,I'm watching on radar from here in the U.K,the cold cored Lp is currently heading east if I'm not mistaken(can someone confirm as i'm over in the U.K and haven't really got a grip on the situation over there)supercells do indeed seem to be falring up over Se Texas as daytime temps+dew points rise and there is still some good levels of shear and the dryline also heading towards the region over the next few hours,certainly Eastern Texas and south eastern Oklahoma I suspect will see some more supercells soon,as may other areas and some tornadoes are quite possible with just about every type of severe weather possible!

While not to the same level off you lot over there,here in the U.k the odd low topped supercell may well be possible,although more likely some sharp showers and the odd T-storm.

[JenBayles]

Supercells starting to develop over SE TX. One over S Austin County and another over SW Walker County.

Dry line still well to the west over C TX with rapidly approaching jet streak.

Stroms over C TX should continue to develop and intensify through the early afternoon while shifting slowly E into SE TX.

Cu outside the window is getting very puffy, and capping is getting weaker by the hour. Suspect it will not be long before cells start popping over a good part of SE TX.

Shear remains favorable for tornadic supercells and very large hail

What part of town are you in Jeff? I'm close to Memorial & Eldridge and the view from my office looks due East (unfortunately!). Lots of wind sucking up ahead of this system.

[vbhoutex]

Watching outside it is obvious that the weather is becoming more and more unsettled here in deep SE TX. Cap appears to be in the process of "breaking" as indeed it looks like more storms are starting to fire. Could be a very interesting afternoon/evening unless it all stays to our North.

[snowflake]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

[snowflake]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE AS WELL. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BE REQUESTED TONIGHT.

[JenBayles]

Watching outside it is obvious that the weather is becoming more and more unsettled here in deep SE TX. Cap appears to be in the process of "breaking" as indeed it looks like more storms are starting to fire. Could be a very interesting afternoon/evening unless it all stays to our North.

Radar is looking pretty non-interesting at the moment. Everyone still think it'll blow up later?

[jeff]

Supercells starting to develop over SE TX. One over S Austin County and another over SW Walker County.

Dry line still well to the west over C TX with rapidly approaching jet streak.

Stroms over C TX should continue to develop and intensify through the early afternoon while shifting slowly E into SE TX.

Cu outside the window is getting very puffy, and capping is getting weaker by the hour. Suspect it will not be long before cells start popping over a good part of SE TX.

Shear remains favorable for tornadic supercells and very large hail

I work at 610/290 live by KIAH

What part of town are you in Jeff? I'm close to Memorial & Eldridge and the view from my office looks due East (unfortunately!). Lots of wind sucking up ahead of this system.

[jeff]

Watching outside it is obvious that the weather is becoming more and more unsettled here in deep SE TX. Cap appears to be in the process of "breaking" as indeed it looks like more storms are starting to fire. Could be a very interesting afternoon/evening unless it all stays to our North.

Radar is looking pretty non-interesting at the moment. Everyone still think it'll blow up later?

New SPC risk out and maintains the risk area.

Strong surface heating is ocurring along the dry line with a powerful jet streak approaching C TX. Lead short wave responsible for the activity this morning and early afternoon is producing some subsidence keeping T-storms in check even though the trigger temps. have been exceeded.

It still could be an active evening as shear remains good and instability continues to increase with surface heating