Jeff- Question about Texas Weather for Easter

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What's the pattern shapping up for Texas for Easter? The local TV mets here are still debating if we get storms/rain on Saturday evening or Sunday morning. What's your take?

I don't think my kids will like another indoor egg hunt for the second year in a row.

[southerngale]

Lots of local Easter egg hunts scheduled for Saturday around here. Family hunts are usually reserved for Sunday afternoon between church services. Unfortunately, locals are predicting now (which could very well change) a good chance of rain for Saturday and Sunday. I'm not sure if it's a late Saturday/early Sunday kind of thing yet as I just checked the website but they show highs in the upper 70's for Saturday and then highs only in the upper 50's for Easter Sunday.

I don't remember the last time we had a cool Easter. My sleeveless Easter dress is gonna look funny now.


Oh, and sorry. I know my name's not Jeff.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I think this is the first time in years we've had Easter in March. I do recall as a kid it being "chilly" on Easter morning on a few occassions.

[CaptinCrunch]

Forecast for Easter across NTX:

Strong cold front will push thru CWA Saturday night and bring a chance for Thunderstorms Saturday night. Easter Sunday looks to be Cloudy with scattered showers and a high's in the upper 50's, strong N winds will make it feel like it's in the 40's for much of the day.

[Brent]

Seems like I remember Easter in March once before... I wish it would be on a SET Sunday each year like the time change or Mother's Day is!

[ETXHAMXYL]

Easter is always the first Sunday after the first full moon after the first day of Spring. That is because Christ was crucified after Passover which the Jewish Calendar is set by the phases of the moon to celebrate the Exodus from Egypt. That is why it is sometimes in March and sometimes in April depending on the moon. Easter should be observed as a Religious Holiday and not set so some merchandise can be sold for longer periods of time. So I say lets observe Holy Days on Holy dates not when it is convenient for our schedules....Just my Christian opinion.
Usually here in TX we have a last blast of coldness on Easter..Sort of a farewell to winter and hello to Spring.
Don't worry Spring doesn' t last too long in TX. Soon we will be wishing for a cool day like Easter during those long 100+days of summer.

[jeff]

I will take a good look into the forecast this evening. I am off on vacation and must work in the yard as the weeds are taking over.

Quick glance at guidance and a few toys, show the next upper trough moving across late Saturday with a strong frontal passage. Models are usually fast with this type of setup, but guidance has been in decent agreement. I will take a look at moisture return and dynamics this later, but they both are looking healthy.

Of note SPC DAY 3 slight risk is up for the ARLATX. Severe threat may be more widespread on Saturday over TX and LA.

Will likely start a new thread on this event this evening.

[jeff]

Not a very clear cut forecast for this weekend as guidance agreement is not the best.

Moisture return will get underway early Thursday as high pressure shifts E and SE winds return. Moisture return will be shallow at first, but will gradually deepen by late Friday as the Gulf fully opens. Trough over the Rockies will progress into the plains and force a cold front into central TX late Friday. Dry line will also advance into S and C TX ahead of the front. Temps. progged to reach the 90-95 range over the Rio Grande plains may break the cap by late afternoon. Severe thunderstorms may also develop over NE TX back into C TX during the early evening as an increasing low level jet and upper air dynamics combine with the slowing front.

Convective developments Friday night will determine the risk areas for Saturday. Surface front should remain stalled over C TX, however convective outflow boundaries may push this boundary southward more than guidance is suggesting. Vort max, heating, and increasing instability should yeild a stromy afternoon and evening over SE, C, and the coastal bend of TX. This is not clear cut and this far out there is much uncertainity

As for Easter Sunday, big storms should be off the coast and into LA by Sunday morning with wrap around clouds and light rain/drizzle over much of TX. Upper low will take most of the day to cross the state, so cloudy with light rain and cool temps. will be the rule. Gusty north winds under CAA regime will make it a raw day.

Again timing issues could shift the expected weather by many hours or even days. Just too far out right now to nail the timing down and the potential severe threat.

JL