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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 251951Z - 252145Z
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTY...ROUGHLY IN AREA BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO/AUSTIN AND JUNCTION. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED...IN THE VICINITY OF STALLING
SURFACE FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING
STILL PRESENT ALOFT. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...CAP WILL WEAKEN. SCATTERED CONVECTION/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED ABOVE CAP...AND
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS MID/UPPER FORCING SPREADS
EASTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SURFACE BASED
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY THE 25/21Z-26/00Z TIME FRAME.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES UP TO 1000 J/KG...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL INCREASE.
..KERR.. 03/25/2005
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
31119960 31489862 31359786 31249673 30499663 29899842
29789930 30440018Any messoscale discussions in your area, go ahead and post 'em.
