MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96...
VALID 271508Z - 271545Z
TORNADO WW 96 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW SHORTLY.
70 TO 90 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
TEXAS COAST. AREA OF FOCUSED HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE /AS EVIDENT IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF RETURN
OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE STRONG WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS AIR MASS OVER INLAND
AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA WARM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
..KERR.. 03/27/2005