When will SE FL get rain again

[boca]

I'm sick of these 95 degree days and no cooling aftternoon thunderstorms to break the heat this is our rainy season I thought. Any thoughts of when the pattern might break for us.

[ronjon]

[quote="boca"]I'm sick of these 95 degree days and no cooling aftternoon thunderstorms to break the heat this is our rainy season I thought. Any thoughts of when the pattern might break for us.[/quote

Very shortly. The remnants of TD10 are forecast to move west over the peninsula during the wed-sat time frame. At the same time, a trough will dive down from the north putting a squeeze play over the peninsula. Add abundant trop moisture with upper level divergence - looks to be a major rain maker even w/o sign trop cyclone development. From NWS Melbourne this PM:

WED-SAT...CONSENSUS OF A WIDE SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
TROPICAL WAVE (REMNANTS OF TD #10) APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WED
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE WAVE POSSIBLY INTERACTS
WITH MID LATITUDE VORT DROPPING S INTO THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CAPS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SFC LOW SHOULD ONE DEVELOP IS
THE WILD CARD ATTM...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AM LOOKING AT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPING LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYS IN VICINITY OF AREA.

[EDR1222]

It has been somewhat dry here in east central Florida too. We get a day of two of rain, then about 5-6 strait days of very hot weather with no precipitation. Not the usual consistency. Hopefully, the T-wave that is out there will get close enough to give at least some areas a little relief.

[HURAKAN]

I feel happy today with the rain. In the afternoon a thunderstorm just sat over my area and 2 inches of rain felt over an hour and a half.

[Recurve]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

GFS, CMC, Euro models all showing a low over or near the Keys/S Fla by 120 hours from the Saturday runs, so Thursday-Friday there's likely to be a lot more moisture and dynamics around to fuel rain, probably a longer rain event than typical afternoon convection. It appears that the models aren't really depicting the wave/former TD 10 as reaching south florida, as much as they are showing high pressure retreating northward and low pressure developing locally (maybe with an assist from the juicy Caribbean wave). At that point the models also show no threat to Florida from the current east Atlantic wave, which evaporates or moves up into a weakness in the Atlantic high.

Might be nice to have a two-day rain, but we don't need a flooding event or a TS storm exactly. Rainfall has been much more regular this year than last it seems.

[jlauderdal]

I'm sick of these 95 degree days and no cooling aftternoon thunderstorms to break the heat this is our rainy season I thought. Any thoughts of when the pattern might break for us.

MAYBE mid-week as the ridge breaks down a bit but this is not a slam dunk by any means.

[gatorcane]

if there is no rain for a while, mother nature has a way of evening things out...a tropical disturbance is a good way to do this.

[boca]

Question is when?

[gatorcane]

Question is when?

The wave moving our way has a good chance, I really thought it was going to get stronger than it has...

[artist]

this is from this mornings Miami discussion-

ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE PROMISES A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK. 06Z GFS SHOWS CONTINUED VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT WHICH COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
OF COURSE...IT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AS WELL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. REMAINS
THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EASTERN END OF THIS
RIDGE HAS ERODED A LITTLE AND MAYBE BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD HAVE OUR
ZONES UNDER A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. THIS WOULD TAKE US OUT OF THE
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING. IN THE MEANTIME THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL MOVING WEST AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF US BY
PRE-DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. SEE NO REASON THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WEST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WE
ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TODAY SO THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG. THUS WILL PUT PROBABILITIES IN
TO MATCH YESTERDAYS COVERAGE. BY MID WEEK WE SHOULD BE IN A BROAD
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL HAVE
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THAT TIME. BY LATE IN THE WEEK
THE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HELP REBUILD AN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE PENINSULA.

SO TROPICAL WAVE IMPACT MAINLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

[jabber]

Question is when?

The wave moving our way has a good chance, I really thought it was going to get stronger than it has...

It still has time. It crawling. Lots of nice, warm water ahead of it.

[Jim Cantore]

Well boca a high pressure has been sitting over you discourageing afternoon storms

that doesnt help

[gatorcane]

it was the high pressure sitting near S. Florida last week and this past week/weekend a deep easterly flow has kept the storm well west of the SE coast of FL...but it does look like better rain chances later this week with the wave/trough setup scenario...this would cause slow moving storms to fire even over coastal SE FL.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is now drier here in southeast Florida due to a trough moving through and a building ridge. Drier air is moving in, making the afternoon and daily thunderstorms more isolated, although they are happening.

I've noticed this topic hasn't been updated in quite a while so I decided to reply here.

[Scorpion]

Very dry here. I like it. The last hurrahs of the summer season, although summer here lasts til November.