What Happened To The Monsoon?

[riverratmike]

Well, it's been a official 7 days and no storms to be seen. Just a few clouds in the sky in the afternoon. This time last year the monsoon was in full swing here in Lake Havasu City, AZ. Anyone have a forcast or a idea what the monsoon is going to do the rest of the season?

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, the monsoon ended last year on August 20th-it was the earliest end on record. Right now, we are in a break which is to be expected since we have been in monsoon conditions since July 18th and breaks are part of a monsoon. A return of sorts is expected next week mainly for SE AZ but this late in the season, it may not be a strong return.

Steve

[riverratmike]

Actually, the monsoon ended last year on August 20th-it was the earliest end on record. Right now, we are in a break which is to be expected since we have been in monsoon conditions since July 18th and breaks are part of a monsoon. A return of sorts is expected next week mainly for SE AZ but this late in the season, it may not be a strong return.

Steve

we do have a chance of t-storms Wed though the weekend. So I'm keeping my hopes up that it we will get a few more good storms before the monsoon moves out.

[Aslkahuna]

We had a nice dumper today and now have both July AND August with above normal rainfall-first time since 1999.

Steve

[riverratmike]

well looks like the monsoon has returned to LHC as of last night about 3am. There was a isolated t-storm about 10 miles from me. Lots of lightning, and currently right now 6pm Tues there is a thunderstorm just to the NW of me. Again lots of lightning and you can really see the rain coming down.

[Aslkahuna]

The heart of the monsoon is where it should be-in SE AZ where Tucson got nailed big time this morning and we had decent rain down here as well. The streams are flowing and the mountains are green and the grasslands are prospering. Over 10 inches of rain here at the house since July 17th-not too shabby.

Steve

[riverratmike]

wow that's alot of rain. We have had around 4 to 5 inches here. So when is it determined the end of the AZ monsoon. Any predictions for this year. Just curious.

[Aslkahuna]

The end of the monsoon occurs when the westerlies take over at all levels and become persistent and the dewpoint drops below the magic number. Since monsoon breaks can last a week at times, this pattern has to persist longer than a week. In my outlook I was going for the first week in September but that may be a little late since the pattern developing right now is more of an early September pattern.

Steve

[riverratmike]

The end of the monsoon occurs when the westerlies take over at all levels and become persistent and the dewpoint drops below the magic number. Since monsoon breaks can last a week at times, this pattern has to persist longer than a week. In my outlook I was going for the first week in September but that may be a little late since the pattern developing right now is more of an early September pattern.

Steve

Interesting, thanks for the info. Just uploaded some photos from the monsson storms to my photo website. Check it out if you get a chance. http://www.fototime.com/users/riverratmike@yahoo.com

[Aslkahuna]

The pattern that is developing this weekend is a typical end of monsoon type pattern. The E-W STR is splitting with one center progressing east ahead of the trough carving out over the Central US while the other is sliding west just south of the crossover line and will be taking up residence off the CA coast. This will bring NW flow to AZ which will dry us out and push the monsoonal flow south. Because we have a lot of low level moisture present, it will be a couple of days before we totally dry out but I expect that all activity will be gone by early next week.

Steve

[arizonasooner]

Had some nice rain here in north Glendale today. About 3/4 inch at my house, according to Maricopa County FCD rain gauges...

This has been a wet year, if not a wet monsoon....

[riverratmike]

well just heard on the Arizona news this evening that the monsoon is out of here as of this coming weekend. 2004 was way more active as far as cloud to ground strikes go in my area. Had some good storms here in LHC 2005 but not as much as last year. I did capture a few good lightning strikes here and around my home. Hope next year will be a little more active.

[Aslkahuna]

Yep, although we are getting good rain here tonight we are expecting that the trough will effectively end the 'soon for us on Saturday. It's been the best one for us since 2000.

Steve