First cold front of the season!

[azsnowman]

Well, it appears the first strong cold front, maybe not THAT cold, is coming in off the Pacific this week!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 052207 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST MON SEP 05 2005 .SYNOPSIS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A SOMEWHAT STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SETTING UP THE BATTLE OF THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN DRY AND STABLE AIR TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LOOKS LIKE FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL BE LAPPING UP AGAINST THE MOGOLLON RIM BUT AT THE SAME TIME A DRY AND WARM CAP OF SOUTHWEST AIR WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (30 PERCENT) WITH ONLY ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES ARIZONA AND APPEARS TO PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE CORRECT EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY (ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERLIES). BEYOND FRIDAY/SATURDAY MODELS HINTING TOWARD A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY PUNCH. AS A RESULT...ZERO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

[azsnowman]

I'm ready for some cooler temps..........

http://www.noaa.gov/fgz

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT BY SATURDAY NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE EPAC...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. H7 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT COOL FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CK

[f5]

how about some mountain snow to go along with it?

[azsnowman]

how about some mountain snow to go along with it?

A LITTLE too early just yet.....pretty soon The first snow here in town is *usually* the last week in October, now up in the *higher* country, it's about 7 weeks away where has this YEAR GONE?

ANYWAYS....getting the first hint of the cold front as I post this, winds kickin' up to 20 MPH!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 081639 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 945 AM MST THU SEP 08 2005 .SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY BRINGING A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. && .DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS AND ZFP TO REFLECT CURRENT SITUATION. MORNING SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THAT PW HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH NEAR SATURATION THROUGH THE MID LEVELS RESULTING IN SOME HIGH BASED STRATIFORM-TYPE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AIR IS BEING REPLACED WITH A MORE MOIST AIR MASS BUT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT YET AS SATURATED AS IN THE EAST...THUS CHANCES OF PCPN ARE A BIT LOWER IN THESE ZONES. FOR FRIDAY...EPAC TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS NRN AZ FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE EAST...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SOME STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FARTHER WEST...THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED DYNAMIC FORCING AND UPWARD MOTION. IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND STRONG CONVECTION. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

[azsnowman]

Check out the temps on Tues thru Thurs.....

http://www.noaa.gov/fgz

For: The White Mountains
Issued: September 09, 2005 03:56:23 MST

Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may contain hail...gusty winds...and heavy rain. Light and variable winds becoming southwest up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 70 above 7000 feet...72 to 78 below 7000 feet.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may contain hail...gusty winds...and heavy rain. West winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Lows around 49 above 7000 feet...around 56 below 7000 feet.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Light and variable winds becoming southwest up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 69 above 7000 feet...70 to 76 below 7000 feet.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Southwest winds up to 15 mph and gusty in the evening becoming light. Lows 42 to 48 above 7000 feet...around 51 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Light and variable winds. Highs 60 to 68 above 7000 feet...69 to 75 below 7000 feet.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 38 to 44 above 7000 feet...43 to 49 below 7000 feet.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 59 to 67 above 7000 feet...68 to 74 below 7000 feet.

Monday night: Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 37 to 43 above 7000 feet...around 46 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 59 to 67 above 7000 feet...68 to 74 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Lows 36 to 42 above 7000 feet.. 43 to 49 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 60 to 68 above 7000 feet...69 to 75 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear. Lows 36 to 42 above 7000 feet.. 42 to 48 below 7000 feet.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 61 to 71 above 7000 feet...71 to 77 below 7000 feet.