El Nino

[Greyghost]

What if any effect has El Nino played on Florida's weather this year? Increase/Decrease in Hurricanes - Increase/Decrease in parcipitation?

[JBG]

What if any effect has El Nino played on Florida's weather this year? Increase/Decrease in Hurricanes - Increase/Decrease in parcipitation?

Even though officially we're in weak El Nino/neutral territory, my own theory is that the weather's behaving like "La Nina" weather:

<li>Lots of hurricanes, vigorous ones too;</li><li>Hot weather in most of country, including Northeast;</li><li>Strong Bermuda High;</li><li>Droughty conditions in Northeast</li>

I spoke with some Peruvians in my area who have relatives back home. They confirm that their local weather is cold, which is typical of La Nina conditions (not surprising since La Nina means their ocean is cold). Also, their fisheries are apparently doing well, also a La Nina characteristic.

Somehow I think this is being missed by the NOAA. Any thoughts?

[Aslkahuna]

They aren't missing it-it's that the cooling of the water and the increase in the easterlies are quite up to cold phase criteria and that they expect conditions to become more neutral in the coming months. Our monsoon here was more like a Post Niño one than a Niña one.

Steve

[JBG]

They aren't missing it-it's that the cooling of the water and the increase in the easterlies are quite up to cold phase criteria and that they expect conditions to become more neutral in the coming months. Our monsoon here was more like a Post Niño than a Niña one.

Steve

I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying that the current water temps off Peru are in the Nina range by are warming? Also, how is a Post Niño monsoon in Arizona different from a La Niña monsoon? (and also, how do you make the "tilda" over the "n" in "niño"?)?

[Aslkahuna]

First, the difference between monsoons. Post Niño monsoons tend to start late, are erratic in terms of rainfall distribution and tend to have a lot of severe weather. Monsoons during Niña conditions tend to start early, end late and are very wet with not much severe weather. The criteria for the various phases of the ENSO are described in the ENSO site run by CPC. We are at near Niña condtions but the cooling has not progressed far enough but be called a Niña and the conditions are expected to become neutral this Winter. You can get a lot of characters by holding down the ALT plus a number code in numeric pad. For example ALT164 is ñ, ALT143
is Å, ALT130 is é ALT56 is £ ALT0176 is ° and ALT140 is î. You can even get the Greek Letters.

Steve

[JBG]

We are at near Niña condtions but the cooling has not progressed far enough but be called a Niña and the conditions are expected to become neutral this Winter.

So technically are we neutral or still in Niño?

[Aslkahuna]

The latest diagnostic had us in neutral conditions. The SSTA's are neutral to near Niña at this time. The forecast is for neutral but I would watch the indices closely because we could tip to a cold phase event if those cold SSTA's consolidate and get stronger with other indications. Have to remember that this past Winter's Niño was not typical in that the cold anomalies were place off the S.A. coast much of the time. What this shows is that sometimes the classice definitions don't work.

Steve

[JBG]

Have to remember that this past Winter's Niño was not typical in that the cold anomalies were place off the S.A. coast much of the time. What this shows is that sometimes the classic definitions don't work.

Steve

Interesting. The Northeast US had classic weak Niño conditions much of the winter; persistently cold and wet. We did not have any of the "ridgy" types of conditions, i.e. warm and dry periods.

[Geomagnetic Man]

Global change might be happening, so thats why the el nino, and la nina indices are not working much anymore. weak el nino last year, and early this year brought more rain than the stronger el nino of 1997-1998

Jake

[JBG]

Global change might be happening, so thats why the el nino, and la nina indices are not working much anymore. weak el nino last year, and early this year brought more rain than the stronger el nino of 1997-1998

Jake

Depends on where you are. This past winter had less precipitation in the Northeast than 1997-98. Weak El Ninos in the Northeast commonly bring much in the way of storminess, but without the overwhelming invasions of warm air that typified 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98.

[JBG]

Global change might be happening, so thats why the el nino, and la nina indices are not working much anymore. weak el nino last year, and early this year brought more rain than the stronger el nino of 1997-1998

Jake

Actually, they're working the way they did in the 1950's and 1960's, the heart of the last "cold phase" of the PDO.