Not Good, Not Good at All!!

[Aslkahuna]

Both the Aspen Fire and the fire in the Rincons SE of Tucson appear to have blown up with the smoke plumes visible from here in Sierra Vista despite the fact that the fire in the Rincons is 50 or so miles away and the one on Mt. Lemmon over 70 miles distant. Visually the plumes resemble erupting volcanoes and at times the pyrocumuli have been massive. The temperatures remain in the 90-100F range in the lower elevations with RH below 15% and winds gusting over 30mph (obviously stronger on ridgetop) and expected to be stronger tomorrow. . The attached photo was shot from Sierra Vista and shows the two smoke plumes


The Aspen fire plume is just to the right of the leftmost light standard. The Aspen fire is human caused which has residents chased out of Summerhaven incensed-they want all rec activity on the mountain stopped now. The fire in the Rincons was a lightning start. The Aspen plume shows up on the radars from TUS, PHX and FLG as well as one Hi-Res visual satellite imagery (along with another plume further north.

Steve
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[Aslkahuna]

The latest news from the Aspen Fire.

Over 600 boys and girls attending a Boy Scout and LDS Girls Camp on Mt. Lemmon have been evacuated safely.

Fire crews digging lines in the Marshall Gulch area were pulled out for safety reasons when winds hit 40mph and the fire crowned.

The fire has entered Summerhaven and KVOA-4 news reports that 200 structures have been destroyed but that 6 homes in the Loma Linda area have been saved.

The NWR transmitter on Mt. Lemmon has been disabled (there is also a small observatory belonging to the UofA on the mountain).

The fire which was under 500 acres in size last night as now covered 7000 acres.

Steve

[Arizwx]

Sad News:
Over half of Summerhaven has been destroyed by the Aspen Fire.More are expected to be engulfed by Flames Upsloping the Gulch from Marshall
to Box Canyons..my prog of SSW winds of 30+ verified.
El Conquistador Update"Oro Valley,AZ
Larry Humphery Press Conference"
Winds Spotted across the Marshall Gulch Trail..too dangerous to stay as Winds and Crowning with winds over 42mph..Firefighters removed"
Incident Cmmdr that Significant Damage and loss occurred and is ocurring
Sorrow....
Coronado Natl Forst Supervisor:
Noon the winds increased from 30-40+ from SW and Summerhaven
At 13:40PDT..Firefighters removed..as Fire moved into Summerhaven..no idea of how much damage was done...poss 3-4 days.
Firefighters remained close...but were helpless..Hotshot crews knelt and prayed.
April Brown..Red Cross Tucson can be contacted for assisstance to families...Firestorm Confirmed.
....End; 17:17PDT 19JUN03

[Arizwx]

Gonna need some help Steve(Kahuna).
This is worse than I thought.I appears an A-Bomb has hit the Summit some 22nm to mt NNE.
It appears as if the PyroCloud has capped and underswlred at apprx 12-13k Feet asl.I am at roughly 3Kft.
The Smoke Cloud is headed toward Casa Grande and S maricopa Co..possibly visable to S PHX some 90-100mi NNW.
There also is a Fire related CB(Thunderhead)peeking over the main cloud mass some 40nm North of me...I have a PERFECT view of the events as they happen as I live at the base of the Mountain...
I will be up this eve all night with updates....if you need me I have Yahoo and msn as 'Intrepidsail'AOL as well.
I am VERY concerned that there have been numerous explosions in and around Summerhaven...Natural gas..LP Gas/Paints/Chemicals,as well as old PCB laden Power infrastructure from the 1940s and 1950s.
The Cooler air aloft above the peak should force a reverse wind profile from Upslope to Downslope to ValleySlope..which near a major metro area of nealry one million(TUS)..we will have MAJOR AIR PROBLEMS!
Already,the Ozone numbers are over marginal..from Heat/Thermal indices..howver stiff breezes to 40kt have cleared out the previous smoke ash incursion from Tues Night,This will be very hazerdous to tens of thousands of TUS Metro Residents on respirators,asthma,smoke,non hospitalized Ambulatory Patients.NorthWest Hospital some 10mi from here is on FULL ALERT with diversions to as far away as PHX,Las Vegas and San Diego..Helo AirMedivac now looking at AvWx situation with limited vis and smoke plus.TIA may divert commercial Jet heavys(757/747/767,etc) to El Paso if PHX LAS LAX OR SFO are hammered..ABQ is on Center with LAX for full diversions to DEN/DFW if needed.
Depending on the wind profile..it appears I here in Oro Valley will take the brunt of the Smoke..
Let me know how the H-5 Hpa3 are looking pre sunset if possible..it dies NOT look good for Ol Arizwx.
Thx..DJ

[wx247]

Oh my goodness. I did not realize it was serious as this. I haven't seen any news coverage on it like last year. :o Stay safe guys and keep us updated please.

[Stormsfury]

Man, I hope for you all out in Arizona that the monsoon starts early and is lot more beneficial than your grim prediction, Steve ...

[ColdFront77]

Same here, Garrett. No mention of these fires on the national news. Allan Colmes just said (minute ago) on Hannity & Colmes [Hannity is off tonight]... that "this upcoming fire season is upon us....."

They are discussing the topic right now.

[Stephanie]

Wow! This is terrible! I don't know what to say other than I'll keep my fingers crossed for precipitation and a quick containment. AZ is in my prayers right now!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hope that fire gets contained soon. That's bad. Drought, lightning, and wind are not good combinations in these pats. Even area lakes in the southwestern US is very low. I'll know about that all too well when I see it first hand next month.

Jim

[azsnowman]

My God.......how sad, my prayers are with those who lost there homes, I am so sorry to hear about this, I just walked in the door.

Dennis

[weatherlover427]

Oh no, this is very bad news. I sure hope you get the monsoons started ASAP! :o I also pray for the families who are being affected by this tragic and drastic fire situation.

[Aslkahuna]

First the Good News: The ski resort on Mt. Lemmon appears to have escaped the flames. The acerage reported by KVOA-4 at 5pm was in error the acerage of the fire is now around 1500 acres. Napolitano was on TV and the State is marshalling resources and the National Guard has been put on alert. Fire crews are planning to go back in as soon as they can. The fire is burning close to the Bullock burn from last year so that may form a defense line.

Now the Bad News: The outlook for tomorrow weather-wise is grim with Red Flag warnings out for much of the state. High winds are expected tomorrow (todays winds gusted as high as 60mph on the mountain) along with low humidity though temperatures are expected to cool somewhat over the weekend. What is worrisome in the 105kt wind max at H3 plowing into the back side of the trough. In the higher elevations, winds tend to hang in there longer than in the Valleys when we have a system come through. As AZ reported there have been propane tank and other explosions in Summerhaven adding to the disaster there a helicopter crew from PHX reported actually seeing the tanks explode from the air. These explosions also posed a hazard to the crews fighting the fire. The fire in the Rincons has overtopped the ridge and is descending towards the northern San Pedro River Valley. Dense smoke from the fires is posing a health hazard to people living downwind and this includes, besides Oro Valley, the town of Oracle. Napolitano reported that on the day that the Aspen fire started, there were a total of 94 fire starts in Arizona (mostly due to lightning) so things are really tinderbox ready to burn-and the GFS shows no monsoon until sometime after July 5th.

Steve

[M2]

I didn't see your other fire thread Steve - sorry. I posted also at the other one. Your photo is amazing in that you can see both plumes from over 100+ miles away to the Southeast of Tuc.

Summerhaven has lost 200+ houses; Mt. Lemmon Ski Valley is now threatened as of 10:45pm MST Thursday night. We have continous coverage up here with some crews down at El Conquistador and Sabino Canyon plus the Command Post with updates. The fire topped THE Mt. Lemmon, burnt down the backside, the wind shifted and now it's burning back UP another side! They Ski Valley with Lodge/Restaurant/Ski Lift are now threatened to the SW of Summerhaven. Spent most of my Arizona outdoor time up there - hiking, camping, fishing, everything....it's as close as one can get to a 'backyard' since we really don't have 'yards' out here. It was a bit of Canada in the heart of the Sonoran Desert - - Gone.
Dennis, I really commiserate with your evac last summer; glad you still have a home to go back to.


Photo courtesy of AZStarnet



Photo courtesy of KTVK Channel 13 Tucson

[southerngale]

Oh no! I'll keep everyone in that area in my prayers. This is too sad.

[azsnowman]

My God, what chilling memories this brings up, we were in Linden at the Fire Dept when the Rodeo came up over Juniper Ridge and burned into Timberland Acres, we witnessed propane tanks explode etc.

We have heavy smoke this morning from the Aspen Fire, don't know the exact mileage from there but it's a long way!!!!

As Steve said, Red Flag warnings up for the whole state this a.m., like the name of this thread, not good, not good at ALL! Say a little prayer for us folks, with the Aspen outta control and the other 8 fires, God only knows what today will bring!

Dennis

[mf_dolphin]

I saw the forecast on GMA calling for 50-60 mph winds and low moisture. "Not Good, Not Good at all" is right!

[Garnetcat5]

My prayers to all in the path of this fire....What a frightening event! Stay safe AZ and all in that area.

[Colin]

Sounds really bad... I hope the firefighters get these fires contained very, very soon! :o I am hearing that 250+ homes have been destroyed... Very sad news indeed.

[pojo]

I hope you guys and your families stay safe. With Red Flag warnings, the fire will be extremely hard to contain! I hope you don't have to evacuate your homes.

[azsnowman]

I've got sustained winds of 21 gusting to over 32 now and the worst winds are not forecast until later this afternoon. Watching the morning news and the news choppers, the winds are just now kicking up over the Aspen and the pyro's from what it looked like are just starting to form.

Pretty ironic, this is the EXACT same conditions as last year at this time, winds in excess of 40 mph and a huge fire.........

Dennis