Evansville repeat scenario?

[conestogo_flood]

I was watching The Weather Network this morning and they were talking about the Evansville tornado. They later went on and talked about the unusually warm temperatures in the USA currently, and the unusually strong cold front pushing into the warm temperatures. They even mentioned this could be a repeat situation of the same disturbance that caused the Evansville tornado. Then, I turned to CNN and while watching Chad Meyers, the CNN met, said the same thing too. This got me feeling a little uneasy, so I went to the SPC website and found this for tomorrow:




Someone who knows what they are talking about, what do you get of this?

[weunice]

I take the SPC outlooks pretty seriously. They really are getting quite good at it ... for example compare this outlook that I saved with what happened afterwards:

[conestogo_flood]

Oops, I think you may have miss-understood what I was asking. I mean, what does the probability of a tornado scenario repeat look like for tomorrow?

[jhamps10]

as someone who lives 55 miles nw of evansville I sure hope and pray that this does not happen. Evansville Metrologists (which predicted the twister dead on I may add) are saying that this is a more of a central indiana threat (indy, terre haute, carmel) and that twisters are not as likely as what happened on sat.night-sun.morning. I hope that this proves true, but one good thing about this, you can not get a single NOAA weather radio at all at radio shack, walmart anywhere!!!

[Weatherfreak14]

Yeah, I've been listening to the forcasts and tthey say a same possible scenario could set up.

[jhamps10]

I do think that we could get a repeat situation here, the storms wait till 3 or 4 to develop like on sat, and get stronger overnight. Do i want this to happen? HECK NO!!!! I do think that it may just do this. we are in a spring time weather pattern, and I like what someone said on Sunday, about Twisters in the Fall-Winter, when we get very unseasonbaly warm and we have a cold front coming with it's REALLY cold air, we need to automatically look out for a torando.

[therock1811]

Disclaimer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Keep an eye to the skies, everyone in the Ohio Valley. I do think we see somewhat the same scenario tonight.My thinking on timing of the best threat as of right now:

Line from South Bend, IN to Paducah, KY (including Evansville, IN) - now-6pm
Indianapolis, IN to Louisville, KY to Bowling Green, KY - 6-11pm
Dayton, Ohio to Cincinnati, OH to Lexington, KY - 11pm to 4am

I would tell you that several areas in Ohio have already seen severe storms this afternoon. However, I think that since these are scattered in nature, it won't do much to re-stabilize the atmosphere, so I do expect that we will see severe weather in these locations tonight.

[conestogo_flood]

Tomorrow, I appear to be under a 25% risk of severe weather in the severe weather outlooks on the SPC website, also I heard on our news station this morning that tomorrow could bring supercell structured storms with possible tornadoes over lower southern Ontario. Could the similar situation looking to be setting up today appear to be setting up for tomorrow as well? I am a little worried, people around here have let the tornadic thoughts in their minds dissipate, so a sudden tornado tomorrow could really surprise a lot of people, and our lack of a public warning system could spell disaster.

[jhamps10]

I think we should have done this thread today. Here's an except from the 5AM AFD from NWS paducah.

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW OVER WRN MO TUE
MORNING WILL DEEPEN AND EJECT RAPIDLY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY TUE EVENING. TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. THIS SETUP HAS MANY
SIMILARITIES TO THE ONE THAT RESULTED IN THE SVR WX / TORNADO
OUTBREAK LAST SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. THE ENTIRE AREA IS
OUTLOOKED IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

isobar. looks like we are going to have ourselves a busy day tommorow looking at the skies for storms.

[isobar]

You know what jhamps, all day today I'm telling people that we're in store for more severe weather tomorrow, and no one had any clue. I'm amazed at how quickly they forget and stop watching the weather forecasts.

Stay safe up there in Flora ... and also everyone else in the risk areas.

[jhamps10]

I will, stay safe down there in Newburgh. hey if the power goes out, put the radio to 99.,5 WKDQ or 92.5 Wbkr as they ALWAYS simlcast news25 during severe weather.

[isobar]

Thanks for the radio info. I should know that stuff, but I'm ashamed to admit - not.

Just heard Greg Forbes say this outbreak is shaping up like the Nov 2002 one. Over 70 tornadoes, including the Van Wert, OH F4.
Oh boy.

[jhamps10]

just what I wanted to hear, NOT!! I hope this is not like the van wert outbreak.

[Skywatch_NC]

I remember scenes from that Van Wert tornado...for ie. the destroyed movie theater where several peeps were injured and/or killed!!