Severe weather outbreak for Monday night/tuesday.

[jhamps10]

SPC has a moderate severe weather risk in most of the western ohio valley.

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 140711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RUE SLO
HUF IND 40 WSW DAY LUK LEX TCL MEI JAN LLQ RUE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
BPT GLS 55 SSW CLL TPL ACT 30 SSE MLC SGF VIH STL DEC CGX GRR FNT
MTC CLE CAK PKB CRW TRI HSS ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC SYR BGM
CXY 35 W DCA RIC 40 SSW ECG 15 SSE EWN ILM CRE 45 SE AGS MCN DHN 55
WSW PFN ...CONT... 70 W COT 30 NNW DAL 45 S CQB TUL 60 NNE JLN MKC
BIE GRI 25 E ONL FSD RWF MSP EAU AUW 45 NNW TVC 55 E APN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL
INDIANA...SRN IL...SERN MO...CENTRAL/ERN AR...CENTRAL/NRN
MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/NRN AL...CENTRAL/WRN KY...EXTREME SWRN
OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SRN
LOWER MI...

CORRECTED FOR TRANSPOSED HEADLINES

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH FCST OVER CENTRAL CONUS
AND MS VALLEY REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EWD INTO PACIFIC NW AND BC THROUGH PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER ROCKIES OF BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER IA
BY AROUND 16/00Z. BROAD FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WILL SHIFT/AMPLIFY SWD ACROSS TX AND
SEWD TO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

AT SFC...CYCLOGENESIS NOW UNDERWAY OVER SRN SASK/NERN MT WILL RESULT
IN STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS DAY-1...AND
ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD.
DRYLINE -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NE TX SWD ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO
JUST W DRT -- MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD BY START OF PERIOD AND WILL
ACT AS SWRN BOUND FOR TSTMS BACKBUILDING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
CYCLONE ON OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MOVE FROM WRN OZARKS REGION
AT 15/12Z TOWARD SRN LM AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING DAY...ITSELF
OCCLUDING INVOF ERN LOWER MI BY 16/12Z. CURRENT FRONTAL ZONE THAT
HAS STALLED FROM MID TN SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION IS FCST TO
RETURN NWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG WARM FRONT FROM LATE DAY-1
THROUGH DAY-2 PERIODS...E OF DEEPENING SFC LOW.

...E TX TO LOWER MI AND GA/AL...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH NUMEROUS
TOTAL REPORTS. THIS IS PRIMARILY AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND
SCENARIO...BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS EXPECTED
ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY...SOME SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE WIND AND/OR TORNADO EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERLAP OF LARGEST PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE
AREA REPRESENTS AREA WHERE STRONGEST KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED
TO JUXTAPOSE WITH WEAK TO MDT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...AND AS WARM FRONT RETREATS RAPIDLY NWD.

LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN RICH
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN 14/00Z RAOBS FROM LIX AND DRT...06Z SFC
ANALYSIS AND LATEST GPS PW DATA. PLUMES OF SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
60S F NOW ARE ANALYZED INLAND -- AND 70S OVER MOST OF OPEN WRN GULF.
EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY LATE DAY-1 INTO DAY-2
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT OVER WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER MS DELTA REGION
TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG N OF OH RIVER. HOWEVER...INTENSE DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH WINDS
ABOVE 50 KT JUST OFF SFC AND UPWARD THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. LARGE/LONG
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PRESENCE OF SBCAPE AND STRENGTH OF FLOW
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND OVER BROAD SWATH
FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH INDIANA/OH...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS
LOWER MI.

ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR -- AHEAD OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE LINE -- HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DISCRETE AND
FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE
STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND
CAPPING AHEAD OF FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH SHOULD BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUCH TSTMS TO DEVELOP. NRN
PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD WEAKEN DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES
AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF SEVERE THREAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO
MID TN AND PORTIONS GA/AL.

..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2005

[jhamps10]

I am putting in the SPC 17Z 2 day severe weather forcast graphics.




Looking at this map, it makes you think this is late april, and not Mid November. this is kinda freaking me out.

[wxmann_91]

I've gathered a plethora of AFD's and HWO's.

NWS PADUCAH:

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT ENTERS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI JUST AFTER NOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 6 OR 7 PM.

ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER
AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND
THEREFORE LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
WIND FIELDS IN THE NORTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OR
FORM INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS IF THEY FORM A LINE...BUT A FEW
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEAR
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXIST AFTER THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE BAND OF QPF SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG FORCING
AND TREMENDOUS WIND FIELDS...A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHES
EASTWARD. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY. THE 12Z MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST
JUST AFTER 18Z AND WILL END IN THE EAST 00-03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NWS MEMPHIS:

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY
NOON TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE GREATEST THREATS. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. ALSO...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE TORNADOES. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EAST ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AROUND 4 OR 5 PM...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA BY ABOUT 9 PM ON TUESDAY.

ALL SIGNS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ON TUESDAY. LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3 TO -4...MU CAPES OF
1000-2000...0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR 500 AND 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 200-
300. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO BE OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z ON
TUESDAY...ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 22Z...AND OUT OF THE
CWA AROUND 03Z.

NWS JACKSON:

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN THIS REGION...ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...WITH A
LESSER RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR WILL BE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND STORMS WITHIN THIS LINE
WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME SEVERE. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...WHERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP.

PERSONS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS
AND OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. NOW IS THE
TIME TO MAKE YOUR PLAN OF ACTION FOR WHEN SEVERE WEATHER
APPROACHES.

BASED ON THE PAST FEW GFS/NAM/UKMET MODEL RUNS...WE BELIEVE THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL EXIST ABOVE VERY RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTN OVER AR/LA AND REACH ABOUT A NATCHEZ TO GREENWOOD LINE
BY 6 PM. THE NAM ETA FORECASTS 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25KTS
JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...BUT GREATER VALUES ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF HWY 82 WHERE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE NAM IS ALSO A BIT DISCONCERTING IN SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE HWY 25 CORRIDOR
NE OF JACKSON FROM MID TO LATE AFTN. THIS BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS
ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WOULD POSE PROBLEMS BY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NOT MUCH UNLIKE WHAT IS
HAPPENING THIS AFTN OVER NE MS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE
WILL NOT WASTE TIME MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND
SHOULD EXIT EAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NWS LOUISVILLE:

THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THIS
LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE NEAR I-65 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 9 PM EST.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...ACTIVE WX OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTN/EVE...

(clipped)

MAJOR FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODEL DATA IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH BRINGING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND THEN SHUNTING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION HAS
COME AROUND TONIGHT AND IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS OVERALL EVENT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
NOVEMBER 2002 OUTBREAK.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC WARM FRONT PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM TO BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 12 TUE. WARM
FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
AVAILABLE PBL FORCING AND THE AMOUNT OF CAPPING. A QUICK LOOK AT
THE BUFKIT DATA FROM THE GFS AND NAM RUNS THIS EVENING SHOW A WEAKLY
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD STRONG FORCING BE
PRESENT AND STORMS GET GOING...THE WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR INDICATED THE
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER MODE WILL THEN SHIFT TO A
LINEAR PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT APPEARS LIKELY. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS OUTLINED THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

NWS NASHVILLE:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A VIGOROUS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND STRONG WIND FIELDS DEVELOP.
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING WIND DAMAGE...HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR AT ANY TIME TUESDAY...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A SQUALL LINE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...AND PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.

ON TUESDAY...A WARM...BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THEN...BY LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...A SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD. STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS LINE OF POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS. THE SVR ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR
THE PLATEAU PORTION OF MIDDLE TN AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

[TS Zack]

They may have to up that to high. If you live anywhere in this area get ready for some Severe T' Storms. This one is going to be bad!

[isobar]

Here we go again! You know it's serious when you see hatched areas on a DAY2 Outlook!

Hang in there ya'll, and stay safe.

Donna

[Weatherfreak14]

Yeah this I'm thinkin will be a serious severe weather outbreak with tornados.

[conestogo_flood]

EDIT

[jhamps10]

Thanks, I got this strange feeling that this could be a bad one. just as bad as may 30th of last year. Isobar, I saw Wayne's forcast at 5 and looks like it's an ALL day threat tommorow. All I can say is, there probeley will be a high risk area put in tommorow morning.

[breeze]

My weather radio is going to work with me, tomorrow! I
checked the Nashville NWS site today at lunch, and, that
forecast was pretty much cut and dry. My office manager
doesn't half pay attention to my weather warnings, so, I
printed it off and just handed it to her.

Got her attention, as well!

[jhamps10]

you guys missed NWS lincoln,IL afd:


000
FXUS63 KILX 142050
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
ILLINOIS...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME TOGETHER WELL AT 12Z RUN. 18Z NAM
UPDATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS, BUT STILL SAME TRACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOW TO MOVE ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY. IN THE LONG
RANGE...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NW AND 2 SYSTEMS TO MOVE OVER REGION
AND REINFORCE COLD AIR, ONE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONE ON SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
18Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER TN TO AR AREA WITH
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT EXTENDED NORTH INTO CWA.
THIS PRECIPTITATION IS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN NE TO SE KS. THIS WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ALL OF THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE SE. IN THE SE...ADDITIONAL WARM FRONTAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL DEVELOP AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHS.

FOR THE TUESDAY POSSIBLE SEVERE EVENT...THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE IS
THE 140 KNOT UPPER JET SEEN IN THE NW US IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA.
THIS JET WILL DIG A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT, AND
INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT...MOVING THE LOW TO W OF STL BY
TUESDAY AT 12Z. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE OVER THE CWA TO SW
OF CHICAGO BY 00Z. THE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CAPES WILL BE LOW, BUT WITH STRONG
SHEAR AND GOOD LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE EVENT ON THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF REGION, MADE LITTEL CHANGES, WITH WRAP AROUND LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES TO MOVE NW
WITH UPPER MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. 2 SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE NW FLOW, ONE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY. BOTH
INCREASE THE CLOUDS AND BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.
THE SATURDAY WAVE CAUSES A UPPER TROUGH TO DEEP INTO REGION EAST OF
IL. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES IN WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW ON LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS.
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

[conestogo_flood]

Everyone in the to be affected region. Good luck, and God Bless. I sure hope everything isn't as bad as it can be. Remember to listen to the weather radio, if at work, select a location to go in a tornado. Listen for the sirens if the power goes out, and go to shelter immediatly if there is a tornado coming.

Be sure to tell your kids about it for when they are in school. Design a plan, meeting area to go if anything happens. Tell your friends, not everyone checks these outlooks. If you don't have a weather radio, get out and buy one now! Get flashlights ready, clear the basement, or a good location in your home to go in a tornado. Prepare now, you may only have seconds of warning tomorrow.

Mike

[jkt21787]

It is important to note the lack of cloud cover tonight in the Warm Sector across SW TN, MS, AR, and AL. If convection doesn't develop tonight to create a large cloud debris in the warm sector, then sunshine will be more abundant tomorrow, and this situation will be much more serious than currently anticipated, and almost certainly a high risk event.

Even if cloud cover develops, the sheer dynamic of this system will still create a signficant severe weather event including a damaging squall line with possible embedded tornadic supercells, maybe even discrete tornadic supercells out ahead with the risk of an isolated strong tornado. If sun occurs tomorrow, then there is a dramatic increase in discrete tornadic supercells, and strong tornado risk.

FWIW, SPC insists on convection developing tonight in the warm sector, but current trends, and a look at the WV loop showing a mid level dry streak moving into the area, I'm not convinced whatsoever.

[wxmann_91]

Waiting for 0Z runs to come out, but for now, will post the 12Z NAM forecast soundings.

(from north to south)

Evansville: http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/2350 ... ing8bt.gif

Paducah: http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/3813 ... ing2wx.gif

Memphis: http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/1020 ... ing1de.gif

Notice that the further north, the better the SRH, but instability isn't so great, but further south, the worse the SRH, but instability is much better. Hodographs are large and curved. If the better dynamics were moved just a little more south, this would have the makings of a historic tornado outbreak. Of course, since yesterday, each successive run has trended toward more moisture and the better dynamics further south.

[conestogo_flood]

Are there any news stations that do live streaming video or audio on the internet that are located in the region that is to be affected? Or radio stations that some of you may know of.

Thanks, Mike.

[jhamps10]

weht- evansville,IN http://www.news25.us

[conestogo_flood]

For all severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings issued by the USA NWS, you can receive them live here: http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

The page updates every two minutes, or you can hit refresh at any time.

[jhamps10]

folks here is my advice to ANYONE in a threat area tonight. Make sure you have a disaster plan in place, have NOAA weather radios or an am radio. Most people don't realize that if a torando hits, chances are that the fm stations will be knocked out. Folks just be prepared, have a place to meet if a storm hits while you are at school or work. that's just some small safety tips and planning tips.

[wxmann_91]

Here's the 0Z NAM forecast soundings.

Evansville: http://img418.imageshack.us/img418/4584 ... ng28ad.gif

Paducah: http://img418.imageshack.us/img418/1268 ... ng27er.gif

Memphis: http://img418.imageshack.us/img418/3527 ... ng27vu.gif

Well, the 0Z models are a bit more pessimistic on the possibility of a major outbreak. Note the major dropoff of SRH on the Memphis fcst sounding. Overall all the progged SRH values have dropped this run, although the progged instability has increased.

For those who are interested (I forgot to post this the last time), here is the source: http://www.wxcaster.com/model_skewt.htm

[isobar]

Got our first Tornado Watch. Had some dramatic changes with the warm front passage today, impressive moisture advection. DP at noon was 37º, right now it's 60º.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM UNTIL
500 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE
ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 862...

DISCUSSION...E/W WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PARAMETERS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELL...PARTICULARLY IN
ENHANCED AREA LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[jhamps10]

looks like an all nighter for EMA officals.