Morehead, NC hints at something...

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Morehead, NC hints at something...

#1 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:19 am

This is a special wx statement issued for my area at O' dark 30 (5:30)
...A STRONG EARLY SEASON STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND RACING UP THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THE SYSTEM TAPPING MOIST GULF AIR...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
IN MONDAY FROM THE SOUTH. AN INCH OR TWO OR RAINFALL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY WHILE OVER THE AREA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DELIVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

PERSONS WITH PRE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO WEATHER FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREPARE TO ADJUST
TRAVEL PLANS ACCORDINGLY AS THE STORM AND COLD AIR TO FOLLOW COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL LEADING UP TO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
The area that I bolded is VERY intresting, a hint at some frozen stuff come right before Thanksgiving??? Seems possible according to that... I think anyways... :lol: Come on snow!!! I don't want to go to school on wednesday, even if it is a make-up half-day... :P
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#2 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:29 am

Sterling's giving us an interesting call as well:

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE VA CAPES
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UA SHOWS THAT THE MID LEVEL TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PUNCHING A BIT OF
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH AT BAY. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN TO REFLECT A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY
FORECAST OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWFA.

FOR TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT POPS OVER THE SW CWA
AS PCPN MAY REACH THAT PART OF THE WORLD AROUND SUNRISE.

............

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NEAR TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN STATES TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A COASTAL STORM... THEN A TRAILING
CLIPPER FOR LATE WED NIGHT EARLY THU MORN. IN BETWEEN A SHOT OF -10
TO -12C 850MB AIR SLIDES IN FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPS ON WED.

FIRST MONDAY AND TUESDAY... LOW MOVES UP FROM DIXIE AND THRU ORF OR
THAT VICINITY MON EVE AROUND 00Z. TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAYS THINKING WHICH WILL RAISE CONFIDENCE AND POPS. THEN THE
STORM MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE
A GOOD SET UP FOR SNOW IN JANUARY... IT SEEMS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AFTER THE LOW MOVES PAST AND NW
WINDS DRAG DOWN MUCH COLDER AIR. UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOWS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT. STILL A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

THEN A WINDY DAY TUE AS THE STORM WINDS UP OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN. CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.

BY WED...QUICK MINI RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE TRAILING CLIPPER.
SHOULD SHUT OFF STRONG WINDS AND UPSLOPE.

WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING LATEST GFS AT 00Z STILL HAS A
SIZABLE CLIPPER DIVING DOWN WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH IT.
THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE... BUT STILL WORTHY OF MENTION AT THIS
POINT. WITH 850MB TEMPS SUBZERO OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE SE TIP OF
OUR CWA... AND THE NIGHTTIME PASSAGE... PRECIP TYPE WOULD LEAN
TOWARDS A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW.

VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES WED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST GFS MOS HAS HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40 FOR WED THRU FRI
FOR THE CITIES.




Note they play down the moist clipper coming in for turkey day, not sure which why that one will go. Either way, it's going to be an interesting week.

Luckily, we don't have to go to school Wednesday either way, we've got ourselves a nice little 5-day weekend to enjoy!
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#3 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:08 pm

My mom is going to get stuck up in New York with this huge winter storm. Im not happy i wish i was there!
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#4 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:26 pm

Update:
...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING AND THEN RAPIDLY ADVANCE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHILE OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SECTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE OUTER BANKS REGION WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WHILE INLAND WINDS
SHOULD REACH THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND THE WINDS IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD GUST TO NEAR 45 MPH.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS AND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH INLAND.

PERSONS WITH PRE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO WEATHER FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREPARE TO ADJUST
TRAVEL PLANS ACCORDINGLY AS THE STORM AND COLD AIR TO FOLLOW COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL LEADING UP TO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#5 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:57 pm

Oh boy winters coming in strong i dont like it.
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#6 Postby MGC » Sun Nov 20, 2005 5:19 pm

Nice tight low forming in GOM about 200 miles south of Pensacola. Should move up the coast Monday. If it tracks up over the gulf stream than this could be a pretty good Nor'Easter......MGC
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38092
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#7 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 20, 2005 5:20 pm

MGC wrote:Nice tight low forming in GOM about 200 miles south of Pensacola.


Yep... cold cold cold soaking rain late tonight/tomorrow. If only it were a little later in the season... perfect setup for a snowstorm.

:slime:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#8 Postby MGC » Sun Nov 20, 2005 5:22 pm

Yea Brenty, I'm hoping for an active southern branch of the jet this winter season. I'd like to see snow again this winter plus we could use the moisture as it has been very dry here on the Miss coast since Katrina.....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#9 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 5:30 pm

That low is going to cause severe weather in FL tomorrow. yes it could be strong.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38092
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#10 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:16 pm

MGC wrote:Yea Brenty, I'm hoping for an active southern branch of the jet this winter season. I'd like to see snow again this winter plus we could use the moisture as it has been very dry here on the Miss coast since Katrina.....MGC


Yeah, we've been pretty dry here as well, but are expecting 1-2 inches tonight/tomorrow. :D

Now bring on the snow.

:hoola:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#11 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 8:42 pm

LWX just put in snow for Thanksgiving day/night, looks like that remark about the GFS having too moist of a clipper has been, well, disregarded. Snow in November here is a rarity, the question is will the moisture from the rain Monday into Tuesday keep the ground too warm for the snow to stick? I sure hope not . . .
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#12 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:01 pm

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
QUICKLY AND ON TRACK TO AFFECT ERN NC OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD AREA LATE AFTN INTO EVENING...
AND MODELS PERSISTENT IN INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NRN SECTIONS
AROUND 03-06Z. WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN MID LVLS BUT DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL LIMIT PCPN POTENTIAL...THUS FEEL 30 POP N AND 20 S
SUFFICIENT. THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1540/1318 AT 06Z OVER NRN
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME
. W TO SW WINDS PRODUCE WARMER
TEMPS FRI AND DOWNSLOPING WILL PROHIBIT ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF FRONT. STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FREEZE FRI NIGHT
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS THAT HAVE NOT HAD WIDESPREAD TEMPS BELOW 32 SO
FAR THIS FALL.
YES!!! first time this year they have mentioned snow!!! Could I get snow tonight??? We shall see, temps are ONLY suppose to get down to 38* but are already at 41*!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#13 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:02 pm

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
QUICKLY AND ON TRACK TO AFFECT ERN NC OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD AREA LATE AFTN INTO EVENING...
AND MODELS PERSISTENT IN INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NRN SECTIONS
AROUND 03-06Z. WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN MID LVLS BUT DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL LIMIT PCPN POTENTIAL...THUS FEEL 30 POP N AND 20 S
SUFFICIENT. THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1540/1318 AT 06Z OVER NRN
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME
. W TO SW WINDS PRODUCE WARMER
TEMPS FRI AND DOWNSLOPING WILL PROHIBIT ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF FRONT. STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FREEZE FRI NIGHT
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS THAT HAVE NOT HAD WIDESPREAD TEMPS BELOW 32 SO
FAR THIS FALL.
YES!!! first time this year they have mentioned snow!!! Could I get snow tonight??? We shall see, temps are ONLY suppose to get down to 38* but are already at 41*!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Tstormwatcher
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3086
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:31 pm
Location: New Bern, NC

#14 Postby Tstormwatcher » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:44 pm

No snow tonight, temp in James city have gone up 3 degrees this last hour. Have tp wait until stronger cold outbreak comes this way.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#15 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:59 pm

Tstormwatcher wrote:No snow tonight, temp in James city have gone up 3 degrees this last hour. Have tp wait until stronger cold outbreak comes this way.
i no, temps here went from 41* to 45* in less than a hour, BUT:
SHIELD OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ASCD WITH WAA IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA ATTM.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CAP TEMP FALLS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING CEASES. HAVE NOTED SOME LIGHT RAIN UPSTREAM BUT
NOTHING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT. WITH DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...DEW POINTS
IN THE 20S...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND EARLY IN THE EVENT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S. WITH DEW
POINTS SO LOW FEEL TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW CURRENT FORECAST LOWS BY
EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN LEVELING OFF AGAIN
. CLOUDS AND WEATHER LOOK
GOOD ATTM WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE SOUTH.
Temps COULD drop lower than 35*!!! pray for it to happen... :wink:
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brent, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot] and 35 guests